Alysheba Stakes Picks

Pace: The Alysheba (G2) marks the return of Fierceness for his 2025 campaign. The sometimes-mercurial horse developed into one of the best in the division by the end of the year when he finished his 2024 campaign by winning the Jim Dandy (G2), Travers (G1), and finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He has outstanding early speed and will be part of the early pace scenario, but he will not be by himself as he can expect #3 Hall of Fame (4/1) to be close to the action as well as #5 Most Wanted (7/2). Even #6 This Is Uscar (30/1) has enough early speed to go and as a longshot it is hard to think the connections believe their best chance to win is to rate off the pace. As a result, despite the short field, Fierceness might not get an easy lead and will have to contend with a strong pace in his first race in six months. Look for his stablemate, #2 Locked (2/1), to enjoy the pace setup so long as he takes to what could be wet track conditions.

#2 Locked (2/1) – The four-year-old son of Gun Runner could have been a major player in last year’s Triple Crown races, but an injury derailed his 2024 season before it could start. The winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) was always long on talent and trainer Todd Pletcher took his time with this horse and it clearly has paid off. After returning in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct in October, which was his first action in 11 months, he was stepped up to the Cigar Mile (G1) where he beat Mullikin and Post Time who were both coming off in the money finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), respectively. He also bested horses like Book ‘em Danno and Nelson Avenue who went out to get major victories in their next start. From there he shipped down to South Florida and ran second in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) to White Abarrio who had a slightly better trip and followed that victory up with another resounding effort in the Ghostzapper (G3). Meanwhile, Locked finished ahead of Saffie Joseph Jr.’s other horse, Skippylongstocking, who won the Challenger (G3) in his next start. From Florida, Pletcher shipped Locked to California for the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) where the horse absolutely rolled going 1 ¼ miles while making up significant ground and pulling away by 8+ lengths on a traditionally speed-favoring track. The third-place finisher that day, Hit Show, came back to win a little race called the Dubai World Cup (G1) in his next start. Locked has emerged as one of the top horses in the older male division and could continue to cement that position on Friday. He has never handled a wet track, but his pedigree would indicate it is not an issue as Gun Runner offspring are winning over a wet track at a 20% clip and he is out of a Malibu Moon mare who produced a wet track winner. Expect for jockey Jose Ortiz to sit behind the pace and then move Locked around the turn and have him gobble up ground down the stretch as the embattled frontrunners begin to tire.

#5 Most Wanted (7/2) – The Brad Cox trainee got a late start to his racing career as he did not debut until June of his three-year-old season. In this way, he reminds me a bit of Cox’s runner Highland Falls who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last year as a four-year-old after having a very late start to his three-year-old campaign. As for Most Wanted, he won his first four races including the Oklahoma Derby (G3) before being a runner up in his last two appearances in the Clark (G2) and the Challenger (G3). He lost to Rattle N Roll in the former and Skippylongstocking in the latter. Those two are formidable runners and his effort in the Challenger (G3) was his first race back from a 3+ month layoff. He has been training well for Cox and his placement here should demonstrate the trainers confidence to put him against some of the best in the older division. He has outstanding early speed having won multiple times in gate-to-wire fashion, but he has shown the ability to stalk the pace from the second position, which seems like what jockey Florent Geroux will do on Friday with Fierceness breaking to his inside. He will be able to apply pressure throughout and be in a spot to make a move on the far turn and at the top of the stretch. I think the 1 1/16-mile distance of the race gives him the best chance of potentially holding off Locked who will come running late. The fact he is second back from the layoff is a huge plus and gives him a fitness and conditioning advantage over Fierceness.

#4 Fierceness (6/5) – The Champ Is Back! The great call by Frank Mirahmadi in last year’s Travers (G1) tells you all you need to know about Fierceness. He is back, but in what form, we must wait and see. Owner Mike Repole is one of the stars of the new Netflix series “Race for the Crown” and the self-proclaimed commissioner of racing will make a brash entrance at the Churchill Downs paddock and he hopes Fierceness does the same. The four-year-old son of City of Light’s talent was always obvious, but he struggled with consistency having turned in head-scratching performances in the Champagne (G1), Holy Bull (G3), and even the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he faded to 15th and became the first post time favorite in 12 years to miss the superfecta. However, it appears as if a light went on over the summer where he reeled off back-to-back wins against his biggest rival, Sierra Leone, before succumbing to a suicidal pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) where he still ran valiantly for second. There will be a wet track on Friday and Fierceness struggled over those conditions in his second start in the Champagne (G1). This will also be his first race in six months and the last time he came off the bench he ran a disappointing third in the Holy Bull (G3). Neither is to say that he cannot win, but at 6/5 I would much rather use his stablemate who is in peak condition right now. Fierceness will have to contend with speed to his inside (Hall of Fame) and his outside (Most Wanted) while running for the first time in half a year. Connections opted to run here rather than return in the Westchester (G3) at Aqueduct the day after the Kentucky Derby and the reason seems both financial as well as horse-related. Fierceness has been working very well and could be ready for a bigger test than what the Westchester (G3) was going to provide. However, be careful what you wish for as we saw Sierra Leone fail to fire off the bench in his 2025 debut at Fair Grounds in the New Orleans Classic. Maybe the Champ Is Back, but at 6/5, I’ll wait a race before I put a belt in him in 2025.