Acorn Stakes (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

There is no clear frontrunner, nor an overwhelming amount of early speed signed on for this year’s Acorn (G1), which draws some comparisons to the likely field in this year’s Belmont Stakes (G1). However, this year’s field of three-year-old fillies does have several runners who show decent speed out of the gate to sit within a couple of lengths of the leaders. It would seem as if longshot #4 Maximum Offer (15-1) is the horse that will lead them into the first turn for this year’s renewal of the Acorn Stakes (G1). However, it is distinctly possible that #1 Prom Queen (7-2), #2 Counting Stars (9-2), and #3 Meaning (3-1) show some aggression out of the starting gate to control the early tempo. What makes it complicated is that all three of those horses do their best running at a target, so it will come down to the intent of the trainer and jockey. No matter who leads them into the first turn, it should be a bunched-up group with odds-on favorite #5 Always a Runner (4-5) trailing the field. She is unlikely to get the pace she ran behind in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but she closed behind much slower fractions going the same distance in the Gazelle (G2), so it is hard to imagine she won’t make her run. The pace would seem to favor frontrunners and perhaps the horse and jockey who are most aggressive out of the gate.

Analysis

I will not argue with a single person who selects Prom Queen, Counting Stars, or Meaning as their top choice in this year’s Acorn. They all make sense, and there is a case to be made for each. However, I just cannot get past morning line favorite #5 Always a Runner (4-5). Trainer Chad Brown’s daughter of Gun Runner is a perfect 3-3 in her career while coming off a victory in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). There are several things that made her win impressive, foremost being that she accomplished it in only her third career start. She got a late start to the track as she caught a severe case of pneumonia as a juvenile, which delayed her development, and she briefly had to be placed in a hyperbaric chamber to aid her recovery. She finally was able to debut in February at Tampa Bay Downs in a race where she dominated by over six lengths, but the Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) came back very slow as she was assigned a 59 for her victory. Despite the slow figure, Brown entered her in the Gazelle (G2), and she rewarded her trainer’s confidence by tracking down Pashmina, who had been loose on the lead. It is the Gazelle (G2), more so than the Kentucky Oaks (G1), that makes me believe she is the overwhelming favorite in this race. In the Gazelle (G2), she sat mid-pack behind a loose leader who was setting a slow pace. Despite that, and despite several other factors that could have worked against her, like switching off Lasix or facing winners for the first time, she clipped off horses around the turn and put away Pashmina in the stretch. Obviously, the country saw in primetime what she could do when sitting behind a hot pace as she blew by everyone around the turn and coming home in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). However, Friday’s pace scenario is more likely to mirror the Gazelle (G2) than her race at Churchill Downs. While she is an off-the-pace runner, she is hardly without speed as she sat about a length off Meaning and about two lengths off Counting Stars during most of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), so she will be right on their heels in a bunched-up group at Saratoga. She has been assigned a 94 BSF in each of her last two races, and the reality is that she could just be scratching the surface of her talent. While she could be sitting last in a short field, it is also possible that she shows a new dimension in the Acorn (G1) as Sovereignty did in last year’s Belmont Stakes (G1), where he switched up his running style to lay significantly closer to the pace. Jockey Jose Ortiz knows what he has under him, and she appears to be a filly that is on the brink of a very special summer at The Spa.

I do believe there is a case to be made for #2 Counting Stars (9-2) for trainer Mark Casse, as the daughter of Honor A.P. for West Point Thoroughbreds will provide excellent value on Friday afternoon. I was initially underwhelmed by her third-place effort in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but upon rewatching the race, she gave up some tactical advantages to both Meaning and Always a Runner, who were able to make their moves early after being angled out in the clear. Meanwhile, Counting Stars was bottled up inside and did not have a clean path to make a strong run until late in the stretch, where she advanced and had a strong gallop out. She has had two puzzlingly bad efforts in the Myrtlewood and Martha Washington, but her form seems to be moving in the right direction, and Casse has her firing off bullet workouts in the morning at Saratoga as her final prep before the Acorn (G1) was a 47 flat move going four furlongs on May 29. Much like Meaning and Prom Queen, she has more than enough early speed to put herself in a good position early, and it's possible new jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. decides to go to the lead. Remember, she sat closer to the pace in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) than anyone else in Friday’s field, and she hounded the pace before drawing away to win the Fantasy (G2) in her previous start. Her best effort is not far from what Always a Runner has done, and she gets a jockey upgrade to Ortiz Jr. for this race.

My top pick in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) was #3 Meaning (3-1), and I thought she ran a fantastic race as the daughter of Gun Runner made a decisive move coming for home, but was simply second best once Always a Runner ran onto the scene. I can’t help but think back to a year ago when I had picked a horse trained by Michael McCarthy and owned by Eclipse Thoroughbreds to win the Kentucky Derby (G1), only to see him finish second to a special horse. Of course, I’m referring to Journalism and his continued inability to best Sovereignty. In some ways, Meaning and Always a Runner feel like the potential female version of that same dynamic. Meaning, like Journalism, is the best the West Coast has to offer, but might not be able to turn the tables on her East Coast rival. She should be sitting closer to a slow pace and get first run at the leaders on Friday, and it’s also possible that jockey Juan Hernandez plays the break and tries to get her up on the lead. She has never run gate-to-wire, though she was near the front in her debut race at Los Alamitos. She tends to prefer running at a target, but in such a short field, taking her back to second or third place means she is allowing Always a Runner to be that much closer. As for her effort in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), despite sitting between horses on the backstretch, she had an ideal trip and was able to make her run turning for home while in the clear. It’s hard to make any excuses for her other than she simply was not as good as Brown’s filly. While it is tempting to pick her to turn the tables, I would rather stick with a horse that did not get the best run of things in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), like Counting Stars, to improve and potentially best her this time around. All that said, Meaning has gotten faster on her BSF in each career start, and while she is not as inexperienced as Always a Runner, she has only raced five times and could also still be improving.

I have a feeling #1 Prom Queen (7-2) is going to attract some attention because of her effort in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and how her form has subsequently been flattered. Regarding her fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), the daughter of Quality Road sat much further back than she is traditionally accustomed, as she was second-to-last at one point down the backstretch. When rewatching the start, she broke cleanly, and while the horse to her outside came in on her a little, it appeared jockey Javier Castellano decided to cede that position and start moving toward the rail, which resulted in her losing touch with the first flight of runners. While she kept on to run fifth, I believe that effort could have been slightly deceiving as she was passing several fillies who simply wanted nothing to do with the nine-furlong distance. She never made up that much ground on the eventual winners and now must face the top three finishers. It is important to remember that she came out of the Gulfstream Park circuit prior to running in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). That circuit is not traditionally the strongest, as nearly all the prep races are one-turn races until the final 100-point Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). It was promising to see Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) runner-up My Miss Mo come back to win the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) at Laurel Park the day before the Preakness (G1), but that race came back slow, which only further illustrates the relative weakness of that circuit. The combination of Brad Cox and Flavien Prat is going to attract money, but I’m not sure her value is going to equate to her percentage chance of winning, though she is a logical horse to include in trifectas if the top two betting choices take all the money.