Santa Anita Derby Picks

Pace: A short field for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) makes the pace scenario a challenge in part because trainer Bob Baffert has the two primary speed horses in the form of #2 Citizen Bull and #4 Barnes. Both horses have been given easy leads in previous starts with Barnes showing some tactical ability having sat third in his maiden-breaking debut and stalking from second in his impressive San Vicente (G2) victory. Meanwhile, Citizen Bull has won gate-to-wire the last three times out, including two Grade 1 victories during that span. The issue in determining pace is figuring out which horse will send to the front and which horse will rate. Certainly, a horse like #5 Baeza could also try to send to the front, though the fractions from his maiden-breaking victory last time out going a mile seems to indicate he would be best sitting off the pace. In general, I am higher on Citizen Bull as a horse, but I think Barnes might be faster to the first turn, particularly with jockey Juan Hernandez aboard who is always best when he goes straight to the front. Either way, it is unlikely to be a hot pace by Santa Anita standards while also not being particularly contested, which could make it more challenging for horses coming from off the pace.

#2 Citizen Bull – The 2024 Champion Two-Year-Old Male and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner has only raced once in 2025 when he took the Robert B. Lewis (G3) back in February where he easily bested stablemates Rodriguez and Madaket Road. Trainer Bob Baffert has treated Citizen Bull as his #1 horse in training despite horse like Barnes and Cornucopian attracting more attention on social media. Citizen Bull has been kept in training in California where he has been building up his foundation with a series of six-furlong workouts and got tuned up for this race with consecutive aggressive five-furlong workouts going 59.4 seconds on March 23 and 58.2 seconds on March 29. While he has not had to pass a single horse since September 2024, he showed that he can do it in that race, so it is not the end of the world if he must stalk Barnes from second. His lone loss, going seven furlongs in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), was the only time jockey Martin Garcia was not aboard as the horse is a perfect 4-4 winning with him riding. To be clear, I prefer my second choice in this race in the Kentucky Derby, but due to the lack of pace and the likelihood of this being a merry-go-round race, I think Citizen Bull holds the advantage. The pedigree on Citizen Bull feels like it is maxed out at nine furlongs with Into Mischief up top out of a Distorted Humor mare which has more sprint influence. However, the way Baffert has managed this horse and the fact that it feels like Barnes has taken a significant back, Citizen Bull has reasserted himself as the #1 horse coming out of Baffert’s barn. The one note of caution is that Baffert runners have largely disappointed this Kentucky Derby prep season with the likes of Cornucopian, Madaket Road, Gaming, and Getaway Car all falling short of expectations.

#1 Journalism – The Michael McCarthy trainee is my favorite horse in the Kentucky Derby prep cycle. The son of Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare is bred for the first Saturday in May and should relish every step of 1 ¼ mile distance. However, Saturday’s race might create some challenges for Journalism who comes from off the pace and will be doing so in a paceless race. I also think there might be reason to question the quality of the San Felipe (G2) effort because Barnes, who he blew by late in the stretch, has seemingly regressed coming out of this race and it could be fair to point out that Journalism has yet to face the best Baffert horse. He answered the bell at every call as he beat Barnes, Rodriguez, Getaway Car, and Gaming the last two times out. If he can win again on Saturday, he would likely stamp himself as the favorite going into Churchill Downs since he overcomes track bias, short fields, and controlled pace scenarios while still finding a way to win. I believe his last Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) of a 108, which is the top figure in the entire three-year-old crop. He has been training well since that last effort and comes into Saturday off a pair of controlled five-furlong works. He will be able to save every bit of ground from the inside rail and should either be able to tip out at the top of the stretch or see if a seam opens on the inside. Jockey Umberto Rispoli has ridden the horse to perfection in each of the last two efforts, so it understands the dynamics he will be facing on Saturday.

#5 Baeza – I am omitting Barnes from my top three only because I do not know what to make of the horse who ran a 105 BSF for his runner-up performance in the San Vicente (G2). He is incredibly talented but might be distance limited and has been training inconsistently leading up to Saturday. Baffert took the blinkers off him two works back and he was trounced by Rodriguez who is your morning line favorite in Saturday’s Wood Memorial (G2). He then put the blinkers back on and looked more like his old self on Monday when he went four furlongs in 48 seconds flat. That said, he was unable to win with a comfortable lead going 8.5 furlongs in the San Vicente, so now he must face the top dog in his own barn for the first time, not to mention the horse that easily dispatched of him last time out. As a result, I think the last out maiden winner for trainer John Shirreffs presents a viable alternative to use in exactas and trifectas. The $1.2 million son of McKinzie lost to the aforementioned Rodriguez two back but then came out of that effort to easily romp home the best against Westwood and Mellencamp while being assigned a 93 BSF. He has good early speed and draws well to the outside where jockey Hector Berrios can judge the early pace and likely have him flank off Barnes or Citizen Bull. It will be a tall task for him to tackle nine furlongs while switching off Lasix, but if there is any horse that has the pedigree to do it, it is Baeza. Not so much because of McKinzie, who has been a solid first-crop sire, but rather because he is out of the legendary broodmare Puca who also produced Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Belmont Stakes (and Haskell) winner Dornoch. We focus so much on sire stats that we often overlook broodmares who many times are the ones that really have the influence over the distance and ground a horse prefers. In the case of Baeza, he as Triple Crown pedigree…but maybe he’s a sure bet for the Preakness where he could complete the family Triple Crown.