Alcibiades Stakes Picks

The Alcibiades (G1) kicks off a fantastic Opening Day card at Keeneland as it features some of the top two-year-old fillies going two turns for the first time. Your overwhelming favorite is going to be #3 Tommy Jo for trainer Todd Pletcher with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez back aboard. The daughter of Into Mischief out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare is a perfect 2-2 and has yet to be tested as she breezed in her debut and came back to win the Spinaway (G1) on Closing Weekend at Saratoga by over six lengths. None of the horses have run back from that Spinaway (G1) yet, but it is promising that her debut maiden race produced two next out winners in the form of Tennessee Belle and Caradise. What makes Tommy Jo so impressive is that she can sit off the pace and has no problem passing horses in the stretch. She has moved so easily in her first two career starts; there is no reason to suspect that she can’t handle two turns and stretching out to 8.5 furlongs. The fact Pletcher and Spendthrift Farms opted to run her here rather than in the Frizette where she could have run a one-turn mile speaks to the confidence her pedigree and physicals are best suited going longer. She is one of the favorites to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and is an early Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender. The sky is the limit for this filly, and she can put on a dominant performance on Friday with John Velazquest back in the irons. Her Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) and her TimeFormUS Figures tower over the field and with the lack of early speed in the race, Velazquez could opt to put her up front and let her roll.

Her closest competition in the Spinaway (G1) was #1 Percy’s Bar for trainer Ben Colebrook who started off her career a perfect 2-2, which included a victory in the Ellis Park Debutante. She shipped up to Saratoga for a crack at a Grade 1 and ran a valiant second but lacked the early speed to press Tommy Jo in the early going of the race. She did show a nice ability to pass horses coming from further back and one might assume running longer might be better for her despite a modest pedigree sired by Upstart and out of a Super Saver mare. While she might come from off the pace, she does not completely lack early speed as she managed to stay close to the pace and take over the lead early in the Ellis Park Debutante going six furlongs. Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles might be good for her as jockey Luan Machado will be able to save ground from the rail and work out a pocket trip behind the early speed of Tommy Jo and potentially a horse like #4 The Grumpy Rabbit. If that’s the case, expect Percy’s Bar to be a position to cut the corner at the top of the stretch and make a run at the leaders. Whether she is good enough is a question mark, but she has been working fantastically leading up to Friday as evidenced by the 58.1 second five-furlong bullet workout at Keeneland last week. That drill showed great speed and conditioning to handle the longer distance. She will be Tommy Jo’s biggest threat, but Machado must ensure she is within shouting distance of the favorite at the top of the stretch.

Honestly, outside of the top two, this race could go in a few different directions underneath, however, it would appear to flow through one of two Kenny McPeek runners. #2 Go to Girl has jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons and is coming off a narrow victory against maiden company at Ellis Park. However, the daughter of first-crop sire Knicks Go has gotten slower on BSF in each of her three career starts, which corresponds with stretching out in distance. While she won at a mile, she only earned a 58 BSF, which is a far cry from the 85 of Tommy Jo’s last effort or the career-high 71 Percy’s Bar got last time out. She has good speed and came out of a productive maiden race two back where the top three finishers all went on to win their next starts, but stretching out to this level of competition might be a bit more than she can chew. Therefore, I prefer #4 The Grumpy Rabbit of the two McPeek entries. The daughter of Not This Time comes from a big female family, which is a trademark of many McPeek runners. Her second dam is two-time Grade 1 winner Stop Traffic and her dam’s sire is Midnight Lute. She debuted on the turf but then switched to dirt last time out and won by six lengths going a mile at Ellis Park. While she only was assigned a 60 BSF, she showed great early speed and should sit a terrific trip off the pace of Tommy Jo. Whether she is good enough to take a big step forward is a question, but she should sit the right trip and has the pedigree to suggest that she has some talent to be precocious. Plus, jockey Flavien Prat is taking over the ride for Brian Hernandez Jr. as he is on Sunday for Thorpedo Anna.