Arkansas Derby (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

There will be an honest pace, but nothing unreasonable in this year’s Arkansas Derby (G1), which is a far cry from last year’s race where the leading pair set nuclear fractions setting the race up for a deep closer. The scratch of #7 Napoleon Solo (6-1) contributed to this slowed down pace projection as he was expected to be up near the lead. With him out of the picture, expect #1 Redland Rebels (15-1) to go to the lead using his good early speed from the inside post, which should set things up perfectly for #9 Litmus Test (5-1) for trainer Bob Baffert to closely stalk the early pace with horses like #3 Blackout Time (6-1) and #4 Bricklin (20-1) sitting near the pace, but neither horse needs to be on the lead. Oaklawn Park plays fair to all running styles, but if the pace is reasonable, you would like horses who will get first run on the leader rather than coming from well off the pace, which is the preferred running style of your morning line favorite #6 Renegade (3-2).

Analysis

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has not had much success in Kentucky Derby preps outside the friendly confines of California in recent years, but one track where he has had success historically is Oaklawn Park where he has won the race a record-tying five times, most recently in 2024 with Muth. This year he sends out the third choice on the morning line, #9 Litmus Test (5-1), who is coming off a dull third-place finish in the Rebel (G2) where he tired late after setting the pace. I believe we will benefit from that race and have improved conditioning for his nine-furlong test on Saturday. Additionally, Baffert has left this son of Nyquist at Oaklawn Park since his run in the Rebel and historically, Baffert is 6-8 (75%) winning when his entry has local workouts at Oaklawn Park leading up to a race. I also like that he draws outside on Saturday, which might seem counterintuitive since you might think that will force him wide. In the Rebel (G2), he was forced to go to the run because he broke from the rail, but his only two victories have come stalking off the pace. I suspect Redland Rebels sends from the inside and while horses like Blackout Time and Bricklin have good speed, Litmus Test should be able to sit off the hip of the leader going into the first turn. He has always felt like a horse who does better running at a target than when he is alone up front, so the change in tactics should suit him for this weekend. The other major factor is that Baffert is removing the blinkers, which is a plus move for the Hall of Famer. Over the last five years, his horses have won at a 34% race when switching blinkers off in graded stakes races. We saw it recently work with Goal Oriented when he won the Malibu (G1) back in December and he used the same move to winning effect with Rodriguez last year on the Derby Trail when he won the Wood Memorial (G2). I will admit that Baffert’s crop of Derby contenders is not as deep as it might have appeared at the beginning of the year, but Litmus Test checks a lot of boxes at an attractive price.

While I might be getting creative with my top pick, I am not fading #6 Renegade (3-2) who will absolutely be on my Late Pick 5 ticket for Saturday at Oaklawn Park. The Todd Pletcher trainee has had his form flattered more than nearly any other horse on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. His loss in the maiden ranks and again in the Remsen (G2) was to Paladin who came back to win the Risen Star (G2) and is going to be the favorite in next weekend’s Blue Grass (G1). Then last time out Renegade won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs by easily defeating The Puma, who came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his next start. He moved forward in that effort at Tampa Bay Downs and was assigned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), which will likely need to continue to improve should he want to get the upper hand on Litmus Test who has multiple races in his form that are faster. However, the lightly raced son of Into Mischief appears to be just scratching the surface and so easily dispatched his competition last time out that it’s hard not to get excited for his chances in the First Saturday in May. One potential issue is that he is a horse that traditionally comes from further off the pace and while there is some speed signed on for Saturday, I do not suspect an overwhelming amount of pace during the early stages of the race. He is likely hindered by the scratch of Napoleon Solo who would have injected more speed into the field, but he is also talented enough to close within blistering fractions. It is notable jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. opts to come to Oaklawn Park to ride Renegade since he also had the opportunity to ride Commandment in the Florida Derby (G1) and opted to stick with the Pletcher runner.

The horse that scares me the most in this race is #3 Blackout Time (6-1), who I believe is sitting on a monster race for trainer Kenny McPeek. The son of Not This Time was a highly regarded horse within the McPeek barn as a juvenile and hopes were deflated when he was a regulatory scratch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He was on the bench for five months prior to returning in the Rebel (G2) and ran like a horse that needed a race off the bench, which is typical for McPeek trainees as he often believes in letting horses run into shape. Blackout Time showed good initial speed and was within a neck of the pace during the middle stages of the race before fading late. McPeek got a pair of workouts into him since that effort, including a 47 second four-furlong bullet work at Oaklawn Park that was first of 90 on the day. The horse has good speed but doesn’t need the lead and could take a huge step forward on Saturday. His career-best BSF is on-par with Renegades and while he would need to improve significantly from his last effort, McPeek knows how to tighten the screws. That said, they also don’t need to win this race to get into the Kentucky Derby (G1) as he currently has 15 points. Likely, a third-place finish would get him into the starting gate though they might have to sweat out scratches and defections. Remember, Mystik Dan got third in the Arkansas Derby on his way to winning the roses, so the key is peaking at the right time.

I mean to disrespect to #2 Silent Tactic (5-2), but he is a play against for me in this spot as I felt he should have won the Rebel (G2) and stalled in the stretch going a shorter distance. I think he might be like a horse like Chip Honcho or a filly like Luv Your Neighbor who both ran well in the early preps at Fair Grounds but were left in the dust in the final round of preps when the competition went up a notch. Therefore, I am considering #5 Taptastic (20-1) as a longshot to include deeper underneath in your vertical wagers. The son of Tapit out of a Curlin mare is bread for distance and is the half sibling to Tuscan Gold and Contrary Thinking who is the most famous “rabbit” in our sport, but who was a nice allowance horse before being repurposed to be the horse who tried to set things up for Sierra Leone. The Steve Asmussen trainee debuted earlier this month over a muddy track and got the job done very professionally going a mile. He should appreciate more distance and sit a mid-pack trip under jockey Erik Asmussen who rode him to victory in debut. His 81 BSF from the debut effort is respectable enough compared to the other longer shots on the board and he could move forward from that effort while stretching out. We saw a horse like Emerging Market win a major prep off a maiden debut victory last week in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and while Taptastic isn’t quite in the same league as Emerging Market, he is a horse that could run up into something in a race where some horses might tap out at the distance.