Beldame Stakes Picks

Analysis: The Beldame (G2) is a short field, but it provides bettors an opportunity to potentially single or play against a heavy favorite in the Late Pick 5 sequence. #5 Randomized (1/2) is a horse that I regularly fade because she is the type that fades when pressed up front. The Chad Brown runner can run big races as evidenced by her victory in the 2024 Ogden Phipps (G1), 2023 Alabama (G1) and Beldame (G2), or this year’s Molly Pitcher (G3). The key with all those efforts was securing an easy lead, nursing slow fractions, and then being able to hold off any late charges from the back. When she’s been pressed or failed to get the lead, she’s an automatic toss. However, on Friday it appears conditions will be in her favors unlike last time out in the Personal Ensign (G1) when she was pressed early and finished nearly 25 lengths behind Thorpedo Anna. One positive for Randomized is that she has shown the ability to bounce back from horrific efforts in the past such as when she won this year’s Molly Pitcher (G3) a race after losing by 28+ lengths. She should get an easy lead on Friday and gets jockey Flavien Prat in the irons. Additionally, her outside post position will make it easier on her to get to the front and gradually ease over in front of the field going into the first turn. Distance is never an issue with her and if she’s in the lead going into the first turn, she should take them all the way around.

When I have a 1/2 choice as my top selection, I am going to try and find something creative to do underneath, but a five-horse field limits the options. That said, #2 Margie’s Intention (6/1) at least gives you a little something for value in exactas as the Brad Cox trainee is coming off a third-place finish in the Alabama (G1). She has had a solid career with three wins in eight starts and only finished off the board once, which was in debut. The Louisiana-bred started her career with Brendan Walsh running down at Fair Grounds but moved up in class when she transitioned to the Cox barn when she took the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico. She picks up Cox’s #1 jockey at Aqueduct, Manny Franco, for the mount which should provide more confidence given Franco has won 27% of his mounts to start racing during the Belmont at the Big A Fall Meet. She has some speed and has shown the ability to sit close to the pace. Due to a lack of early speed, expect Franco to be aggressive with her out of the gate and get her positioned in a pocket trip behind Randomized so she can capitalize if Randomized should falter.

Meanwhile, #4 Majestic Oops (2/1) is your second choice and comes out of a third place showing in a Grade 1. However, the biggest difference between her and Margie’s Intention is that the latter ran 1 ¼ miles last time out while Majestic Oops exits the Ballerina (G1) at seven furlongs. The five-year-old daughter of Majestic Order showed the ability to run well going two turns two races back when she was second best to Randomized in the Molly Pitcher (G3). She is the biggest early speed threat to Randomized, but in their lone matchup together, she was nowhere near quick enough to challenge the favorite for early supremacy. I would imagine she will take up position in second going into the first turn and, like Margie’s Intention, try to get track down Randomized at the top of the stretch while keeping her honest on the fractions. The biggest issue is that Majestic Oops is stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time and jockey Kendrick Carmouche is unlikely to want to press the pass too much since he is attempting to get a distance with a horse that has a spotty record even going 1 1/16 miles.