Tampa Bay Derby Picks

Pace: Expect a strong early pace in this renewal of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) with #1 Owen Almighty (5/1) sending from the rail with strong early speed. He has sprinter speed and won the Pasco Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion, so jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be intentional about getting him out early. Expect him to be joined by #4 Brodeur (15/1) who also has sprinter speed after winning a six-furlong contest two back in frontrunning fashion and followed it up doing the same thing routing in his next start. Look for horses like #6 Naughty Rascal (20/1) and #7 Patch Adams (2/1) to track the early pace with Patch Adams being the one most likely to stalk the early leaders. Tampa Bay Downs is a speed-favoring track that tends to be particularly speed favoring on big days. That said, we have seen a horse like Tapit Trice win this race coming from well back. The intriguing part about the pace scenario will be either the Chad Brown duo of #2 Chancer McPatrick (8/5) or #3 Hill Road (4/1) who are both deep closers will show any better early speed with the addition of blinkers.

#7 Patch Adams (2/1) – The Brad Cox trainee is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Southwest (G3) last time out at Oaklawn Park in a race where he bobbled at the start and simply did not have the trip he needed to be successful. The son of Into Mischief has been the odds-on favorite in all three career starts but has only won once going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. While his last effort might not have been what the bettors wanted to see, it showed that he could take some kickback and pass horses. Ultimately, he flattened out in the stretch after making a middle move, which can be successful at Oaklawn, but is also a tough move for any young horse to make in their first effort going two turns. There is nothing disqualifying in his pedigree to suggest that he cannot get the 8.5 furlongs on Saturday, and he draws exceptionally well to the outside. Expect jockey Florent Geroux to be aggressive out of the gate to ensure he is sitting on the lead or closely stalking in the two path going into the first turn. Chancer McPatrick is the bigger name in the race and is likely to take some money along with the local horse Owen Almighty. As a result, for the first time ever, you might have an honest price on a Brad Cox trainee who should sit an ideal trip on a track that favors speed.

#2 Chancer McPatrick (8/5) – The 2024 Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) winner is the most decorated runner in the field for trainer Chad Brown, but he is not without questions. Those two Grade 1 victories came around one turn and there is a thought that Chancer, who is a deep closer, benefits from the faster pace of one-turn races, which only gained credence with his sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in November, which was his first go around two turns. However, the son of McKinzie who is out of the Bernardini mare, should have no issue with distance, but it could present a challenge on Saturday if he leaves himself with too much to do at the top of the stretch. I love the move by Chad Brown to add blinkers as one thing that was notable about his victory in the Champagne (G1) was he broke well that day but simply drifted to the back of the field during the early stages of the race. The fact he does not have issues at the break is promising and the blinkers might simply keep him engaged during the early stages of the race so that he does not give himself too much of a deficit. If jockey Flavien Prat can keep him close to the pace early without it mitigating his late kick, then he should be in a good position coming for home. Much like Brown’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone, the key will be making up ground on the turn, which is something Prat does masterfully. My only concern is relying on a deep closer on a speed-favoring track and the unknown of how the equipment change could impact his running style.

#1 Owen Almighty (5/1) – As races get longer, I am not entirely convinced Brian Lynch’s son of Speightstown will enjoy added distance, but he showed last time out that he can hold his own at 8.5 furlongs over Tampa’s track as he dueled with eventual winner John Hancock in the Sam F. Davis. Much like Patch Adams and Chancer McPatrick, he is also seeking his first win around two turns. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aggressive from the start due to his post draw on the inside rail in combination with the horse’s natural speed. He should lead them into the first turn and the question will be whether he has the talent to hold off the challengers the last half furlong if he gets harassed most of the way around. He has a better group running against him than last time out, which is why I do not have him higher, but he is a horse that has crossed the wire first or second in all five career starts, so he runs his race no matter what. He will need to improve upon his career best Beyer Speed Figure should a horse like Chancer McPatrick or Patch Adams run to their career bes, as he has yet to crack 90. He has been training well for Lynch who knows how to get horses ready for these preps at Tampa Bay Downs as he won the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby a few years ago with Classic Causeway.

#3 Hill Road (4/1) – Chad Brown’s other runner was an unexpected surprise in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as the European-based runner who had only run on turf for trainer Adrian Murray came over to Del Mar and was one of the few horses to make up ground in that race going from tenth to third while hitting the board at 61/1 odds. The son of Quality Road was transferred to Chad Brown after the impressive performance on dirt and there is plenty to think that performance can be replicated as he is out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare. He earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure at Del Mar and has been training nicely for Brown at Payson Park. Like Chancer McPatrick, he is getting blinkers added, but it is unclear if he needs them for the same reason. I break that up because in his two starts on the turf overseas, he displayed good early speed but was simply shuffled back in his lone dirt effort. I have often discussed how speed in turf routes and dirt routes can be two different things, but he appears to be more than capable of comfortably sitting a mid-pack trip for jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Hill Road is the clear X-factor in this race and while I do not love the 4/1 morning line, should he float up to 6/1 range, he comes a horse that you should consider betting. Of course, if he starts to take money, it might also be a sign that “they” knew the horse is sitting on a huge effort.