AQU Track Stats Week Seven
Throughout the Fall and Winter Aqueduct meet, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis will provide updated weekly track stats.
What are track stats?
Track Stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform at different distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform to have the ideal winning trip.
Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the Fall/Winter meet at Aqueduct. Obviously, as the number of races increases, so will the reliability of the statistical trends we see throughout the meet.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Only main track (dirt) races are being used in the analysis since there is a very short window of turf racing during the Aqueduct fall meet and we will not be returning to turf until April, so the turf races that have been run during the first two weeks of the meet are excluded from all analysis.
Post Time Favorite Analysis
Overall, post time favorites in dirt races are winning at a 37.8% rate during the Aqueduct Fall/Winter Meet. Looking beyond just favorites, 71.4% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 9.1% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.
From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.76 (-12% ROI) during the Aqueduct Fall meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.
| Post Time Favorite Odds | Count | Win % | Top 3 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below even money | 59 | 50.8% | 84.7% |
| 1/1 to 9/5 | 123 | 34.9% | 73.2% |
| 2/1 to 3/1 | 59 | 30.5% | 71.2% |
| Higher than 3/1 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
Average overall Field Size – 7.46
Favorites by Level
- Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 33.3%
- Maiden Optional Claiming race favorites – 57.1%
- Maiden Claiming race favorites – 45.2%
- Claiming race favorites – 32.8%
- Optional Claiming race favorites – 42.9%
- Allowance race favorites – 36.1%
- Stakes race favorites – 33.3%
Favorites by Distance/Surface
- Dirt sprint favorites – 39.4%
- Dirt one-turn mile favorites – 39.6%
- Dirt two-turn favorites – 16.7%
Winning Trips Analysis
Sprint Winners (n=132)
| Wet Track (n=30) | Dry Track (n=102) | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading at ½ mile mark | 46.7% | 38.2% | 40.2% |
| Tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark | 33.3% | 50.0% | 46.2% |
| Closing from more than 3 lengths at ½ mile mark | 20.0% | 11.8% | 13.6% |
One-Turn Mile Winners (n=91)
| Wet Track (n=23) | Dry Track (n=68) | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading at ½ mile mark | 13.0% | 23.5% | 20.9% |
| Tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark | 60.9% | 61.8% | 61.5% |
| Closing from more than 3 lengths at ½ mile mark | 26.1% | 14.7% | 17.6% |
Two-Turn Winners (n=18)
| Wet Track (n=3) | Dry Track (n=15) | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading at ½ mile mark | 66.7% | 26.7% | 33.3% |
| Tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Closing from more than 3 lengths at ½ mile mark | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% |