Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Saturday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - SATURDAY, JUNE 7 PICKS

Overview: Potentially the most star-studded race of the weekend might be short on runners, but it is long on talent. The Met Mile (G1) features the showdown between 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Fierceness and 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner White Abarrio. The two of them have combined for seven Grade 1 wins, 11 graded stakes victories, and winnings surpassing $11 million. Neither horse winning would be a surprise, but Fierceness is 0-1 at a mile and White Abarrio is only 1-4 at the distance. The short field also makes this a jockeys’ race as tactics regarding early speed and positioning are critical. NYRA analyst and former jockey Richie Migliore always reminds me that short fields are when favorites tend to get into the most trouble. Meanwhile, Just a Touch has been an absolute monster this year since coming back from an abbreviated three-year-old season and Raging Torrent has won the Malibu (G1) and Godolphin Mile (G2) his last two times out. This is a fun field from a betting standpoint because people likely have strong convictions behind their picks which could present opportunities for outstanding value if you go against the grain in horizontal wagers.

#4 Just a Touch (4/1) – Yes, I am going against the grain not to simply be contrarian, but because I believe this is a horse that might announce himself to the national audience after a three-year-old campaign that was cut short due to some aggressive campaigning. Just a Touch broke his maiden in debut at Fair Grounds over a wet track and was immediately put on the Kentucky Derby (G1) Trail as he stepped up to run in the Gotham (G3) over another wet track at Aqueduct. He ran a solid second that day and then went to the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland where he pressed a blistering pace that largely fell apart and was the only one who could stay on when Sierra Leone circled the field. He was a bit of a “wise guy” horse going into the Kentucky Derby (G1), but those dreams (and bets) were dashed as soon as the gate popped open and he was slammed between two horses and dropped to the back of the field. He did manage to come back a few months later in the Oklahoma Derby where he ran a close second to Henro, but was put to the bench by trainer Brad Cox after that effort until this March when he returned to Fair Grounds and romped by 10+ lengths in a first-level allowance race and he followed that up with an equally dominating effort in a second-level allowance race at Keeneland where he motored away by seven easy lengths. In the aftermath of the victory at Keeneland, there was already discussion of him being pointed to this race, which is a great sign and speaks to the confidence the connections have in this powerful son of Justify. From a race standpoint, his last two Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), which came with the assistance of Lasix, compare favorably most of the efforts Fierceness and White Abarrio have run. Additionally, Just a Touch has shown the ability to be tactical and come from off the pace. Expect Fierceness to gun it from the inside, but he is a horse, as I will discuss below, prefers to be outside of horses and I am not sure he gets alone on the lead without a horse flanking him. Just a Touch could let White Abarrio do that dirty work or could do it himself. The mile distance will hit him right between the eyes and represents the best value relative to my belief in his chances of winning.

#1 Fierceness (even) – The Champ was indeed back last time out when he cruised to a new track record at Churchill Downs when taking the Alysheba (G2). It was an impressive effort considering it was his first time on the track since his admirable runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) where he sat close to nuclear fractions only to his late-running rival Sierra Leone take advantage of the pace meltdown. There is little doubt that when Fierceness gets his own way, he is one of the most talented horses we have seen in years and he has shown more patience being able to sit off of the speed, but if there is one potential Achilles Heel, it is that he appears to still want to be in the clear on the outside of other horses. Jockey John Velazquez has done an amazing job at making sure the son of City of Light gets his preferred trip as he is willing to give up ground to go wide while keeping the horse away from kickback and free of too much company around him. On Saturday he will break from the inside post coming out of the Wilson Chute, which could be a little tricky as White Abarrio and Just a Touch both have outstanding early speed and could keep him pinned down on the inside. If that is the case, Fierceness could get a bit uncomfortable and look like he did when he finished third in the Holy Bull (G3) after being stuck between horses. He has matured a lot since then, so it is possible this quirk is no longer a problem, but until I see him overcome this, I will cautiously play against him as my top pick.

#2 White Abarrio (8/5) – One of the more popular horses in training, White Abarrio has put together a truly incredibly career and recent comeback. He started as a $40,000 purchase sired by Race Day who has currently amassed nearly $7 million in career earnings. During that journey, he was a precocious youngster who won four of his first five races including the Florida Derby (G1). Then he went through a trainer change to Rick Dutrow Jr. where he seemed to be revitalized and won the Whitney (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Then, late last year he went back to his original trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., and comes into the race fresh off a victory in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Ghostzapper (G3). He is an exceptionally talented horse who has won at 6 ½ furlongs and a 1 ¼. Running at a mile is not always his best distance as he is only 1-4 winning in those races with two of those losses coming in previous renewals of the Met Mile (G1) including last year’s race out at Saratoga out of the Wilson Chute. He has outstanding early speed and six-year-old appears to still be in top form and he has a versatile running style as he can come from off the pace as well as win on the front end. The fact he is breaking next to Fierceness likely gives jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. a little extra motivation to keep up with the favorite during the early stages of the race because if they let Fierceness get away up front the race will be over in the first 100 yards. Therefore, expect Ortiz Jr. to be aggressive in the early going and have White Abarrio on the lead or pressing the pace. He has been training beautifully for Joseph Jr. who said the workouts he has seen from him lately remind him of the condition he was in leading up to the Pegasus World Cup (G1). It is hard to root against White Abarrio as I wish there were more great horses still running at six-years-old, but I am not sure he loves the mile distance, and this feels like a tougher group for him, but I would hardly be surprised to see him win.

#5 Raging Torrent (5/1) – Somehow the winner of the Malibu (G1) and Godolphin Mile (G2) has managed to get overlook with the star power of White Abarrio and Fierceness, however this Doug O’Neill trainee has done very little wrong over the last 13 months winning five of six starts. The son of Maximus Mischief has turned into an outstanding sprinter who was able to get the mile distance last time out, but I do question whether he can do it again against a tougher group than what he faced in Dubai. While he can come from off the pace, he generally does his best running up front or stalking from the second position, so expect him to be a part of the early pace scenario with jockey Frankie Dettori aboard. The combination of running at his maximum distance and this being his first start back in North American makes me put him a half notch below the top three. He is incredibly talented and should win several more Grade 1 races, but I feel like his best distance will be seven furlongs. It would hardly shock me to see him get a piece, but I would be surprised if he was able to defeat all my top three selections, so he is a horse I am excluding from my horizontal wagers.

Overview: The Belmont Stakes (G1) features a showdown between the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby (G1): Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza. While Sovereignty and Baeza opted to skip the middle leg of the Triple Crown, Journalism made the trek to Pimlico and came away with one of the most thrilling victories in recent memory as he squeezed through a hole that didn’t exist and managed to track down the leader when it appeared there was no way he would be able to do so. Now, the three face off again and the big question is whether running three races in five weeks will catch up with Journalism and whether he can turn the tables on Sovereignty who was able to put him away in Kentucky. The pace is likely to play into the hands of Journalism as there is limited speed signed on with Rodriguez and Crudo being the only leading horses. It is hard to imagine a speed duel as Crudo has shown the ability to pass horses and draws to the outside of Rodriguez, which means he can stalk the leader into the first turn. With a moderate pace, expect Journalism to sit no worse than a close fourth as he and Baeza should be the next pair during the early stages of the race. Journalism’s trainer, Michael McCarthy, has been clear that he wants the horse close to the lead and would have preferred him be closer to the lead in both previous Triple Crown races. Meanwhile, Sovereignty will be sitting further back and might have to overcome a slower pace. He is a classy horse who has done everything right for trainer Bill Mott and will be fresh having skipped the Preakness Stakes (G1) but we will need to see how many lengths he spots the leaders. The fractions will be much slower than what he ran behind in the Kentucky Derby (G1), so the frontrunners might not come back to him the way they did before. A similar dynamic is at play with Hill Road who is a closer for trainer Chad Brown and is coming off an impressive victory in the Peter Pan (G3) but is now facing a significantly tougher group that is not distant limited the way some of his foes might have been in the past. Finally, Baeza has the pedigree to win any Triple Crown race being the half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch. He has only won one race but has acquitted himself so well in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) that is has become the “wise guy” pick leading up to the race.

#7 Journalism (8/5) – I remember being excited about this son of Curlin trained by Michael McCarthy leading up to his stakes debut in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) way back in December of last year as he was coming off an impressive maiden victory. It can sometimes be hard for a non-Bob Baffert horse to stand out in California, but Journalism never needed any introduction as his physical presence was obvious from the second he stepped into the sales ring as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale in August of 2023. He has backed up his appearance on the track as after losing in debut he tore through the best California could offer winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) before heading to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby (G1). On the first Saturday in May, he sat a mid-pack trip but was significantly further back than trainer Michael McCarthy had wanted. McCarthy had hoped the horse would be sitting three or four lengths from the lead, but he was nearly 10 lengths back during the early stages of the race. The fact he sat so far back means he was closer to Sovereignty than he might have ideally wanted and when it came time to make their final moves, jockey Junior Alvarado had gotten Sovereignty within two or three lengths of Journalism, which gave him a significant tactical advantage. On Saturday Journalism will have fewer horses, a slower early pace, and should be sitting within a length or two of the lead. That will give him more of a cushion when it comes time to make their moves while Sovereignty will try to make up ground behind a slower pace. After running the first two legs of the Triple Crown, it is understandable that people might question whether Journalism is the more tired horse given that Sovereignty and Baeza skipped the Preakness Stakes (G1). However, after watching him in the morning, I can report that not only does Journalism look to be in phenomenal shape, but he looks bigger and stronger than he did prior to the Kentucky Derby (G1). Trainer Michael McCarthy always makes the point that he raced Journalism three times in seven weeks as a two-year-old and they had a plan in place to tackle all three legs of the Triple Crown. I will be interested to see whether he goes off as the favorite, but he is a special horse, and I believe he will give those writing the headlines plenty to write about after the race.

#2 Sovereignty (2/1) – The winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1) brought ownership group Godolphin their first victory in the race, which was something they had been striving to achieve for years. The decision to skip the Preakness Stakes (G1) was mildly surprising, but trainer Bill Mott always takes the longer view with his horses and he wanted this son of Into Mischief to be fully prepared for the Belmont Stakes (G1) and for a run later this summer in the Travers (G1) and eventually the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). On the track, Sovereignty has done nothing but impress. While he lost his debut race at Saratoga last year, it was a salty field which included G1-placed Tip Top Thomas and two-time winner Rookie Card while Keewaydin and C K Wonder both broke their maidens next time out. More importantly, Sovereignty galloped out past all of them and only got better with added distance. His coming out party was in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs where he dispatched the likes of future Grade 1 winner Sandman and future Grade 2 winner Tiztastic. His three-year-old campaign has been brief, but he started off with perhaps one of his impressive efforts winning the Fountain of Youth (G2) coming off the bench and running below moderate factions on a speed-favoring track. Additionally, due to the distance of the race, he had a very short stretch to track down the leader, River Thames, which he managed to do right at the wire. His Kentucky Derby (G1) victory was as impressive as any given that he had never run in wet track conditions and he overcame a challenging start sitting toward the back of the field before he started to naturally move past horses and get into prime position around the turn. The key with this horse on Saturday is that jockey Junior Alvarado must do the calculus of how close do you try to keep Sovereignty to the pace in a shorter field and how much do you simply let the horse run his race. According to Alvarado, the horse does not like getting ridden hard, so look for him to let Sovereignty get naturally settled and into his stride before he begins to ask anything from the horse. The reason this is so critical is because of the pace dynamics. While he does not need a hot pace to win, it certainly does not hurt, and he will be sitting toward the back of the field while his main competition should be laying within a length or two of the lead. Choosing between the top two horses is like splitting hairs. I have always slightly preferred Journalism over Sovereignty, so I will continue to play it that way. I would be very surprised if neither horse won this race.

#5 Crudo (15/1) – The crazy idea I have in this race is that Crudo is an actual threat in your vertical wagers like exactas and trifectas. The winner of the Sir Barton Stakes did so in gate-to-wire fashion and while he is light on his Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), I believe there is a recent example that proves he can move forward. In the Preakness Stakes (G1), the horse Gosger was coming out of a victory in the Lexington (G3) but was considered “too slow” according to BSF while getting ideal trips. Well, in the Preakness (G1) he got another ideal trip closely stalking the pace and made a significant move forward on BSF. If not for a freakish effort from Journalism, we would be talking about how Gosger upset the field in the Preakness Stakes (G1). I think Crudo fits a similar trajectory in terms of a lightly raced horse who might be light on speed figures but should sit an idea trip just off the flank of Rodriguez. Crudo draws outside of Rodriguez and has jockey John Velazquez aboard. Velazquez does many things well, but what he does best is getting younger horses to relax and give them their preferred trip. Crudo showed in debut that he can pass horses so while his last two victories, which he won by a combined 14 ¾ lengths, were gate-to-wire jobs, he can sit off the pace and pass another horse. Therefore, look for Velazquez to keep Crudo in the clear in the second position while letting him get into the flow of the race. Additionally, I love this horse’s pedigree as he is the full sibling to the Japanese mare Awesome Result who is a stunning 8-9 winning including five stakes victories, many of which came at the 1 ¼ mile distance. Trainer Todd Pletcher is excellent at training horses to get a new distance, and I think this horse could sit a perfect trip off Rodriguez and has a pedigree to support the distance. Remember last year we saw Dornoch basically go gate-to-wire to win the Belmont Stakes (G1), so a forward trip can be a winning one while we run at this shortened distance while we are holding the event at Saratoga.

#3 Rodriguez (6/1) – Speaking of the potential of a gate-to-wire trip, Rodriguez is a scary entry for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. The Wood Memorial (G2) winner was sent to Churchill Downs to prepare for the Kentucky Derby (G1) but developed a bit of a foot issue that led to Baffert removing him from consideration for the race. He was immediately pointed toward the Preakness Stakes (G1), a race Baffert had won eight times, but the foot problems lingered and he was again removed from consideration prior to the post position draw Baffert shipped him back to California and there was some speculation he would miss the final leg of the Triple Crown as well, but he resurfaced with a massive seven furlong workout followed up by a sharp five furlong work and all systems were go again. Physically, he looks tremendous as he appears to have put on weight and muscle since I last saw him at Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial (G2). The son of Authentic is built like a two-turn horse and Baffert has always expressed optimism about his ability to get the Classic distance given the Authentic won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The strategy for Rodriguez is simple. Jockey Mike Smith will get him out of the gate and go straight to the lead and see how long he can last. The two times the horse has gotten to the lead, he won as he earned a 100 and 101 BSF, which is comparable to the top contenders in this field. Whether he can hold off this quality of challenger is a legitimate question as is his conditioning since he missed a pair of workouts. He could tire late, which is why I have him in my fourth position as I believe the strain of holding off the likes of Journalism and Sovereignty will be too much for him, but he is a horse I would absolutely include in my vertical wagers.