BAQ Track Stats Week Four

BELMONT AT THE BIG A TRACK STATS

Throughout the Fall Belmont meet hosted at Aqueduct, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis will provide updated weekly Track Stats. Get the latest stats updated through 10/6/24.

WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?

Track Stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform at different distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform to have the ideal winning trip.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting.

POST TIME FAVORITE ANALYSIS

Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 33.3% rate during four weeks at Belmont at the Big A. Looking beyond just favorites, 61.7% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 14.9% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.

From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.55 (-22.5% ROI) during the meet at Belmont at the Big A. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Average Dirt Field Size – 7.94
Average Turf Field Size – 9.53
Average OFF TURF Field Size – 6.71
Average overall Field Size – 8.58

Favorites by Level

• Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 34.4%
• Maiden Optional Claiming race favorites – 0.0%
• Maiden Claiming race favorites – 23.5%
• Claiming race favorites – 25.0%
• Optional Claiming race favorites – 37.5%
• Allowance race favorites – 44.4%
• Stakes race favorites – 40.9%

Favorites by Distance/Surface

• Dirt sprint favorites – 41.3%
• Dirt one-turn mile favorites – 26.1%
• Dirt two-turn favorites – 33.3%
• Turf sprint favorites – 26.1%
• Turf route favorites – 28.2%
• OFF TURF sprint favorites – 66.7
• OFF TURF one-turn mile favorites – 66.7%
• OFF TURF two-turn favorites – 0.0%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt Sprints Winners (n=46)

• 45.7% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 45.7% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 8.6% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

Dirt One-Turn Mile Winners (n=23)

• 34.8% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 47.8% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 17.4% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=3)

• 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 100% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

Turf Sprint Winners (n=23)

• 34.8% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 47.8% have been tracking within 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
• 17.4% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

Inner Turf Routes Winners (n=28)

• 17.9% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 32.1% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 50.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

Outer Turf Routes Winners (n=11)

• 27.2% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 36.4% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 36.4% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF Sprint Winners (n=3)

• 33.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 66.7% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF One-Turn Mile Winners (n=3)

• 33.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 66.7% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF Two-Turn Winners (n=1)

• 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 100% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.