Gotham Stakes Picks

Pace: There is going to be plenty of early speed in the 2025 renewal of the Gotham (G3), which is a one-turn mile worth 50 points toward the starting gate of the 151st Kentucky Derby. We know the top two favorites will go at each other early as both #5 Sand Devil (9/5) and #4 Sacrosanct (3/1) have outstanding early speed and have both won in gate-to-wire fashion. While both horses have shown the ability to closely stalk the pace, their preference will be to get up front quickly, which is likely to push a strong pace. However, they are unlikely to be alone up front as #1 Scorching (10/1) has a gate-to-wire victory sprinting against stakes company and jockey Eric Cancel will want to get the horse forward from the inside post position. #2 Normandy Coast (15/1) broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion and while he broke toward the back of the field in his next start, he also had very good recovery speed to get up on the pace in short order. One might expect #7 Flood Zone (12/1) to press the pace as the new transfer to the Brad Cox barn might just try to soften up favored Sand Devil for his stablemate Sacrosanct. Finally, #9 Garamond (8/1) is an X-factor as the Chad Brown runner is making only his second start after winning in debut at Tampa Bay Downs, but this will be tougher competition though the horse showed good gate speed while sprinting.

#3 Calling Card (6/1) – With all the projected speed in a one-turn race, I am going to take a stand against the favorites with my top selection and go with Mike Maker’s son of Complexity who, unlike the top two choices, has been racing against open company in recent starts and has an effective off-the-pace running style. While Calling Card started on the turf, he freaked his first time on the dirt as he ran an 87 Beyer Speed Figure and beat NY-bred maidens by 17 ¼ lengths while running a mile at Aqueduct. While not a single horse from that field has gone on to win a subsequent race, it was still a visually impressive effort and showed what the horse can do over this track while going Saturday’s distance. Maker stepped the horse up in class as he ran him at Oaklawn Park against $125K optional claiming company where he finished third to Sandman who followed that up by running second in the Southwest (G2) and third in the Rebel (G3) and is one of the more talented, if not frustrating, horses in his generation. Calling Card then went to the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds where he finished eighth over a wet track, but while only running a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, I believe there is ample reason to believe he can run back to his previous Aqueduct form. First, we have seen the Lecomte (G3) come back strong as sixth-place finisher Magnitude won the Risen Star (G2) in his next start while the runner-up, Built, ran third in that same race, but both horses vastly improved their Beyer Speed Figures with Magnitude going from 74 to 108 and Built going from 77 to 92. We also saw Maximum Promise, who finished fifth in the Lecomte (G3) improve his Beyer Speed Figure from 74 to 80 while running third in the John Battaglia Memorial last weekend at Turfway Park in a race where he was the only horse making up ground on a speed-favoring track. Based on those efforts, there is reason to believe Calling Card will move forward over a fast track and running against easier foes. Maker is also adding blinkers, which is a move I like. I do not think the horse will suddenly be on the lead, but there is every reason to expect the horse to be sitting a little closer to the pace, which will not give him as much to do turning for home.

#4 Sacrosanct (3/1) – The Brad Cox trainee is a perfect 4-4 with three straight stakes victories over state-bred company, which separates him from Sand Devil who has only faced stakes company once before and barely emerged with a victory. Last time out the son of Honest Mischief defeated National Identity by a head in a competitive stretch drive and we saw that horse go on to nearly defeat Sand Devil in his next start in the Damon Runyon Stakes. Sacrosanct has not run since December but has been training regularly for Cox leading up to this race and has won at a mile. Jockey Manny Franco stays aboard, which is promising as he is Cox’s #1 rider in New York and has been aboard for all four career starts. The horse has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and I wonder if there will be some gamesmanship with Cox who also has #7 Flood Zone who could try a few tactics to potentially disrupt Sand Devil. The biggest issue with Sacrosanct is that he will need to get faster if he wants to win as his career-best Beyer Speed Figure (85) is only tied for third best in the field. However, he has every reason to move forward after a few months away from the track. In many ways, the race will be decided in the first 100 yards and I have a lot of Faith in Franco to get this horse in a good spot and give him a winning trip.

#5 Sand Devil (9/5) – The number I keep coming back to is 0-28. That is trainer Linda Rice’s record over the last five years in graded stakes dirt route races. It is fair to point out that during that stretch, Rice has not had many favorites as only Tonal Impact, Arctic Arrogance, and Film Star have gone off at 5/2 or less during that stretch. Sand Devil might very well be a horse that can get the barn on the board under these conditions as the son of Violence is supremely talented and gotten faster with each start recording a career-best (and field-best) 93 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start. His effort in the Damon Runyon could be viewed in two different ways depending on your stance. If you are a supporter of the horse, it showed that he can fight back as he was headed by National Identity in the stretch and went on to win. Additionally, I would argue the ride from jockey Jose Lezcano did the horse little favors as he mitigated his biggest strength, which is his early speed, but strangling out 24.2/48.2 fractions in a seven-furlong sprint, which simply invites the rest of the field into the race. If you are looking to beat the horse you could point to the Rice stats I mentioned earlier as well as the fact the horse will be facing significantly more early pressure while stretching back to a mile and his most dominant performance to date came with the assistance of Lasix, which he will not have Saturday. The pedigree would suggest a mile is not an issue as his dam (Mineralogist) was a dirt route stakes winner and produced another dirt route stakes winner (Can You Diggit). The horse has shown the ability to sit off the pace and draws well outside some of the other main speed threats. The final thing to note is that he is not getting a huge class test as the top competition is other New York breds, so this is not a massive class jump from restricted to open company.

#9 Garamond (8/1) – The biggest X-factor in the race is the son of Uncle Mo who has outstanding pedigree though his future could be on the grass. However, he broke his maiden in a professional manner at Tampa Bay Downs in debut for trainer Chad Brown who now immediately places him on the Kentucky Derby trail. The move from Tampa Bay Downs to stakes competition is an interesting one as the general belief is that Brown debuts his “lesser” winter runners at Tampa Bay Downs as opposed to his “top tier” horses he debuts at Gulfstream Park. Over the last five years, Brown has debuted 15 horses on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs and 60% of them win in debut. However, I was interested in seeing what they do next. Of the 15, seven only raced once, but of the eight that ran back, only two (Good Money and Money Supply) made their next starts against stakes competition on dirt. Both lost. Additionally, as it pertains to the conditions of this race, some of the numbers for Brown are not as strong as you are accustomed to seeing. Over the last five years he is 2-27 switching 3-year-olds off Lasix in graded stakes dirt races and is 1-11 in sprint-to-route in second starts when running against graded stakes company. Admittedly, these are small sample sizes for an Eclipse-winning trainer with thousands of starts over that period of time. Just something to consider. On the track, Garamond looked good in debuting against mediocre competition while getting Lasix. I like his post draw on Saturday quite a bit as jockey Javier Castellano should be able to easily track the early pace and the pedigree would suggest that stretching the horse out is exactly what he wants to do. Ultimately, this is a Juddmonte owned and bred horse who is on the Kentucky Derby trail and should be taken seriously. If I am trying to beat Sand Devil, I would absolutely include him on my Late Pick 5 tickets, but as a straight win bet, I am cautious as to the price I will get on him. If I could guarantee 8/1 odds, then I would gladly put him higher, but I have a feeling he will take money because of Brown’s deserved reputation in New York.