Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Thursday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - THURSDAY, JUNE 5

#1 Cameo Performance (3/1) – The Brendan Walsh trainee is exiting one of the tougher turf races of the year in the Turf Classic (G1) where he faced Spirit of St Louis, Integration, Redistricting, Gold Phoenix, and Mercante who came back to win the Arlington (G3) in his next start. Thursday will feel like a bit of a class drop by comparison though this is still a very strong group of runners, but a group that is gettable for the son of Oscar Performance, who won the Poker (G3) in 2018. The biggest issue he could face is that he comes from off the pace, but if you look at his previous stakes victory you will see he can close behind modest-to-slow fractions. Additionally, Manny Franco will be able to save all the ground from the inside post. Perhaps most importantly, it appears this horse has taken a big step forward this year as he paired his career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in his next effort and now he is third back in the form cycle and should be sitting on a huge effort for a barn that knows how to win graded stakes turf races.

#4 Major Dude (7/2) – The four-time graded stakes winner for trainer Todd Pletcher has always been a popular horse at the track and the betting windows as he has gone off at 2/1 or less in five of his last six races. He is a cut below the elite runners in this division, but fits nicely in this spot, particularly since he has more versatility than most turf runners. He can lay close to the pace or come from further back with equal results, but he is probably at his best sitting a tracking or mid-pack trip. Top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. should easily be able to secure such a trip from his post position as there is minimal speed, and he could be sitting as close as third in the early going. His BSF have dropped off the last few races as he was running in the mid-to-high 90s last year and earlier this year, but he only ran an 88 and 89 the last two times out, though you can easily make an excuse in the race two back as he was badly hampered by a bad break that put him in the back of the field. He did not have as much of an excuse last time out, but he lost to two very talented horses, Brilliant Berti and Lagynos, who came back to run a close second and third in the Arlington (G3). He could easily win if he reverts to that prior form and speed figures.

#8 Donegal Momentum (5/1) – The Tom Morley trainee is a prime example of a horse where you just cross out the dirt efforts and you get a sense of an incredibly talented turf runner. His dirt form has some highs and lows, but his turf form has been consistently solid across five starts, which includes three wins, a second, and a third. He has won over the Saratoga turf course before and he won the Gio Ponti Stakes going a mile on the turf while running off Lasix, so he has already checked quite a few boxes. He has outstanding early speed and my only fear is that he goes a little too fast with fellow speedster Filo di Arianna, but the horse has rated before and jockey Javier Castellano has ridden him to quite a few turf victories, so he is familiar with the horse. He will likely need to take a step forward in terms of his Beyer Speed Figures as his career best 91 will not be good enough to win on Thursday, but so long as he can rate off the speed, expect this Grade 1-placed horse to turn in another consistent effort.

#3 Filo di Arianna (4/1) – Of the main contenders, I am most likely to fade the Mark Casse trainee. He is an outstanding horse who has remained at a high level as he continues to win at nine-years-old. However, if you look at his form, he has never won on the turf in North America outside of Woodbine. He is 0-2 at Saratoga and 0-7 in the United States having won his first three career starts in Brazil before being based at Woodbine. He does have incredible distance versatility, having won between six furlongs and a mile. He should be controlling speed going into the first turn, but I do wonder whether Donegal Momentum provides enough pressure to see him start fading late as some of the stronger closers make their run. His BSF are among the best and most consistent in the field, but I just have a hard time trusting him outside the friendly confines of Woodbine and until he beats me, I will play against him, particularly as a shorter price.