Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Friday Picks

BELMONT STAKES RACING FESTIVAL - FRIDAY, JUNE 6 PICKS

Highlighted by morning line favorite Raging Sea (5/2), who upset HOTY Thorpedo Anna last time out, Friday’s Grade 1 Ogden Phipps is one of the most competitive races of the weekend. All the runners are Graded Stakes winners and have all run races good enough to win in this spot. I view that as a great opportunity to play against the morning line favorite, who was all out to close after getting a perfect setup from stablemate Randomized in the G1 La Troienne. Expect an honest pace with speedball Randomized drawn to the far outside, Dorth Vader sending from the rail, and Leslie’s Rose and Dazzling Move, who like to be forwardly placed as well.

Top Pick: In a race with a decent amount of speed, but one where you don’t want to be too far out of it either, I landed on a filly who might be the most tactical of the entire group. 6-Tarifa (9/2) is an ultra-consistent Brad Cox trainee, owned and bred by Godolphin, who has never finished off the board in 12 career starts, except in the G1 KY Oaks. Her last win in the G2 Mother Goose could very well be better than it looks on paper, as she set the pace, was challenged by Gun Song down the stretch, who then took the lead, and Tarifa fought back right down to the wire to get the win. Gun Song was in peak form at the time after finishing 2nd to Thorpedo Anna in the G1 Cotillion. After that, we saw Tarifa go to the bench and return for her first start as a 4 YO in the G1 Beholder Mile. She traveled out west and faced the undefeated Bob Baffert trainee, Cavalieri, in her backyard. She ran a respectable third that day, given it was her first start off the bench. Then last time out, we saw her finish 2nd to runaway winner Gin Gin in the G3 Doubledogdare. She was bumped at the start, shuffling her back to last, and she notably made up ground over the Keeneland track despite a wide and difficult trip. She still beat Candied that day, who was closing ahead of her, and Candied won the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes next time out with a 94 BSF. Gin Gin ran true to form next time out to finish 2nd in the G3 Shawnee with a 94 BSF. Tarifa will sit off what looks to be an honest pace, and I believe has good value at 9/2 on the morning line.

Exacta: Another filly I’ll be using on my tickets, and who landed in my second slot, is the 7-Randomized (9/2). She is the speed of the speed and will likely be able to clear everyone to her inside. She absolutely loves Saratoga and won this race last year when she took them gate to wire to pull the upset against Idiomatic. Given that her last two efforts were off a layoff, I believe she could run close to the Randomized we saw win the Ogden Phipps last year in her second start off the bench.

Underneath:

3- Leslie’s Rose (7/2) returned for the first time since July 2024 to run 3rd in the G3 Vagrancy last time out, getting a 93 BSF for the effort. This was her first start in almost a year, and her first start as a 4 YO. It’s notable that she ran that well off the bench and possesses speed that is good enough to put her in a dangerous position against this field. The 2nd place finisher in the G3 Vagrancy, R Disaster, won a listed stakes by over 6 lengths the next time out. After the scratch of Candied, I landed on Leslie’s Rose in my third slot as another filly who seems to have improved from 3 to 4 and also ran one of her career best efforts in last year’s G1 Acorn up here in Saratoga. I believe 4-Raging Sea (5/2) will take a piece in here on class alone, and the fact that there is some speed signed on. She landed in my fourth slot as she will be picking up pieces at the end and has faced Graded Stakes company in all of her starts since she was 4, notably finishing on the board in all 7 with 5 wins.

Will Randomized be able to defend her title and win the Ogden Phipps for a second time, or are you leaning towards shorter prices such as Raging Sea or Leslie’s Rose? Or, maybe you share the same top pick as me in Tarifa who presents good value on the morning line. Reach out on @nyrabets to give your take on this year’s running of the G1 Ogden Phipps?

The build-up to this year’s Acorn is giving me déjà vu as I think back to the 2024 Kentucky Oaks winner, Thorpedo Anna’s win as the heavy favorite last year. Your dominant favorite this year, 2-Good Cheer, shares similar qualities to last year’s Horse of the Year. Both of these fillies came into the G1 Acorn with similar Beyer Speed Figures, and both won under wraps in the majority of their starts. It’s not like Good Cheer is facing anything more difficult than she already has, but I remember the widespread criticism of Thorpedo Anna was that she did not run high enough figures to be competitive against the top 3YO males in the G1 Travers. It just so happened that when she was asked for more, she ran a 111 Beyer Speed Figure, off her G1 Coaching Club American Oaks win, where she ran a 95. My point here is that I can see people critiquing the fact that Good Cheer’s speed figures have not taken a big step up, but it’s important to note that she has never been fully asked. She wins in that ears are pricked, something left in the tank style, which makes you wonder what the ceiling truly is for her.

Top Pick: As I’ve alluded, I’m not trying to beat your 1-2 ML favorite Good Cheer. I believe she is the best filly in this division and has not fully exerted herself yet. There is a decent amount of speed signed on in this field, even after the scratch of Shred the Gnar, and it will set up nicely for Good Cheer, who will come from off the pace as she always does.

Pace: Good Cheer has already put away the fastest filly in here, 3-La Cara, when she wore herself out on the front end after being pressured by Tenma in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. Tenma is a Bob Baffert trainee who was making her first start outside of California, and her speed was a serious threat to La Cara. She stuck around at the end to finish fourth as she was able to track right off La Cara and fits a similar profile to the Michael McCarthy entry in here. The 6-Look Forward will ensure that La Cara does not get a breather, as well as 1-Scottish Lassie, who will need to break quickly from the rail. I believe your top two finishers will be fillies coming from off the pace, and put two forwardly placed fillies who are likely to stick around and take a piece in my third and fourth position.

Underneath: 5-Bless the Broken (10-1) is my straight exacta play underneath Good Cheer. This Will Walden trainee shows up every time and is often overlooked on the tote board. She has a big late kick that will fit well with the speed signed on here, and she put in a strong effort to finish 3rd in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. She is consistently improving, nothing but consistent, and seems to have met her perfect match with HOF jockey John Velazquez.

The 3-La Cara (10-1) finished last in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, and it gives a sign of confidence to enter her back in a spot like this. Granted, that was five weeks ago, and I actually prefer her works going into the Acorn than I did going into the Oaks. I did not use her at all in the Oaks as she put in almost too fast a work prior, and was facing more pressure on the front end than I think she will here. If she gets up front and has things her way, she will be extremely dangerous, especially after the scratch of Shred the Gnar. I’ll use her third, as I believe she will take some money after scratches, and believe 5-Bless the Broken can run her down to pick up second. The 6-Look Forward (15-1) cut back in distance last time out and won the G2 8 Belles. She has a solid foundation going longer as well, and I like the stretch back out in distance after her last start. Her speed will ensure her presence is felt early on, and if she can track right off 3-La Cara and 1-Scottish Lassie, she has a very good shot at rounding the super at a decent price.

I’m very confident that Good Cheer will be your clear winner, but I’m also confident that Bless the Broken will round the exacta on Friday. Are you as bullish on Good Cheer as I am, or are you swinging in a completely different direction? If you are viewing Good Cheer as a strong single in here, share your take on who you like underneath on @nyrabets.