Sunland Derby Picks

It is hard to get around Bob Baffert’s invader from Southern California, #4 Getaway Car (9/5), in this race. The son of Curlin might only be the fourth or fifth best three-year-old colt in Baffert’s barn, but he still has an impressive resume having won the Best Pal (G3) and finishing second in both the American Pharaoh (G1) and the Los Alamito Futurity (G2). He has outstanding early speed, but to this point he has not shown the ability to pass other horses, so his only way to win would appear to be taking them gate-to-wire. Baffert’s #1 jockey, Juan Hernandez, is making the trip to Sunland Park for the mount and has ridden the horse in every career start. Despite the Curlin influence up top, I do wonder whether he is a horse that might have more of a one-turn future, but he should be able to handle the 8.5 furlongs at a track like Sunland Park. His elite early speed and back class make him very hard to beat, but if it happens, it will be because a horse like #1 Itsmybirthday (20/1) or #3 Smash It (12/1) gun it for the first turn and get ahead of him while forcing too hot of a pace. If that happens, look for a horse like #8 Touchy (4/1) to get the right trip as the Wesley Ward trainee is stretching out to two turns for the first time, but has a natural tracking running style that would allow him to get first crack at the leaders. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard and is one of the best at coming from off the pace to win. The son of Nyquist has done little wrong despite only having one career victory as he followed that up with a runner-up finish in the Turfway Prevue Stakes last time out. Ward has continually been working the horse at five furlongs to build up his base for stretching out, but the pedigree would suggest going two turns is well within his grasp. One horse that will not have to get used to new surroundings is #6 Take Charge Tom (8/1) for trainer Robertino Diodoro who made his first two starts at Turf Paradise before coming to Sunland Park last time out and winning the Riley Allison Derby, which is a local prep for this race. Despite starting his career running against maiden optional claimers, he is now a perfect 3-3 with two stakes victories and steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures. Like Touchy, he also can track the early pace before making his move on the turn or the top of the stretch. I love some of his workouts leading up to the race, particularly that strong 58.3 second five-furlong work at Turf Paradise on February 6. Workouts like those show he can hang with the out-of-towners. His pedigree might not be as sparkling as the top two, but his dam has produced nothing but winners and Tom’s d’Etat has done just fine with dirt routers to this point. At a big price, he is an intriguing alternative to the favorites. I am fading a couple of other runners though, particularly #7 McKinzie Street (4/1) and #9 Caldera (5/1). Those two have some red flags for me. With McKinzie Street, he has regressed in each career start and looked incredibly bad last time out. Despite the trainer change, I need to see a new version of this horse before I trust him in a big spot. Meanwhile, legend D. Wayne Lukas trains Caldera who won impressively with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure last time out going two turns at Oaklawn Park, but it also came with Lasix and corresponds with a significant Beyer Speed Figure jump from his first two career attempts. As a result, another local horse, #2 Remember Big Jim (10/1) sneaks into my top four as the son of Medaglia d’Oro is still a maiden but ran a very strong second in the Riley Allison Derby last time out. The horse is more of a closer but has shown the ability to make up ground over this track. I have a hard time seeing this one in the winner’s circle at the end of the day but could hit the board and help enrich your tickets. He also has a strong five-furlong bullet work leading up to this race and registered his career-best Beyer Speed Figure when stretching out to two turns for the first time.