John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Picks

#12 Maximum Promise (8/1) – With the scratch of morning line favorite First Resort, this Maximum Security for trainer Kenny McPeek becomes my top choice. He is coming out of a fourth-place finish in the Lecomte (G3) where his Beyer Speed Figure took a dip, but there is reason to believe it will bounce back. If you remember the Lecomte (G3) was run at night over a wet, slowing track and many of the horses saw their Beyer Speed Figures decline. However, we have now seen two prominent horses from that race come back and run significantly faster in their next start. Magnitude went from a 74 to a 108 while blitzing the field in the Risen Star (G2) last weekend while runner-up in the Lecomte (G3), Built, went from a 77 to 92 while finishing third in the Risen Star (G2). What is notable about Built is the 92 BSF represents the same number he ran in the Gun Runner Stakes earlier this winter, which makes me think the Lecomte (G3) figure is going to look artificially slow for some horses. As for Maximum Promise, he has the right sort of running style for this race as he prefers to track the pace and if jockey Luan Machado can work out a trip from the outside post, he should have him in a favorable spot turning for home. My biggest concern is the lack of experience over the synthetic surface and McPeek has not worked the horse out over the all-weather track, so Saturday will be a bit of an experiment, but the horse has shown he can pass other horses while displaying the necessary speed to take a field gate-to-wire as he did in his maiden-breaking victory.

#4 Calling Card (10/1) – The son of Complexity is trying synthetic for the first time for trainer Mike Maker but has plenty to like. The New York-bred started his career on the grass but then dominated state-bred competition by 17+ lengths before stepping up to take on optional claiming company at Oaklawn Park where he finished third and was bested by Sandman who is your morning line favorite in Sunday’s Rebel (G2), so there is no disrespect in losing to that level of competition. He took another step up in class running eighth in the Lecomte (G3), but as noted above, that race took place over a wet, slowing track, so he might not have liked track conditions and never made a serious bid during the race. However, Maker must have a decent amount of belief in him to keep him on the Kentucky Derby trail but moving him to Turfway Park to face slightly easier competition. The horse has been training beautifully leading up to the race and we have seen the Lecomte (G3) come back strong with Magnitude blowing out the Risen Star (G2) field and Built coming back to run a solid third in that same race. If Calling Card can run back to the 87 Beyer Speed Figure he ran in his maiden-breaking effort, then he has a serious chance to upset the field since that figure is right on par with a horse like First Resort who ran an 88 Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He will need to show he can beat winners, but he has run against some tough competition since exiting the ranks of New York-breds and Maker knows how to win at Turfway Park.

#7 Baby Max (6/1) – The winner of the Leonatus Stakes last time out got the ideal trip tracking the early pace before drawing clear of the field in the stretch. I am not sure he will get a similarly perfect setup on Saturday as he will be facing a tougher group and could be shuffled a little further back than he was last time out. The son of Maximum Mischief trained by Kelsey Danner has run well in both starts over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park and has shown the ability to pass horses from further back as he did against optional claiming company two back. He will need to continue to get faster but showed a 15-point Beyer Speed Figure improvement in his last start, so another modest improvement would put him right there with the other major players. He had a nice local work leading up to this race, going four furlongs in 48.1 seconds to be sixth of 41 in the morning on February 14. The horse has never run a bad race, but the caliber of competition will be the biggest question mark for him in the starting gate, but there is some potential here. If his price floats up from the 6/1 morning line, then he definitely is a horse you should consider using in your vertical wagers.

#3 Studlydoright (8/1) – The son of Nyquist has been a regular in my top contenders when he has run in New York before, but he has had mixed results. He is cross entered in a stakes race at Laurel Park on Saturday where he is the 8/5 favorite, so it will be interesting to see where trainer John Robb decides to send him. After winning in debut and taking the Tremont Stakes at Saratoga in his second career start, he was runner-up in the Sanford (G3), which gave me hope he could continue to build upon that. While he came back to win the Nashua in November, he followed that up with also-ran performances in the Remsen and the Jerome, the latter of which he was favored to win come post time. However, I like that he is trying something new with going to synthetic as Nyquist is a good influence on that surface and there is some modest synthetic pedigree on the dam side as well. It is notable that he has not grown much since his two-year-old season where he towered over many of his fellow juveniles. I will be eager to see how he looks in the paddock as it could determine just how much I would leverage my opinion of him in wagers. While he might have disappointed recently, he is still a two-time stakes winner and has the best back class and foundation in the field.