Azeri Stakes Picks

This weekend promises to be one of the most exciting yet, as the Grizzly returns for the first time since dominating the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with ease. Yes, I’m talking about the reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna. She made waves at Saratoga and in pop culture when she nearly became the first filly to win the Travers Stakes since 1915. Although I love to recall the weeks leading up to that performance, as well as Travers Stakes morning when we saw crowds of pink swarming into the track to snag a Grizzly hat bright and early, I won’t belabor how special this horse is… but let’s remember who we’re dealing with here.

After winning three Grade 1s in a row against her division, Thorpedo Anna had nothing left to prove. In the Travers, she came up just a nose short of closing on Champion 2-year-old Fierceness and put away Champion 3-year-old Sierra Leone and Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. Following that incredible performance, she secured two more Grade 1 wins to wrap up the year, including one against older fillies and mares. If you haven’t seen the jockey camera footage during that race, I highly recommend checking it out as it’s mesmerizing to see her demeanor and the fact that you can’t see another horse next to her at any point in the race as she takes them gate-to-wire.

Now, #1 Thorpedo Anna enters the Azeri Stakes (G2) as the 2-5 morning line favorite in a field of seven. She’s breaking from the rail, which shouldn’t be a concern given her success from the rail in the Travers. While she’s fast enough to go wire-to-wire like she did in the Distaff, she also has the tactical speed to sit just off the leader and stalk comfortably. The #4 Wild Bout Hilary may try to get the lead, as she set the pace in her last three starts and looks to be the fastest of this field. She comes into this race off a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 84 and four back-to-back bullet works. It looks like they are putting her in prime condition to take on the Grizzly, but it just won’t be enough.

I’m sure you can guess where I’m headed with this next; I don’t foresee anyone beating Thorpedo Anna, but I’ll highlight two runners who are logical options to include underneath in a straight exacta.

The #2, Alpine Princess (6-1) is likely your most reliable option underneath. Her last three Beyer Speed Figures are 90 or higher, which is the closest anyone in this field has come to Thorpedo Anna’s numbers, aside from #3 Jody’s Pride, who ran a 95 last time out, but sprinting. Alpine Princess is a two-time stakes winner and should have the pace she needs to stalk. This is her third start off a layoff, so she may improve, and we know the distance won’t be an issue. Trainer Brad Cox has finished in the money in 36 of 60 Graded Stakes starts at Oaklawn Park over the last five years (60%), adding confidence. Both Alpine Princess and Recharge, my second pick, exit the Houston Ladies Classic (G3), which has produced winners of both the Azeri (G2) and Apple Blossom (G1).

#5 Recharge (12-1) has some speed and won her last three starts in wire-to-wire fashion, the last two facing older horses. We saw her set the pace in the Fantasy (G2) last year and come back to finish last in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), but the layoff after that seemed to serve her well. She won her last three starts and ran a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of a 90 last time out at this same distance. Although that was at a big price, the daughter of Gun Runner seems to be headed in the right direction for trainer Steve Asmussen and is a logical option to look for some value underneath Thorpedo Anna.

Now, I’m glad some interesting horses are showing up to take on the Grizzly, but she towers over this field night and day. This is just the first start of her 4-year-old campaign, at the same track she began her 3-year-old campaign. Although I am clearly riding with #1 Thorpedo Anna, I encourage you to reach out on @nyrabets to debate her chances on Saturday if you have a different opinion. If you aren’t trying to beat the Grizzly, let me know how much she will win by and who you are playing underneath. My guess? 6 lengths.