Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Friday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - FRIDAY, JUNE 7 PICKS

There are very few sure things during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but #6 Roses for Debra (6/5) is one of the more logical favorites you will find across the card. She came back from a four-month layoff last time out to win the Giant’s Causeway (G3) at Keeneland over a “good” turf course, which will likely be like the one she runs over on Friday. The Pennsylvania-bred trained by Christophe Clement has few holes in her resume as she is a perfect 2-2 at Saratoga, which includes taking last year’s Caress (G3). Cross a line through the Turf Monster (G3) effort at Parx as that was run in a bog that should not have stayed on the turf and I am willing to forgive her Breeders’ Cup effort. She has good tactical speed and can stay close enough to the early pace that she does not need a meltdown to close. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has ridden her beautifully and I expect an even better effort on Friday than we saw in her 2024 debut. #10 Love Reigns (3/1) for trainer Wesley Ward is going to do something on Friday she has not done since her second career race, which is run back-to-back efforts without a layoff. The talented filly has had a hard time staying on the track considering she debuted as a precocious two-year-old at Keeneland in 2022. When healthy she has been quite good having finished fourth in the 21-horse Queen Mary (G2) at Royal Ascot and winning the 2022 Bolton Landing at Saratoga. She finished second to Roses for Debra last time out in the Giant’s Causeway (G3) and while one might assume she could move forward from that effort; it is a bit of an unknown. She has drawn well to the outside and jockey Joel Rosario is as good as it comes in turf sprints, especially when bringing a horse from off the pace. She is more of a closer and will come running late. At a little bit of a price, #5 Future Is Now (8/1) for trainer Michael Trombetta is a little interesting coming off a victory in The Very One on the Preakness Stakes undercard. The fact the daughter of Great Notion showed the ability to come from off the pace while handling a softer turf course gives me confidence she might be able to put together another strong performance on Friday. I believe she is better at five furlongs but being able to track behind some of the early speed should ensure a better trip for jockey Paco Lopez. She might get overtaken late but provides some value in verticals. Finally, #8 Gal in a Rush (10/1) is the other Christophe Clement entry and impressed me last time out when she ran second in the License Fee Stakes last month at Aqueduct. She was a close runner-up that day, which was her first race in nine months. She earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure (90) while switching off Lasix, which speaks well for her chances on Friday. She retains jockey Flavien Prat and should sit a mid-pack trip in a race where there is a lot of speed. During the 2023 Saratoga Meet, only 16% of turf sprint winners went gate-to-wire while 37% of winners came from more than three lengths off the pace.

Trainer Chad Brown has five of the seven entries in this year’s Just a Game (G1). While some bemoan the fact one trainer has such a monopoly on the division, it is hard to deny the talent in his stable and that this is probably the deepest collection of older female turf milers in the country. We often write about “The Other Chad” where Brown’s second or third choice in a race outperforms his favorite and, in this race, you have plenty of “other Chad’s” from which to choose. I ultimately landed on #4 Coppice (3/1), which I guess is the “co-Other Chad” as the daughter of legendary sire Kingman should move forward in her second North American start. Her runner-up effort to fellow entrant Chili Flag last time out in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs was her first race in seven months since leaving the world-respected John and Thady Gosden barn overseas. She has run against some of the best in the world, having taken on the likes of Inspiral and has a devastating turn of foot once she gets going. She has better tactical speed than you might imagine for a closer and jockey Frankie Dettori has some flexibility with her. I love that Dettori used to ride her for Gosden before taking over riding duties for Brown here in the United States. #6 Chili Flag (4/1) has been an under-the-radar runner for Brown as she’s won three of her last four and gotten progressively faster in each of her last five races. She keeps jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. on the mount, which is notable as he’s been aboard for all her recent wins. She is another closer, but the Saratoga turf course is generally kind to those types as 43% of turf route winners during the 2023 meet came from more than three back at the half-mile mark. She has run well over softer ground and her upward trajectory in 2024 might be the sign of the five-year-old finally reaching her prime, which is not uncommon for turf mares. Morning line favorite #7 Whitebeam (5/2) finished second by a neck in the Beaugay (G3) last time out, which was her first race in 2024. She has very good early speed and prefers to sit a stalking trip while running second or third, which might put her behind Evvie Jets or Beaute Cachee. That said, it would not shock me if jockey Flavien Prat just went to the front as passing can be a challenge over a soft turf course and he could try to win the race into the first turn and take them gate-to-wire. She has that type of talent and is returning to the track where she scored her biggest career victory in the Diana (G1) last year. Finally, lets close out the Chad Brown superfecta with #3 Gina Romantica (3/1). She was a disappointing seventh in the Jenny Wiley (G1) last time out at Keeneland, which was her first race since last year’s Breeders’ Cup. She seemed a bit eager in that effort and appeared to be fighting jockey Tyler Gaffalione a bit down the backstretch as if she wanted to be more forward. She did not have her typical closing kick, which did not surprise me after seeing how keen she was early as she expended energy early in the race. She has been training beautifully for Brown leading up to Friday and I suspect we will see an improved effort. While she is a two-time Grade 1 winner, she also has traditionally been a high-80s to low-90s Beyer Speed Figure runner with two huge 100+ efforts in the First Lady (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). It wouldn’t shock me if she won, but I have her a cut below the top Brown runners.

With rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday, I want to find runners who excel over soft ground and Joseph O’Brien’s #5 American Sonja (10/1) fits the bill. I do not think you will get the morning line price on her, but she should still provide value in a loaded field of runners. She finished second over exceedingly soft ground last year in the Saratoga Oaks to Elusive Princess who is a soft turf specialist. Most recently she was seen winning the Prix Allez France (G3) at Longchamp over soft ground going 1 ¼ miles, which would seem to be an ideal test for Friday. It was her first race in over seven months, and she beat Pensee du Jour who came back to win the Prix Corrida (G2) her next time out. Jockey Frankie Dettori takes the mount and I always like seeing him on European imports as he understands what those runners prefer over some North American jockeys. She has good tactical speed, so expect her to track the early pace and make a move at the top of the stretch. Another horse that should provide some value is #1 McKulick (10/1) for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. The daughter of Frankel has never finished outside the exacta in her four career starts at The Spa and scored a victory in the Waya (G3) the only time she ran over a soft turf course. She is cutting back slightly in distance as she has been doing 11 and 12 furlongs in recent starts but has success running between 9 and 10 furlongs as well. She has some tactical speed to ensure she will secure nothing worse than a mid-pack trip on the rail while saving ground. Friday will be her third start back in the form cycle and she’s won her third start back in both 2022 and 2023. At a price, she feels like a horse to include in your tickets. One of my personal favorites, #3 Didia (9/2) is a throwback runner who travels across the country and has handled all manner of turf courses. After winning the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational (G2), she ran third in the Jenny Wiley (G1), which was her first time running over a non-firm turf course in North America. Perhaps she did not like the softer ground, but it was still a solid effort, and she has been remarkably consistent having run between a 93 and 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the last eight races. She is going to show up and run her race. She also possesses good tactical speed and should be sitting a track trip. If the turf course does not allow much passing, then getting horses close to the front will be important. She might not be good enough to win on Friday, but if you’re playing verticals, she is a horse you must include. Finally, #2 English Rose (3/1) for trainer Charlie Appleby is your morning line favorite coming off a runner-up finish in the Jenny Wiley (G1). It is always promising when Appleby runners stick around stateside for a couple of races as the horse can get acclimated to their surroundings. She has been working nicely at Saratoga since mid-May and jockey William Buick is flying over for the weekend to take the mount. If she can build upon the Jenny Wiley (G1) effort than she will be tough to beat and she has run well over softer ground before winning the Balanchine (G2) in Meydan back in February. She might be slightly more one-paced than some of the traditional Appleby horses we have seen who display a huge turn of foot, but she’s still a dangerous win contender.