Smarty Jones Stakes Picks

#6 Hot Property (8/5) – It feels boring to pick a Brad Cox favorite, particularly one only making his second career start, but I have some questions about #1 Kale’s Angel (2/1) as the second choice and ultimately landed on this son of Medaglia d’Oro as my top pick. Cox’s success at Oaklawn and for owners Gary & Mary West are a big reason why. Over the last three years at Oaklawn Park, Cox horses have won at a 32% clip in non-graded stakes action and his second-time starters have won 25% of their starts in Hot Springs over that same period. Nationally, he has been sitting at a 48%-win rate with second-time starters in non-graded stakes races over the last five years. Meanwhile, Cox’s biggest owners outside of Godolphin are Gary & Mary West. Over the last five years, horses owned by the Wests have been winning at a 45% clip in non-graded stakes races. As for the horse, he is clearly built to be on the Derby trail as he is out of a multiple stakes winning mare who won sprinting and routing. He is also the half-sibling to the 2017 Black Eyed Susan (G2) winner Actress. He won impressively in debut at Fair Grounds, and it was promising to see the runner-up that day, Seattle Road, came back to win next time out at Fair Grounds against maiden special weight company. Cox has been putting the horse through a nice series of maintenance works leading up to the race and while he went gate-to-wire in debut, it seems as if this one can rate. He is also only one of two horses in the field that have won at today’s distance.

#8 Coal Battle (9/2) – The winner of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park last month might be short on pedigree, but he has proven the ability to win going two turns. Trainer Lonnie Briley’s son of Coal Front, who is standing for $2,000 in Louisiana, is a perfect 3-3 on the dirt and answered some skeptics last time out winning over a fast track for the first time. He is an off-the-pace runner who should sit a decent trip given the number of horses who will likely want to go to the front. While he is stuck in the outside post, plenty of room should be cleared up for him to work over toward the rail behind the initial speed in the race. His dirt races have gotten progressively faster, and his 84 Beyer Speed Figure is equal to Hot Property. I like that Briley has kept him at Oaklawn Park this entire time as the horse has gotten used to the track despite never racing over the surface. The modest connections and limited pedigree are why you should be able to get good value on a horse that is a proven winner doing two turns and who should appreciate going a little longer, particularly given the early pace scenario.

#1 Kale’s Angel (2/1) – Trainer Pete Miller’s entry is coming off a win in the Advent Stakes last month at Oaklawn Park in his first attempt on the dirt. The previously Southern California-based runner had been exclusively running on the turf prior to that and had broken his maiden sprinting five furlongs at Del Mar back in August. However, now he stretched out over a mile for the first time, but he has gone two turns a few times before on the turf in both the Zuma Beach (G3) and in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes during Breeders’ Cup weekend. He finished fourth and eleventh, respectively, and never was a threat to win either coming for home. I am concerned about his ability to get the distance in part because horses traditionally can get longer distances on the turf than they can on the dirt, so if he is already struggling going two turns on the grass, it is hard to think he will suddenly handle it better on the main track at Oaklawn Park. Additionally, his pedigree is still a question mark. He is sired by Complexity, who is a nice sire, but it is still unproven whether his offspring will like going longer. In fact, his only dirt route winner was a one-turn mile winner in a NY-bred race at Aqueduct. Meanwhile, the dam’s only other raced foal exclusively stuck to sprinting. Obviously, the 93 Beyer Speed Figure from the Advent is going to get your attention, and while it is true that he should be able to save ground on the rail, I do not believe he will be able to go all the way with this group pressing and chasing him.

#5 Mo Quality (5/1) – This last out maiden winner has one thing that I find particularly appealing about young horses stepping up in class, which is that he has shown the ability to pass other horses. In debut, he broke at the back of an 11-horse field and managed to nearly run them all down in the stretch to finish second. From there, he cleaned up his start and tracked the early pace before taking over and easily winning at Churchill Downs. The son of Mo Town gets jockey Junior Alvarado up on the mount who rode him to victory last time and should be able to get him in a solid position just flanking the early speed of Kale’s Angel. He is trying two turns for the first time as both his previous starts were at 6 ½ furlongs. While Mo Town is likely a better sprint influence, his offspring can win going long and there is enough distance influence underneath on Mo Quality to suggest the 1 1/16 miles will not be too much. The horse has been working out consistently at Turfway Park for trainer Christopher Davis who might not have the cream of the crop in terms of horseflesh but wins at a 19% clip over the last five years in non-graded stakes races with a $3.22 ROI. A horse that will be an honest price and has shown the ability to pass others might still have to answer the distance question, but you’re getting better odds here than on the other top contenders.