Bayakoa Stakes (G3)

The Bayakoa (G3) is a field of six, which might preview some of the fillies and mares that will try to test the reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, later this season in the Distaff Division. The best among this group is #6 Loved (9/5) who is your morning line favorite and certainly comes in with the best Beyer Speed Figures as well as TimeFormUS figures as well. She towers over the field in that regard, but her last race could serve as an exception or a harbinger of things to come. Her victory in the Fall City (G3) was her first graded stakes win and the first win of her career to come off Lasix. Prior to that she had been 4-5 winning with Lasix and 0-4 even hitting the board without Lasix. Trainer Brendan Walsh is someone for whom I have a lot of respect, but he does struggle a little with horses coming off a 60-100-day layoff in dirt graded stakes races over the last five years where he is 0-10 winning. That said, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has the bloodlines to be successful as she is the half-sibling to six-time graded stakes winner Maxfield who was another Godolphin-bred runner trained by Walsh. On the track, she has okay early speed, but will likely sit mid-pack, though the lack of early pace might push her closer to the front and she has the strongest closing kick in the group. Look for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to save some ground and make sure she stays within earshot of the leader. Another horse who will likely sit a similar trip and won without Lasix for the first time in her last effort in #3 Little Jaime (4/1) for trainer Bobby Medina and jockey Ramon Vazquez. The daughter of Collected has not won much in her career with just two victories, but she is 8-13 hitting the board and has some versatility in her running style having gotten to the winner’s circle by closing from off the pace and while sitting on the lead. Her victory last month in the Wayward Lass Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs earned her a career-best 85 Beyer Speed Figure, which is still nine points south of Loved’s best effort, but it narrowed the gap in case the favorite does not fire. She presents good value in a race where she has run against some of the best in the group having knocked heads with Miss Justify, Scalable, Chatalas, and Gun Song. The horse that is likely to be on the lead is #2 Wild Bout Hilary (10/1) and you could make a case for the daughter of Midnight Lute to be the upset pick. She has some muddied running lines having raced on turf and synthetic as well in a couple of off-turf races. What does appear to be true is that stretching her out from sprinting was the right move as she is 2-2 winning at the distance and she can handle a wet or fast track (conditions point to a fast track on Saturday). Should she get loose on the lead, she might be dangerous to track down coming off a victory last time out in the Pago Hop Stakes at Fair Grounds. She has yet to answer the Lasix question as all her victories have come with Lasix with her two efforts without Lasix leading to an eighth- and 11th-place finish, though you could argue one of those efforts put her on the bench for five months and the other was on the wrong surface for her (synthetic). Finally, the horse that will likely get the first crack at her is #1 Corningstone (2/1). The Kenny McPeek trainee has won her last two races, which were both listed stakes contests at Oaklawn Park, but I think there are some legitimate questions to be asked. She has never been particularly fast with a career-best 85 Beyer Speed Figure, which came two back over a wet track in the Mistletoe Stakes. She has done a nice job beating the mare Taxed in each of her last two starts, but she can also be a little bit of a money burner as she lost three of the last five times she went off as favored. While Loved is likely your post time favorite, expect Corningstone to take a good amount of money in the win pools. She can win gate-to-wire and coming from just off the pace, so she has the sort of versatility you are looking for and jockey Julian Leparoux is having a resurgent 2025 meet at Oaklawn Park.