Ashland Stakes (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

Look for an aggressive early pace in this year’s running of the Ashland, as several runners will show good speed out of the gate. The fastest might be #5 Omaha Bay, who is coming up from Gulfstream Park, where she established early leads in both her six-furlong maiden and in the Davona Dale (G2) last time out. To her inside, Mark Casse’s #4 French Friction also has great early speed and is stretching out from sprint-to-route for the first time, which should only accentuate the speed she has shown at shorter distances. Finally, #2 Percy’s Bar, who has had success at Keeneland in multiple races but has shown multiple running styles as well. The fact that she hasn’t raced in 150+ days, combined with trainer Ben Colebrook drilling bullet workouts leading up to Friday, would point to the filly feeling fresh and going forward. The pace scenario would seem to set up well for favorite #3 Zany, who is versatile enough to come from off the pace against this group but will not give herself too much to do. Keeneland can be known as a bit of a merry-go-round on the main track, but it’s hard to predict track trends on the Opening Day of the Spring Meet.

Analysis

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won three of the last five renewals of the Ashland (G1) with Leslie’s Rose, Nest, and Malathaat, the latter of whom went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) a month later. This year, he brings #3 Zany (4-5) to Lexington as your favorite, as the undefeated daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has never been seriously tested in her three career starts. While she has not been seen since the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs nearly two months ago, she still might be the most impressive three-year-old filly I have seen this year. Other fillies might have run faster Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), but none have looked as dominant on the track as Zany. She debuted in November of last year at Gulfstream Park, going six and a half furlongs before stepping up to the Demoiselle (G2) in her second start, going nine furlongs, where she crushed the competition by over eight lengths. The performance put her atop many Oaks standings and indicated she is a filly who would relish distance. She took some time off over the winter before returning in the Suncoast, where she came from further off the pace but made a decisive move around the turn before putting away the field in the stretch. While she was still green for jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., she was never even asked for her best, which is notable since runner-up Life of Joy came back in her next start to dominate the Fair Ground Oaks (G2), which served to flatter the form of Zany. Pletcher has had her on a steady diet of workouts down at Palm Beach Downs, and the pace dynamics should set up perfectly for her since Ortiz Jr. can play the break and get a position tracking the leaders from the inside. I am expecting a big performance out of a filly I believe is still the one to beat for next month’s Kentucky Oaks (G1).

A huge x-factor in this race is #2 Percy’s Bar (7-2) for trainer Ben Colebrook. The daughter of Upstart has not been seen on the track since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last October, but she emerges in a final round prep race where she needs to finish first or second to earn a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has only started working regularly in the mornings in mid-February, but she has put up four straight bullet workouts leading up to her 2026 debut over the track at Keeneland. It’s notable that Colebrook brings her back at Keeneland since she clearly loves the track as she broke her maiden there in one of the first juvenile races of 2025 last spring before returning in the fall and crossing the wire first in the Alcibiades (G1). She was disqualified to second, which I felt was a weak DQ as she was much the best that afternoon over Tommy Jo who was put up in her place. Nevertheless, she held her own next time out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) where she was one of the few horses to make up significant ground in a race that was dominated up front. The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) has come back as a productive race as it featured three fillies who are among the top contenders for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) this year in Explora, Meaning, and Bottle of Rouge, who have combined to win five of their six starts as three-year-olds. My biggest question about Percy’s Bar is conditioning. She is coming off a lengthy layoff with five workouts under her belt, and while she has been doing it nicely in the morning, translating that into the afternoon when she faces pace pressure is another factor altogether. Additionally, over the last five years, Colebrook is only 1-32 in graded stakes races, but that number could easily be 2-32 if not for the disqualification in the Alcibiades (G1) last fall. I think she will run well, but could tire late.

A horse that might be a bit of a price come post time is #7 Star Actress (6-1) for trainer Bill Mott. The daughter of Justify is bred for this type of race as she is the full sibling to the former Champion 2-Year-Old Female Just F Y I, who ran second in this race two years ago before finishing second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) to Thorpedo Anna. Star Actress is coming into this race off the heels of a professional maiden-breaking effort in her second career start, where she tracked the pace and then made a winning move to the front under the ride of jockey Junior Alvarado, who remains on the mount for Friday. Her debut effort, where she finished second to Betty’s Pearl, was also a solid effort as she came from further back and was forced wide in a race that has produced three next-out winners. She should get ample pace in front of her, and the outside post position should ensure she has an easy trip tracking behind the pace in no worse than the two-path going into the first turn. She will need to move forward on her speed figures while switching off Lasix, which is a question mark for the Mott runners, as his horses are only 2-19 (11%) making such a move over the last five years. I do not view her as a win contender, but more so a horse to include in trifectas and supers that could be a decent price while picking up the pieces from a pace duel late in the race.

Finally, Mark Casse has #4 French Friction (9-2), who is stretching out and trying a Kentucky Oaks prep race for the first time. The daughter of City of Light has shown excellent speed in her two sprint victories, both in debut against maiden company and again in the Dixie Bell Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The latter race was perhaps aided by a wet track on a day that featured minimal passing at Oaklawn Park, as 9 of the 11 winners all sat no worse than the third position at the half-mile mark of their races. Nevertheless, the filly has great speed and was able to easily best stakes company in just her second start. From a pedigree standpoint, you could make the case either way about her getting 1 1/16 miles, as most of her siblings have done their best work on dirt at a mile or less, though her half-sibling Salute the Flag, who was sired by Curlin, won twice going that distance against allowance company. Meanwhile, City of Light has not been an overwhelming distance influence as a sire for his dirt progeny. Certainly, Fierceness is the best-case scenario, but when you look at the remaining top dirt progeny, they are nearly all sprinters. Over the last five years, Casse is 0-5 moving three-year-olds sprint-to-route in stakes races, but that small of a sample size is bound to have some skewed results. Still, of the shorter-priced runners, I am against her the most and will be leaving her off my Late Pick 5 ticket as I think there could be regression on her BSF once she stretches out.