Apple Blossom Stakes Picks

The Grade 1 Apple Blossom is finally here, and as excited as I am, I’ll be experiencing lots of FOMO come Saturday. Your morning line favorite, 6-Thorpedo Anna (2/5), who has been pointing to this race since last year, towers over the rest of the field on paper.

There are some questions about how good 5-Where’s My Ring has gotten recently, and her last race—as well as her morning line price of 5/2—indicates that she’ll be favored as the best shot to beat the Grizzly. Thorpedo Anna comes into this off her Azeri (G2) win, where I highlighted similar points about just how much better she is than the rest of her peers. Now, this will be a tougher task than the Azeri, as the aforementioned Where’s My Ring comes into this in the best form we’ve ever seen from her. Will it be enough to beat Thorpedo Anna?

6-Thorpedo Anna (2/5): You guessed it. Although she’s one of my favorite horses (not just fillies) ever, I did try my hardest to poke holes in her as a handicapper. I don’t see anyone in this field being able to beat her, but if you’re curious, stick around until the end, and I’ll admit who I think has a chance of beating her later this year. The filly in this field whose consistent form comes closest to hers, 3-Free Like a Girl, has a stablemate entered in 1-Sweet Alyssa, which indicates they’re giving Free Like a Girl the best shot possible to sit her ideal trip. I suspect that 1-Sweet Alyssa and 7-Wild Bout Hilary could be your leaders and that Anna will be sitting a tracking trip. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Brian Hernandez Jr. sends her straight to the lead—which she could get if she wanted—but I suspect they’ll sit her right off the main speed, and she’ll carve the trip out herself regardless of pace dynamics or positioning. She’s just that good and has proven it countless times, often despite not getting the easiest of trips. Thorpedo Anna is not only the only one who’s earned two triple-digit figures, but she’s also the only one with more than one win at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Where’s My Ring is the only other filly who has won at 1 1/8, taking the Gazelle (G3), but she had nothing running behind her that day and got a dream setup. Thorpedo Anna, the only Grade 1 winner in here, won three straight Grade 1s at 1 1/8 miles—the Kentucky Oaks, the Acorn, and the Coaching Club American Oaks—and then faced older fillies and mares in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, winning in gate-to-wire fashion. Instead of continuing to state the obvious about her, I’ll go through her biggest threats and who I’ll be playing underneath.

3- Free Like a Girl (10/1): I’ll be taking a shot with this ultra-consistent mare who never seems to put in a poor effort—especially at Oaklawn. Like Where’s My Ring, she’s battle-tested against top-class fillies. She finished 3rd in the Apple Blossom (G1) last year behind Adare Manor, defeating Shotgun Hottie, Taxed, and Wet Paint. She backed that effort up with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in a listed stakes and ran close to it last time out (89) when finishing 2nd to Thorpedo Anna in the Azeri (G2). Her overall body of work and consistency are better than Where’s My Ring’s if you exclude that one recent effort. I’ll be using her directly underneath, as she should provide better value than Where’s My Ring.

5- Where’s My Ring (5-2): A familiar foe of Anna’s, Where’s My Ring lost by a combined 40 ¼ lengths to her in the Kentucky Oaks and the Acorn. Now, she’s clearly found a new turn of foot, as indicated by her 12-length romp in an allowance race at Oaklawn last time out, where she earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103. Looking at her previous figures (77, 65, 66, 68), it’s hard to tell where that came from, and you’d imagine there’s a high chance she’ll regress. They tried her on the turf at Del Mar after her disappointing effort in the Acorn—she didn’t do any running there—then cut back to a 6F sprint before her big win at Oaklawn. Although it was visually impressive and looked strong on paper, I’m not sure who she beat that day. Those horses haven’t won many races in general, and certainly not any stakes races. She was the class of that field, so it makes sense that she dominated them. You have to take her figure seriously coming into this, but she’ll have to prove it wasn’t a one-off monster effort. And she’ll have to do it against the HOTY, who puts in consistently dominant efforts. She’ll also have to stretch back out to the 1 1/8-mile distance, and the style of her Gazelle (G3) victory doesn’t convince me that she can replicate that against Thorpedo Anna.

Now, my stance on this race is clear, but I’m not ruling out the possibility of Thorpedo Anna getting beat by the end of this year. I don’t believe it’ll be anyone in this group, but perhaps if Good Cheer continues to improve, I see the possibility of her being a major threat later this year. Reach out on @NYRABets and share your take on the points I raised about the Apple Blossom, as well as if you agree that Good Cheer can shake things up later this year.