Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Thursday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - THURSDAY, JUNE 6

Two-year-old races can be a wild ride with horses making dramatic improvements and regressions between starts as well as first-time runners stepping up to surprise. I will go with the latter in my top pick with #4 Brereton Baytown (8/1) for trainer Paul McEntee. The son of Upstart is making his debut in a stake race but looks well meant for this spot based on pedigree and his morning works. It appears McEntee was getting him ready for debut during the Keeneland Spring Meet, but he took a break in training from mid-March to the beginning of May. He has come back with five impressive works including a 46 second four-furlong bullet gate work on May 24 that was first of 25. I love seeing a fast gate work from a young horse to ensure good early speed. His sire, Upstart, is producing 16% winners from his two-year-old first-timers and his dam, Kika, has produced one other foal who won in debut. Of the runners with experience, #8 Classic of Course (7/2) for trainer Patrick Biancone offers some value and intrigue. The modest homebred impressed in debut drawing off by 6+ lengths at Gulfstream Park and he draws well in this race to the outside post. He has outstanding early speed and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount, which is always dangerous. Ortiz Jr. should be able to use the outside post position to effectively gauge the pace and either go to the front or place him just off the lead. Biancone does not come to New York often, but it feels like this one has a nice chance. Trainer Wesley Ward is known for his precocious two-year-olds and #7 Touchy (2/1) is your morning line favorite, but I am only lukewarm on the horse. His dam, Touch the Moon, is 0-4 with first-time starters though three of them finished second. As for Ward, he is not as overwhelming in these spots as he might be debuting a runner at Keeneland. Over the last five years he is only 3-16 in 2YO dirt stakes races in New York and only 1-10 when controlling for Saratoga. The horse has been working well and I’d hardly be shocked if he won, but I think this might be a Ward horse you could play against. Finally, there is projected to be rain in the forecast on Thursday and I want to use #1 Studlydoright (6/1) for Maryland trainer John Robb as the horse broke his maiden over a sloppy track at Laurel Park last month. It is not simply that he took to the wet track, but the manner with which he did it as he came from off the pace with an inside post position. He will be on the inside again and with all the speed to his outside, he should face a very similar trip while providing some value.

There are two fillies with big Beyer Speed Figures on the dirt in the Jersey Girl Stakes, but I have more confidence in one than the other. I will ride with #5 Almostgone Rocket (6/5) for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat. The daughter of Into Mischief is a perfect 2-2 and managed to move forward after an impressive maiden-breaking debut where she trounced the field by 11+ lengths. She stretched out slightly in her next start and handled a wet track while easily dispatching allowance optional claiming competition. She has an effective running style as she does not need the lead as she is likely to press the early pace while sitting second or third. She is switching off Lasix, but Cox is one of the best at getting his horses ready for a big race and I already know she can handle a wet surface. #2 Roman Goddess (5/1) for trainer Todd Pletcher has been a steady performer in her first three starts collecting one win while finishing second twice. Her lone victory came at Keeneland going seven furlongs where she wired the field, but she has passed horses in other races. Irad Ortiz Jr. hops on the mount and will be her fourth jockey in as many starts, which is a bit of a red flag, but picking up Ortiz Jr. is always a positive. The daughter of Munnings has recorded between a 76-79 Beyer Speed Figure in all three starts, which is unlikely to be enough to get the win, but she feels like a very reliable horse to use underneath in exotic wagers. Look for her to strike to the front as Ortiz Jr. likes to be aggressive in these spots. The horse with big speed figures for whom I am skeptical is #8 Gray Lightning (7/2) who recorded consecutive 94 Beyer Speed Figures for her last two races down at Parx while winning by a combined 27 lengths. Part of the reason for skepticism is the company she has kept. Yes, her figures and margin of victory are impressive until you look at the fact, she largely defeated claiming-level Pennsylvania-bred horses the last time out. Listen, speed is speed, so her ability to get out front early should not be questioned, but she also has seen a dramatic improvement from 2023 to 2024. Some of that could be natural maturation, but it also coincides with her switching onto Lasix, which she won’t get on Thursday. Finally, I’m intrigued by #4 Manama Gold (6/1) for trainer Todd Pletcher. I debated using this horse as my second choice, but I am not sure what to expect. The Louisiana-bred is making her first start in North America after starting her career in Meydan where she crushed the competition and won the UAE Oaks (G3). She has been with Pletcher since late April, but she seems more effective going long, so I am not sure she has the quickness to shorten up to six furlongs. I think she has a bright future in the United States, but willing to take watch this time.

Maybe I’m bias because I spent five years playing the French Horn, but it was hard for me to end up on anyone other than #3 French Horn (7/2) for trainer Mark Casse. The daughter of Complexity won nicely in debut on the all-weather surface at Woodbine under the ride of apprentice jockey Sofia Vives. On Thursday, jockey Flavien Prat will take over the mount and the horse will be switching surfaces, but if her last workout is any indication, it won’t be a problem. She blazed five furlongs in 58.3 seconds on the dirt at Woodbine’s training track on May 25, which was her first workout since debut. Her pedigree is impressive as well since her dam, Emma’s Encore, was a Grade 1-winning dirt sprinter. Casse has always been a reliable trainer in these spots winning 16% of his 309 two-year-old stakes starts over the last five years. Right behind her, I have #9 Long Neck Paula (2/1) for trainer Wesley Ward. Unlike most of the runners in this field, she came with a serious price tag having been a $500,000 purchase at the March OBS sales. The daughter of Uncle Mo should be able to handle just about any surface or distance and gets jockey John Velazquez on the mount. Few riders in the world are better at getting a young horse to relax on the lead than Velazquez. The outside post position should be an asset and she broke her maiden impressively at Churchill Downs going gate-to-wire. I am expecting a strong effort on Thursday. If you’re looking for a bigger price, then #5 Biscuitwiththeboss (12/1) for trainer Brittany Russell is one to consider. Russell has graduated from an “up-and-coming” trainer to one of the more reliable trainers on the East Coast. Russell trains the full sibling (Bosserati) who has become a turf sprint stakes winner. This one might ultimately end up on the grass as well, but she showed great maturity winning close in debut over two horses who both broke their maidens next time out. Her debut race was also over a muddy track, so you know she can handle whatever the conditions dictate on Thursday. Finally, consider #4 West Memorial (4/1) for new trainer Peter Gulyas. The former John Hancock trainee nearly won in debut at Keeneland before coming back to easily win the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs last month. Her ability to come from off the pace is particularly noteworthy as many young horses can only win up front. Her pedigree is hardly overwhelming, but her dam (Vita Bella) did produce a two-time winner with her other foal. West Memorial has been up at Saratoga the last few weeks and gotten in some nice works over the Oklahoma training track.

With rain in the forecast and the potential for softer ground, it is hard to avoid #12 Siskany (even) despite the dreadful post position. Going two miles on the inner turf will require jockey William Buick to save as much ground as possible from the outside post position. Luckily, we are talking about William Buick who is one of the best jockeys in the world. The horse has tactical speed and should use it early to clear as many fellow runners as possible before settling in for the marathon. The son of Dubawi won this race last year for trainer Charlie Appleby and is a 10-time winner in 24 career starts. He won back-to-back races at 1 ¾ miles in Meydan before finishing fourth to a loaded field of 15 in the Dubai Gold Cup (G1) back in March. He has gotten a pair of works in over the Saratoga turf course and can handle softer ground. Last year #11 The Grey Wizard (8/1) finished second in this race to Siskany, and I think it could be déjà vu all over again. The Graham Motion trainee showed marked improvement while finishing a close third in the Louisville (G3) last time out, which was the horse’s second start back after an 8+ month layoff. I expect to see another modest improvement in his third start back in the form cycle under jockey John Velazquez. He might end up with the opposite trip of Siskany as he lacks any early speed and is probably best served to drop out to the back of the field out of the gate to work over to the rail and save ground. He will make a big run late and seems to be at his best the longer they go. A horse who should get a perfect trip is #1 Limited Liability (10/1) for trainer Shug McGaughey as the son of Kitten’s Joy will be able to save all the ground on the rail. While he has only won three times in 15 career starts, he has turned in his highest Beyer Speed Figures when running between 11 and 12 furlongs. I suspect he will appreciate the added distance and is also making his third start back in the form cycle after a winter layoff. He has enough tactical speed to ensure a mid-pack trip with this field, but my biggest concern is jockey Eric Cancel, who has a bad tendency to get off the rail in a race where you want to be as close to scraping paint as possible. Finally, we can’t talk about a turf marathon race without a Mike Maker horse and #5 Starting Over (9/2) certainly looks formidable coming off a victory in the Mac Diarmida (G2) back in March at Gulfstream Park. He also has sufficient tactical speed for this group to ensure a mid-pack trip and Maker has worked his magic taking a horse that has largely raced at a mile and turning him into a stakes-winning marathoner. However, my hesitation is that he has not handled softer ground well in the past. If the turf course holds up and is rated “good,” then he has a chance, but if it is “soft” or “yielding,” then he is probably a toss.