Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Saturday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - SATURDAY, JUNE 8 PICKS

One of the heavier favorites for the entire weekend is #5 Idiomatic (3/5) for trainer Brad Cox. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner has come back in 2024 looking as strong as ever as she romped in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs last month in her first race of the year. She has shown the ability to handle different surface conditions and has very good tactical speed as she will be sitting a tracking trip behind Randomized. During the 2023 Saratoga meet, 62.5% of two-turn dirt winners tracked within three lengths of the pace at the half-mile mark. She has beaten her toughest foes before and should appreciate stretching back out to nine furlongs. #3 Pretty Mischievous (6/1) was last year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner who followed that up with a win in the Acorn (G1). She went to the bench after finishing second by less than a length in the Cotillion (G1) and just came back after a prolonged absence in the La Troienne (G1) where she finished third over a sloppy track. She has an off-the-pace running style, but does have some tactical speed, though in a small field she is likely to be sitting toward the rear. I am always a little concerned about her pedigree as horses sired by Into Mischief can sometimes hit a ceiling at around nine furlongs, but the biggest win in her career was at Saturday’s distance. She is a cut below Idiomatic in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, so will need to improve, but should do so in her second start back in her four-year-old campaign. The horse likely to control early speed is #1 Randomized (6/1) for trainer Chad Brown as she has the best early speed and will save ground from the inside rail. She looked dominant at Saratoga last summer taking the Alabama (G1) by over four lengths before coming up short against Idiomatic at last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). She came back with her first start in 2024 by finishing second in the Ruffian (G2) at a mile. While she has won at Saturday’s distance, I do wonder if she will be able to hold off Idiomatic in the last half furlong. She has been training well for Brown and depending on how the track plays on Saturday might be able to get away up front, but I wonder if she is still working herself back into top condition. Finally, #6 Raging Sea (9/2) is another Brown runner coming off a win in the Doubledogdare (G3) last time out, which was a nice way to kick off her 2024 campaign. Brown has spoken at length about how the horse has continued to improve and she might be able to graduate from a Grade 3-level runner to something more. It was good to see third-place finisher in the Doubledogdare (G3), Scylla, come back to win the Shawnee (G3) in her next start, so it was a solid field.

Charlie Appleby’s #12 Mischief Magic (8/1) is making his third straight start in North America after running most of his career in Europe. The 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) winner has come up just short in his two U.S. starts in 2024 as he ran third in the Shakertown (G2) and then second in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Churchill Downs. Regular rider, William Buick, is flying over from England for the weekend to race at Saratoga, which gives me added confidence in addition to drawing an outside post position. The horse is a deep closer, but last year at Saratoga over 40% of turf sprint winners came from more than three lengths off the pace at the three-furlong mark. I love the combination of class and price for a horse that has shown the ability to run against the best of this group before. #8 Cogburn (2/1) won the Turf Sprint (G2) last time out in his first start of 2024. He has become a different runner since switching to the turf having rattled off four wins in five grass races. I supported him last time out when he was 8/1, but now he’s a short price and facing other pace pressure up front. It would hardly shock me if he won, but I always have a hard time supporting a short price in a turf sprint. Meanwhile, #2 Arzak (9/2) won the Shakertown (G2) back in April at Keeneland, which was his first start of the year. He is a consistent performer having won three of his last four races dating back to last August at Saratoga. He does lose jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in picks up Jaime Torres. While the horse possesses good early speed, he will be tracking off the pace and should appreciate the pace setup while saving ground inside before tipping out in the stretch. He is a serious contender and a horse I would include in my horizontal tickets. Finally, #6 Star of Mystery (6/1) is another Charlie Appleby runner coming over from Meydan and making his North American debut with jockey Flavien Prat on the mount. The horse is 8-9 finishing in the exacta with four career wins, which includes the Blue Point Sprint (G2) back in January. Last time out he finished second to California Spangle who is one of the great Hong Kong horses running at Sha Tin. This one is live after registering a nice four-furlong work over the turf at Saratoga ahead of Saturday’s race.

The top two choices are both coming off efforts in Meydan and will be making their first start back in the United States. Ultimately, despite coming back from a layoff, I landed on morning line favorite #6 White Abarrio (6/5) for a few reasons. First, the outside post in the smaller field is particularly advantageous coming out of the Wilton Chute at Saratoga where the inside post positions need to veer in slightly before they hit the main track. The Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner from last year has very good tactical speed and should be close to the pace under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. has been working this horse out steadily the last couple of months, which included some very strong works leading up to Saturday. He should fire fresh and has shown the ability to be elite. #2 National Treasure (8/5) for trainer Bob Baffert has always been a personal favorite of mine, but cutting back to the mile distance is a little interesting as I always believed he was better going longer, and he will knock heads with Hoist the Gold again up front as they did in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) back in January at Gulfstream Park. Baffert has been training this son of Quality Road very smartly and clearly feels confident shipping in from California. He is a two-time Grade 1 winner who does not traditionally have an easy time passing horses so his only option is to wire the field and I am not entirely confident he will be able to do so. Chad Brown’s #4 Blazing Sevens (8/1) is the value play in this field after winning in his 2024 debut after going to the bench for nearly nine months. I believe a one-turn (ish) format is the best for him as he likes to come from off the pace and will get the necessary pace in front of him cutting back from slower developing two-turn races. He nearly beat National Treasure in last year’s Preakness (G1), so he clearly has the talent to compete against the favorites and should move forward in his second start back in 2024. Finally, I am not as bullish on #3 Post Time (7/2) as others. He lost to Messier in the Westchester (G3) last time out and beat horses like Castle Chaos and Super Chow back in a very weak renewal of the Carter Handicap (G2). Additionally, jockey Sheldon Russell rides the horse like he believes he can’t lose. He is no longer running against inferior competition at Laurel Park and will need to show greater urgency on Saturday riding against two of the top older horses still in training. It is hard to say the best horse he has beaten to this point in his career (maybe Charge It) and while he should be closer to the pace due to the smaller field, but I still have a hard time seeing him win.

Love a Joseph O’Brien runner here as #6 Al Riffa (6/1) provides outstanding value as a horse coming back in his second start in 2024 after finishing a very close fourth by a half length last time out in the Prix Ganay (G1) at Longchamp in France. What makes him stand out is his runner-up finish two back Guillaume d’Ornano (G2) back in August 2023 to Ace Impact who at the time was considered one of the best horses in the world. Ace Impact retired undefeated and the horse that finished closest to him was Al Riffa. The horse can handle all sorts of going depending on the condition of the turf course and has some good tactical speed with jockey John Velazquez on the mount. He will be able to handle the distance and can work out a useful trip. Meanwhile, #9 Measured Time (7/2) is coming over from Meydan for trainer Charlie Appleby and attracts his top jockey William Buick on the mount. The son of Frankel will need to work out a trip from the far outside post but is already a two-time Group-stage winner overseas before finishing fourth in the Dubai Turf (G1) in his last start. He has good tactical speed and should be able to cross over several horses to save ground and travel near the front half of the field. Distance should not be an issue and he has managed to get a work in over the turf course at Saratoga ahead of his race on Saturday, which might point toward Appleby’s plans to keep him here for the summer. Chad Brown’s #5 Program Trading (5/2) is coming off a great win in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs last time out, which was his fifth win in six starts. He has done virtually nothing wrong with his lone loss coming at Colonial Downs when he lost to Integration. He really stepped up in his four-year-old debut earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, which is a substantial jump from his previous efforts that always were in the mid-90s. The horse has good tactical speed to sit a mid-pack trip under jockey Flavien Prat, but this will be a tougher field than he faced at Churchill Downs. I have a lot of respect for the horse, but I wonder if he is still worthy of win bet at such a short price despite his nearly impeccable record. Finally, #8 Far Bridge (10/1) is an interesting horse to use at a price as he was a very highly regarded three-year-old who had to deal with being shifted between barns and is finally back with his original trainer Christophe Clement. He finished fifth in that race against Program Trading at Churchill Downs last time out, but I think he could have used another race as he was second back from a nine-month layoff. On Saturday he will be third back in the form cycle and has shown the ability to make up ground late. He does seem to prefer making an inside move, so it will be up to jockey Jose Ortiz to work his way over to the rail. Should he work out the right trip, look for him to come flying late and is an intriguing price.