Louisiana Derby Picks

Pace: Expect an honest pace with the potential for strong fractions in this year’s renewal of the Louisiana Derby (G2). It is important to remember the track at Fair Grounds has played fairly in recent years with horses like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Disco Time winning recent prep races while other horses like Magnitude and Epicenter won in forward fashion. There are several horses that are likely to press an early pace on Saturday starting from the inside rail with #1 John Hancock (7/2) who has only ever run on the lead and his post position will dictate that he is sent aggressively from the rail to ensure a good trip. #4 Yinzer (12/1) won last time out in gate-to-wire fashion, and it would appear needed to get to the lead to have any chance at the upset. Meanwhile, #5 Caldera (5/1) broke his maiden in frontrunning style but did pass some horse (of lower quality) last time out in the Sunland Derby. The duo of #6 Built (4/1) and #7 Vassimo (12/1) fit the same description as horses with good early speed that are each getting blinkers added. While blinkers are not always added for speed, they are likely to inject some more pace into the early going of the race. Finally, #8 Furio (12/1) is a speedball who wired the field going six furlongs two races back and should be up on the lead. With so much speed, it sets up for the possibility of a closer like we saw last year with Catching Freedom and Honor Marie charging late.

#2 Chunk of Gold (8/1) – This feels like a wide-open race where you could make a reasonable case for nearly every horse entered to win. In those instances, I often find myself willing to take a risk with a longshot as I believe the favorites have some potential vulnerabilities. As a result, I am going with a horse that fetched a whopping $2,500 at the Fasig-Tipton Keeneland October sale back in 2023, which is Chunk of Gold. The son of Preservationist out of a Cairo Prince mare has good pedigree despite the modest sales price as he is the full sibling to Band of Gold who won last year’s Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park. As for this Ethan West trainee, he started his career at Turfway Park where he won in debut over the all-weather track going six furlongs in a restricted maiden special weight race. Based upon that performance he stepped up to face open stakes company next time out in the Leonatus Stakes going a mile where he finished second to Baby Max who subsequently went on to finish second by a half-length in his next start in the Battaglia Memorial. As for Chunk of Gold, West decided to switch surface and brought him to Fair Grounds to run in the Risen Star (G2) where he settled toward the back half of the field before making a late rally to capture second over Built. Magnitude was such a runaway winner in that race that it is hard to judge some of the other performances, but Chunk of Gold was the best of the rest and gives some Two Phil’s vibes from a couple years ago as a horse that was good on synthetic and dirt. He also shares the same jockey as Jareth Loveberry is on the mount. There is no doubt the horse will need a little bit of a setup but should get ample pace to run into again on Saturday and should prefer going a little longer with his pedigree. He has been training well at Turfway Park leading up to his next test and is a horse that is likely to be overlooked by the betting public. It is also noteworthy that the fifth-place finisher in the Risen Star (G2), American Promise, came back to romp in the Virginia Derby, which gives more confidence in the quality of field he mostly beat that day.

#6 Built (4/1) – While he was nabbed by a head by Chunk of Gold in the Risen Star (G2), this son of Hard Spun also ran a big race that day finishing third. Trainer Wayne Catalano is adding blinkers for a horse that won the Gun Runner Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion three races back when he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He came back from that effort to finish second in the Lecomte (G3), which I viewed as an encouraging effort as he broke from the #12 post position, was running over a wet (and slowing) track, and showed the ability to pass horses late. He got outfinished by Disco Time, but the real concern came when the race came back slow, and he was assigned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure. I never believed that number and it was good to see him bounce back to get a 92 BSF in his Risen Star (G2) effort. There should be minimal concerns about distance as he is out of a Curlin mare, and he has been training beautifully for Catalano leading up to the race. As mentioned above, the initial feedback on the Risen Star field has been largely positive as American Promise moved forward to win in his next start and even eighth-place finisher Render Judgement came back to run a better figure next time out while finishing second in the Virginia Derby. Built will likely be up close to the pace, but while the blinkers have been added, he does not need the lead the way others might. He has shown the ability to pass horses and if I want any horse at a short price in this field, it is likely this one who I believe can continue to improve off that effort chasing a runaway winner last time out.

#7 Vassimo (12/1) – This is where things get complicated. I could legitimately make a case for about five horses to fill out my third and fourth choices as the gap between my preferences is minimal, but I will side with a longer price in the form of Vassimo who fits the profile of horses I tend to prefer. He is a lightly raced horse with ascending Beyer Speed Figures who has yet to run his best race. The potential of this horse outweighs some of the concerns, but there is plenty to like. Much is likely to be made of trainer Todd Pletcher adding blinkers to this horse as his trainer stats around that move have drawn attention recently. Over the last five years, Pletcher is only 1-11 winning when adding blinkers for the first time to three-year-old horses in dirt route graded stakes races. However, what few mention is that he is 8-11 (73%) in the money with those horses. Additionally, if you just look at how he does overall when adding blinkers to three-year-olds in dirt route races (eliminating the graded stakes filter), he is 14-69 (20%) winning those races, which is on-par with his five-year winning percentage. The decision to put blinkers on Vassimo makes sense after the horse seemingly lost interest or focus during the middle part of the Risen Star (G2) where he faded back to seventh before making a slight rally to get into the superfecta. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. stays aboard and the promising part, like Built, is that this son of Nyquist has shown the ability to pass horses in his previous starts, so while the blinkers will add speed, he does not need to be on the lead. He should sit a nice trip as you can expect #8 Furio to bolt to the front, but otherwise, he should be sitting no worse than two-wide in the third position going into the first turn, which is an ideal spot for a jockey like Ortiz Jr. who is as good as them come when riding a horse in a tracking trip. I have doubts whether we get 12/1 come post time, but he is a horse that I feel confident in including in my vertical wagers and would be kicking myself if I left him off my Pick 5 ticket too.

#1 John Hancock (7/2) – Again, I could have gone in a few different directions here. I want to briefly mention #5 Caldera (5/1) for trainer D. Wayne Lukas who was the flavor of the week right up until they ran the Virginia Derby when Getaway Car, with whom Caldera dueled in the Sunland Derby, finished a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Virginia Derby. Additionally, Caldera is owned by MyRacehorse, which means he will take significant money at the windows, which could knock down his morning line value. He is a nice horse, and it would hardly shock me to see him run well, but I do think it is fair to question the caliber of competition he faced at Sunland Park though he’s been training lights out for Lukas at Oaklawn Park. Additionally, a horse like #3 Tiztastic (8/1) should sit a similar trip to Chunk of Gold and could very well finally get that breakthrough win on dirt that has proven elusive after he won twice on the turf. Even a horse like #8 Furio (12/1) has supporters and the horse appears to be out of a highly coveted mare whose second foal (a full sibling to Furio) sold for $900,000 and now she is in foal to Tapit. However, I still think the waters might be too deep given he couldn’t hold off #9 Instant Replay (6/1) last time out going 1 1/16 miles when he got a rather comfortable lead. Ultimately, I went to Brad Cox’s favorite with my fourth choice as a horse that does have ability but also comes with question marks. The undefeated son of Constitution won in debut and backed that up with a victory in the Sam F. Davis where he dueled Owen Almighty down the stretch. All that horse did was come back to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), which certainly flatters the form of John Hancock. However, his best Beyer Speed Figure is an 84, which is tied for the lowest career-best figure in the field (Furio also topped out with an 84). He will need to get significantly faster while facing pace pressure. Additionally, Cox’s barn has not been churning out Derby contenders this year. While he has three very solid fillies in the form of Good Cheer, Muhimma, and Immersive, the last of whom is on the bench, his colts have disappointed. We have seen in recent weeks both Patch Adams and Rapture badly disappointed, and even Tappan Street, who ran second to Burnham Square in the Holy Bull (G3), cannot be considered a top contender considering how poorly that race has come back to this point. All that said, John Hancock still has good early speed to put himself in the early running and should save every inch of ground from the inside post position while being ridden by the reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat. He will need to get faster, but there is a chance he can, but at what price are you willing to take that risk?