Beaugay Stakes Picks

Pace: There is a chance for an honest pace in Sunday’s Beaugay (G3) as a few horses should want to be forwardly placed or are getting equipment changes. Starting from the inside, #3 Edict (20/1) has always been a fast horse, but trainer David Donk is adding blinkers, which seems likely to infuse even more speed. Right next door, #4 Raqiya (4/1) for trainer Todd Pletcher has had two starts in North America since coming over from the other side of the pond. She won the Goldikova (G3) in gate-to-wire fashion and then was more one-paced in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1). I would imagine jockey Frankie Dettori will return to his frontrunning strategy on Sunday. Finally, #5 No Mo Candy (9/2) will be coming back from a lengthy layoff and feeling fresh in addition to being a horse that is naturally placed in a forward position. When you add all of that up, it would seem to equal an honest pace, but you never know until they head into the first turn. As a result, I do like horses coming from off the pace who should be able to use their closing kick.

#4 Raqiya (4/1) – The former stakes winner in Great Britain came over to the United States last year at Del Mar and captured the Goldikova (G3) for previous trainer Owen Burrows. The four-year-old daughter of Blue Point then was transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher who does not typically take on many former European runners. Pletcher and Shadwell Stables were ambitious playing this horse in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational (G2) right off the change in barns where she ran fifth in an 11-horse field after breaking from the inside rail. The stark contrast between those efforts was the trip he received under jockey Frankie Dettori. In the Goldikova, Dettori went straight to the front and wired the field as opposed to in the PWC Filly & Mare Turf Invitational (G1) where he rated behind horses and never made an impact. He clearly is a horse that would appreciate being on the lead and Dettori stays aboard for Sunday’s trip. He will have to contend with some potential speed to his inside as well as No Mo Candy to his outside, but if Dettori can get Raqiya in a forward position she has a chance to run well. She’s been training regularly since that effort, but did have a three-week gap in workouts from late March to mid-April but came back with two strong works leading up to this one. She has loads of ability and should get a more effective trip for her running style on Sunday, particularly when you look at the fractions she will likely want to carve on the front end as she went 48.1 seconds to the half mile in the Goldikova (G3) win, which suits the pace of New York turf races rather nicely.

#1 Grayosh (3/1) – Trainer Chad Brown has three in this race, but I have always been partial to Grayosh who should sit a useful trip behind the early pace. Jockey Flavien Prat remains aboard this 2024 Lake Placid (G2) winner who is making her first start since October of last year. Brown is always excellent off the layoff though and the daughter of Yoshida has had 11 official workouts leading up to her 2025 debut. While she has had some races where she has tried to close from the back of the field, the reality is she is significantly more effective sitting a tracking trip as she did breaking her maiden and winning the Lake Placid. Additionally, note her post position in both of those victories was the inside rail where she is stationed again for Sunday. I think Prat lets the speed run out and then sits a perfect pocket trip while saving ground and then waits for a hole to open on the rail (and it always does) or tips her out at the top of the stretch. Prat has been on fire down at Churchill Downs on the turf and dirt during Kentucky Derby weekend and is in one of those grooves jockeys can get in when it seems like every move they make is the right one. I like the placement Brown chose to bring her back and think this will be launching pad to a successful 2025 campaign. While I am trying to beat her as my top selection, she would be included in all of my horizontal wagers.

#2 Heredia (9/2) – A true X-factor and another horse I would seriously consider using on my Late Pick 5 ticket, the Graham Motion trainee is making her first start in 19 months having not run since October 2023 when she finished third in the Sun Chariot (G1) against Inspiral who was one of the best turf horses in the world at that time. He is a Group 3 winner at Sandown and obviously had a lot of class, but has not been seen for quite a while. Motion has been working the six-year-old mare down in South Florida since late February and her work pattern would suggest she should be fit for this race. She has faced the best company in the field and could dominate this field if she’s able to bring her previous form off the bench. Motion is very solid trainer off the layoff and has success with horses making their first start in North America. Obviously, if she can fire near her best then she is a major factor in this race, but quite frankly, that is anyone’s guess. Still, in a field where several of the main contenders are coming back from a layoff, why not take a shot with a horse who has the best back class for a trainer who knows how to get things done in these spots.

#7 Dynamic Pricing (7/2) – The dreaded “other Chad” is the four-year-old daughter of Night of Thunder. Trainer Chad Brown makes a habit of entering several of his horses in the big stakes races and while his favored horse often makes the most logical sense, you also see his “other” horses upset the field to win. Dynamic Pricing could certainly be that horse, particularly with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard who always gives this filly a strong ride. She won last May in the Edgewood (G2) at Churchill Downs over a yielding turf course but has not won since despite some very close efforts including one to her stablemate Grayosh in the Lake Placid (G2). She is coming off an even longer layoff that Grayosh though having not run since September. She appears capable of running a big number that would put her in the winner’s circle, but she is a deep closer who will likely want some additional pace. She might get it if the three primary speed horses were all sent, but we have all watched enough New York turf races to do know they might very well go 50 seconds to the half mile, which puts her at a disadvantage. The fact her lone non-maiden victory was over a yielding turf course and the fact she will be giving up ground while her stablemates get the jump give me some hesitancy to support her at a shorter price.