MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEKRace Date: 07/04/2025

Belmont Derby Picks

Belmont at Saratoga, Race 9, Belmont Derby (G1), Post Time-5:45 PM ET

5
Test Score
6
Final Gambit
1
Tank
3
Luther

Overview: The Belmont Derby (G1) is the feature race on the 4th of July and for good reasons. You have several high-profile runners as well as an intriguing European import. The name that will jump off the page to most casual fans is #6 Flying Mohawk (5/2) who ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after qualifying for the race by winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). We have seen turf/synthetic horses do well at Churchill Downs over the years, but it is always a slight concern to see how they run back on their prior surface after such a taxing race on the dirt. Another Kentucky Derby (G1) and Jeff Ruby (G3) alum running on Friday is #8 Flying Mohawk (6/1) who is more accomplished on the grass than Final Gambit but lacks the big speed figures. However, beyond those two #5 Test Score (4/1) for trainer Graham Motion and #3 Luther (6/1) are intriguing choices as the former has been in rock solid form recently while the latter is coming over from the United Kingdom where he faced significantly tough competition.

#5 Test Score (4/1) – Due to the race having minimal pace, I ended up siding with Test Score as my top choice over deep closer Final Gambit. Test Score has come back as a new horse since taking a brief freshening this spring as he’s run well in a pair of graded stakes race in Kentucky. He won the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland with an impressive late kick and then finished second to Zulu Kingdom in the American Turf (G1) at Churchill Downs. Zulu Kingdom, of course, is your 6/5 favorite in the Manila (G3) which is the race that immediate preceded the Belmont Derby (G1). The horse always runs honest and his last two efforts have each earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), which are the top turf figures in the field. There are few trainers I trust more on the turf in a big spot than Graham Motion who has been patiently training this son of Lookin at Lucky down at Fair Hill. You rarely get eye-popping times in morning works over the tracks down there, but the facility is outstanding at building up conditioning for horses, which is exactly what you want to see as the horse stretches out to nine furlongs for the first time. His other main advantage is his running style. In a race where Tank is the only obvious speed and there is a question mark of whether Flying Mohawk, with blinkers on, will press, you could see a situation where jockey Manny Franco has Test Score sitting as close as second in the early going. He will most certainly get first crack at the leader, which might be the setup you want in a race where they go 50 seconds or slower to the half mile. Projecting pace in a New York turf race can be a fool’s errand, but assuming it will be slower than you think is usually a safe bet.

#6 Final Gambit (5/2) – The fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (G1) has strong credentials coming into Friday’s headlining race. After taking a few tries to break his maiden, he finally did so in impressive manner at Turfway Park over the synthetic where he followed it up with a rousing victory by over three lengths in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). His 98 BSF in the Kentucky Derby (G1) towers over the field, but, of course, that was a figure on dirt, which tends to earn higher speed figures. He came back from that race to run in the Matt Winn (G3), which was always going to be a disaster as it was a four-horse field with no pace, and he looked like a one-paced horse. The race did not give him the fractions to run at and he was simply chased lone speed the whole way around. The question is whether he can win on turf. Yes, he has tremendous turf pedigree as he is sired by Not This Time and his dam, who is by Tapit, was a turf runner. However, the horses’ only attempt on the grass came in debut where he finished third at Churchill Downs despite making a furious rally from the back of the field. Interestingly enough, the winner of that race, Maui Strong, is also running on Friday in the Manila (G3) as a 15/1 longshot. In a race with minimal pace and a horse that has never won on the turf, I would prefer not to take a short price. He will be nearly impossible to leave off your horizontal wagers, though you could gain big advantage in the Pick 5 pools by taking him off your ticket and if you get through this leg then you’ll be sitting pretty going into the last two races.

#1 Tank (12/1) – Carlos David’s son of Adios Charlie might not have the connections and pedigree of the competition on Friday but dismissing him would be dangerous. He represents lone speed in field filled with closers and no obvious challenger to him on the front end, which means jockey Luis Saez should be able to divvy out the fractions as he sees fit. However, Tank is far more than just a rabbit as the Florida-bred is coming off three straight stakes victories, the last two of which came against open company at Gulfstream Park. His poor efforts can easily be explained as his second career start where he finished eighth was on the dirt and he clearly does not like that surface. When he raced in the Pulpit Stakes, he completely missed the break because his head was turned and was forced to come from the back, which is not his game. His only other poor start was on the synthetic, which again can be explained as a surface preference. When you isolate his turf races and the five times gotten a fair start, he has never missed the exacta and has three wins. His Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) have been steadily improving since getting back on the grass and it is possible he has another level until he hits his ceiling. His 87 BSF last time out has the second best turf Beyer in the field, so at 12/1 he represents outstanding value given his running style and more.

#3 Luther (6/1) – European invaders always get respect at the betting windows in North American turf racing, but that is, in part, because they are trained by the likes of Aidan O’Brien, John and Thady Gosden, or Charlie Appleby. Meaning no disrespect to trainer Charlie Fellowes, but he is not a household name among North American racing fans. However, Luther is a nice horse, and Fellowes is bringing over veteran UK jockey Kieran Shoemark who has won plenty of big races in Europe. As for the horse, the son of undefeated legend Frankel, is coming off a disappointing 15th-place finish in the Jockey Club (G1) in Chantilly, France where he lost to the highly regarded Camille Pissarro. However, that race was over softer ground and he typically has run better over firmer courses, which should be the face on Friday. The key race to look at is his fourth-place finish to Henri Matisse two back in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (G1) as he ran a 107 TimeForm Rating while facing off against some of the best runners of his age and distance in Europe. Yes, he has never run over a mile, but stretching out is rarely in issue for European horses as they are accustomed to covering uneven terrain on their courses and can regularly get an extra half furlong or full furlong when running over the flat, well-manicured ovals of the United States. I will be eager to see how he is bet since he does not have the same high-profile connections many Saratoga fans are used to seeing this time of year. If he were to float up from his 6/1 morning line he comes a horse you must consider using up top.