Jeff Ruby Steaks Picks

Pace: Expect #8 Innovator (15/1) to go straight to the lead in the 2025 renewal of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). The horse has outstanding speed and clearly needs the lead to be successful nearly took them gate-to-wire in the Lecomte (G3). Who decides to go to with him is a big question mark, but you would imagine a horse like #2 Charlie’s to Blame (15/1) would go with him early though that horse did not show good speed the one time he ran on dirt but does seem to have legitimate speed on the turf the last two times out. Additionally, #3 California Burrito (7/2) could go straight to the front, which is how he won his last two races, but he did show the ability to come from off the pace in his maiden breaking win. Finally, #6 Baby Max (5/1) is a horse that has good speed and is getting blinkers added, which could accentuate his early pace projection. That said, it does feel like Innovator might be able to get things his own way up front, but the question is whether he is good enough.

#10 Maximum Promise (5/1) – The horse that impressed me the most coming out of the Battaglia Memorial was trainer Kenny McPeek’s son of Maximum Security as the horse made up significant ground on a speed favoring track in a race where the frontrunners managed to carve out slow fractions as they went 49.2 seconds to the half-mile and 1:14 to the six-furlong mark. With a faster pace and a fairer track, I believe this horse could move forward to collect the win under the ride of Frankie Dettori. The horse has interesting running lines as he started on the turf but broke his maiden impressively over the main track at Ellis Park in his second career start. From there he went to the bench for over five months before returning in the Lecomte (G3), which felt like an aggressive placement for a last out maiden winner off a layoff. He ultimately ran a solid fifth and make up significant ground late to only finish 2 ½ lengths off the leader Disco Time. McPeek then moved him to Turfway Park for the Battaglia Memorial where he finished third. He did not have the best start that day and should he get off better on Saturday he will have a chance to make a more sustained run at the leaders. He is now third back in the form cycle and appears to be relishing extra ground as the Maximum Security offspring have been doing much better going two turns.

#9 Poster (3/1) – The son of Munnings out of a Tapit mare has the blend of speed and stamina that you like to see in any Kentucky Derby prospect, but he has largely done his best working coming from off the pace to win the Remsen (G2) two back and finished third last time out where he rallied from last on a speed favoring track in the Sam F. Davis. That race, more so than the Remsen (G2), has had solid early returns as runner-up Owen Almighty ran back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his next start. Should the winner of the Sam F. Davis, John Hancock, win the Louisiana Derby (G2) about twenty minutes after the running of the Jeff Ruby, then you might have an even stronger opinion of that field. The fact Poster made up ground on the Tampa Bay main track is impressive given now much it favored speed, particularly on the day in question. I will always have questions about whether a horse by Munnings will want to go long, but the dam side pedigree is all stamina, and we have already seen him win at nine furlongs in the Remsen (G2). He is second back from a brief freshening and picks up jockey John Velazquez for the mount. There should be decent fractions, and you could easily make the case that he has faced better competition than most of the other main contenders in the race, so this will hardly be much of a class test. His speed figures need to improve, but he has been training at Turfway Park and is getting familiar with the all-weather track, so that should be an advantage.

#5 Flying Mohawk (15/1) – The word around the track is that Whit Beckman might have a good one in this turf horse who is trying synthetic for the first time. Remember we saw Endlessly dominate this race last year coming in as primarily a turf horse and there might be some similar vibes with this son of Karakontie out of a Twirling Candy mare. The horse took a little while to win but finally broke his maiden, going two turns at Churchill Downs back in October before going to the bench for three months. He returned in January to roll to an easy win against $100,000 optional claiming company at Fair Grounds where he got off to a poor start, sat last, and then blew past the field in the stretch to win easily by two widening lengths. He also earned a career-best 82 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, which could be easily bested on Saturday. He has good speed but can sit a few different trips having won tracking the pace and while closing from the back. The versatility should serve him well, but if jockey JD Ramos gets him out of the gate effectively, he should be more forward and we know what trainer Whit Beckman can do after years of learning under the likes of Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, Beckman campaigned Honor Marie last year and has some top Kentucky Oaks prospects in this year’s crop. You might not get the 15/1 morning line, but I think he could still present outstanding value.

#8 Innovator (15/1) – I am fading California Burrito as he was able to set glacial fractions the last two times out going 1:16.2 and 1:14 to the six-furlong mark in each of those efforts. He will not be able to run anywhere near that pace if he gets on the lead on Saturday and I do not think he makes the lead because D. Wayne Lukas’ horse Innovator will be blowing by him early. The son of Authentic who was a $900,000 sale is one of three potential Kentucky Derby runners for The Coach with the other two being Virginia Derby winner American Promise and Louisiana Derby (G2) hopeful Caldera. Admittedly, Innovator’s last race leaves a lot to be desired as he finished 12th by over 20 lengths, but the previous race is the one that really stands out as he nearly took the Lecomte (G3) field gate-to-wire while getting an aggressive ride from Jaime Torres. Expect a similarly aggressive ride from jockey Nik Juarez on Saturday who has been riding well for Lukas having won last Saturday on American Promise. He is trying synthetic for the first time, but there is plenty of turf influence in the family to suggest he will be able to get the new surface and he has been training lights out leading up to his Turfway Park debut as he recorded a 1:00.2 five-furlong bullet work on March 12 that was first of 14 at Oaklawn Park. Some might point out that he ran his two best efforts over a wet track, but that should translate to the synthetic. Additionally, he has knocked heads against Owen Almighty, Chancer McPatrick, Ferocious, Barnes, Coal Battle, Sandman, and more. He will hardly be intimidated by the likes of Poster, Baby Max, and California Burrito. Can The Coach win two Derby preps two weeks in a row? Maybe. This horse will be included in my tickets because the potential to go gate-to-wire exists.