Arlington Stakes Picks

Overview: This year’s Arlington Stakes (G3) features a competitive field of turf runners and a race that could feature a strong pace with the likes of Hershee, Silent Heart, and Mercante all pressing early fractions while others like Lagynos and Call Protection tracking the pace. It is a hard field to pin down as Mercante has the best speed figures of the group, but is only 1-5 on the turf, though his recent form has taken a significant jump for new trainer Brian Knippenberg. Beyond him, the field is evenly bunched in terms of speed figures, and many have taken turns winning different listed stakes and graded stakes races against each other. Pace feels like the defining variable in the race, and I would prefer to find horses who are coming from further off the pace as I expect they will get legitimate fractions in front of them on Saturday.

#9 Brilliant Berti (7/2) – The Cherie DeVaux runner is a deep closer and should benefit from the pace scenario that unfolds at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The Grade 3 winner returned to form last time out winning the Opening Verses Stakes at Churchill Downs, which was his second race off the bench, and he moved forward nicely after a dull eighth-place finish in the Muniz Memorial (G2) at Fair Grounds. I am typically willing to forgive poor turf form at Fair Grounds as the course is not preferred by all runners, and he is 0-2 hitting the board there in his career whereas he is 7-7 in the exacta at all other tracks. He is a perfect 4-4 winning under the twin spires of Churchill Downs and should get the ideal setup with several speed horses going out up front and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. can guide him over to the rail or two path going into the first turn to assure ground being saved. His patented closing kick was shown off last time out and he should be able to get angled out to come storming down the middle of the course. This horse likes to win as he has done so in six of nine career starts, which might not be as quantifiable as a speed figure but is something that can be the difference in an evenly matched race.

#4 Hershee (6/1) – If there was a little less speed signed on, I would have likely made Hershee my top choice. I have always liked this son of Twirling Candy trained by Helen Pitts who has trained the entire female family and all six siblings including Grade 2-placed turf router Joyful Applause. The horse is 5-6 hitting the board in his career with three wins including an impressive score over N2X allowance company at Keeneland last month, which was his first start in over five months. He earned a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and has consistently shown the ability to closely track strong fractions and finish. The issue on Saturday is that he might be the speed of the speed. He has never attempted to go gate-to-wire, but he will be the best inside speed in the field. He could allow Silent Heart and Mercante to cross over in front of him while sitting a pocket trip, but that presents its own challenges in terms of being too passive going into the first turn. This horse is due for a stakes win at a decent price and Saturday might be the day. If he can control things up front, maybe he can take them gate-to-wire, but there are a few more questions I have about the trip he carves out to have me put him on top.

#5 Lagynos (9/2) – Trainer Steve Asmussen has had a frustrating meet at Churchill Downs as he is only 3-70 winning (4%) but is 24-70 (34%) in the money. He has racked up a lot of underneath finishes but has not gotten through as often as he would like. His runner, Lagynos, has had similar issues during his career as he is only 4-16 winning, but 11-16 in the money. Always an honest runner, the son of Kantharos, won the Commonwealth (G3) on the turf last fall at Churchill Downs, which was his first victory at the track in five career starts. His recent speed figures are comparable to the rest of the field, and he finished just behind Brilliant Berti last time out. He will likely sit a tracking trip behind the early speed, which will allow jockey Flavien Prat to get first crack at the leaders. However, assuming the fractions are honest, you might want to be the last horse to make a move than the first. The horse is third back in the form cycle and should run his best effort, but it is hard to ignore the image of his last race where he got to the lead before getting tracked down by Brilliant Berti in the closing strides. He is a safe underneath play, but I am hesitant to use him on top of many tickets.

#8 Mercante (3/1) – Your morning line favorite is a bit of an X-factor. The son of Gun Runner who used to be trained by Bill Mott had a significant layoff and came back in the barn of Brian Knippenberg who slowly worked the horse through his conditions against allowance and optional claiming company over the last six months. During that stretch, his speed figures were largely aligned with what he was running prior to his 16-month layoff. However, when he ran in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G3) at Turfway Park in March he won and earned a 101 BSF, which was a 14-point improvement of his previous career-high. He proved in his next start in the Turf Classic (G1) that it was no fluke backing it up with another 101 BSF while finishing second to Spirit of St Louis. However, I am still not entirely sold he is simply a new horse who will routinely run triple-digit BSFs and am willing to try to beat him. He should be sitting close to a contest pace and could be facing faster fractions than he has seen in the past, particularly since he is cutting back a half furlong and facing horses like Hershee and Silent Heart who run faster fractions at this distance than he is accustomed to stalking. It is hard to toss him completely, but in a race where I could see the board being pretty flat, I would not want to take too low of a price on a horse whose only turf win came against maiden special weight competition in 2023.