Bet the Travers Stakes

2024 TRAVERS PREVIEW & TRENDS

On Saturday, August 24, Saratoga will host the Travers Stakes (G1) AKA The Midsummer Derby. The list of starters is a veritable who’s who of the three-year-old crop. To get you ready for the action on NYRA Bets we went back to 2000 to look for winning trends among previous winners and how they might apply to this year’s field.

Previous Form

• Since 2000, 68% of Travers winners won their previous race.
• From the probable 2024 field, Dornoch, Fierceness, Thorpedo Anna, and Unmatched Wisdom are all coming off victories last time out.
• Over the last 25 years, the Jim Dandy Stakes has been the overwhelming key race for Travers winners with 11 winners coming out of that prep race to win the Midsummer Derby.
• This year’s probable field features the Jim Dandy winner (Fierceness) in addition to runner-up (Sierra Leone) and the third-place finisher (Batten Down) from last month’s Jim Dandy.
• Thorpedo Anna is looking to become the first filly since Lady Rotha in 1915 to win the Travers Stakes over the boys.

Saratoga Success

• Previous Saratoga success has proven to be helpful for those running in the Travers. Since 2000, 52% of Travers winners had previously won at The Spa.
• Of the probable runners in the 2024 edition of the Dornoch, Fierceness (twice), Thorpedo Anna, and Unmatched Wisdom have all previously won over the main track at Saratoga.

Pedigree

• Being sired by a previous Travers winner has been a winning formula over the last 23 years as 2004 Travers winner Birdstone sired 2009 winner Summerbird in addition to 2006 winner Bernardini having sired the 2011 winner Stay Thirsty and the 2012 winner Alpha.
• From the probable Travers field not a single horse was sired by a previous Travers winner, but Thorpedo Anna’s second sire is Medaglia d’Oro won the 2002 Travers Stakes.
• Both Unbridled and A.P. Indy have had a significant impact on the Travers from a pedigree standpoint as they are both the sire or second sire to three winners since 2000.
• Unbridled: Unshaded (2000), Will Take Charge (2013), and Arrogate (2016)
• A.P. Indy: Bernardini (2006), Stay Thirsty (2011), and Alpha (2012)
• For this year’s group of probable runners, only Honor Marie has a connection to A.P. Indy as he is the second sire for trainer Whit Beckman’s entry.

Trainers

• Trainers Todd Pletcher (Fierceness) and Shug McGaughey (Corporate Power) have both trained previous Travers winners with Pletcher winning twice (2005, 2011) and McGaughey winning it four times (1989, 1990, 1998, 2019).
• The last four years have seen trainers win the Travers for the first time (Jena Antonucci, Steve Asmussen, Brad Cox, Barclay Tagg).

Race Dynamics

• Since 2000, only three horses (Bernardini, Arrogate, and West Coast) have won the Travers in gate-to-wire fashion.
• On the flip side, only one horse (V.E. Day) has won the Travers while sitting more than 5 ½ lengths back at the half mile mark.
• The average winning trip since 2000 has been to sit roughly 2 ½ lengths off the lead at the half mile mark before making your run turning for home.