Florida Derby Picks

Pace: Expect a strong pace, but not necessarily a one that falls apart late in the Florida Derby (G1) on Saturday.  While there is certainly some speed signed on, most of the field prefers to stalk, track, or come from further off the pace.  On the inside, #1 Neoequos (10/1) will send from the rail due in part because of his post position in conjunction with his natural sprinter speed, which he displayed when going to the front last time out in the Fountain of Youth (G2).  Moving outside, you have #4 Disruptor (4/1) for trainer Todd Pletcher.  The last out maiden winner stalked the pace in his maiden-breaking victory last month, going seven furlongs, but there is little doubt that he will have plenty of early speed with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. up on the mount.  Finally, #8 Madaket Road (7/2) is getting blinkers off for trainer Bob Baffert who is shipping him in from California and how picks up Mike Smith on the mount after original jockey Tyler Gaffalione broke his ankle during a paddock incident on Wednesday at Gulfstream Park.  Those will be your three main pace players in the race.  There are legitimate distance questions for all three, which makes you think the winner might be coming from off the pace.

#9 Tappan Street (5/1) – This year we have seen Brad Cox’s usually reliable stable of Derby hopefuls falter with horses like Rapture, John Hancock, and Patch Adams fail to deliver in the big spots.  Tappan Street is an interesting case of a Cox horse who quickly moved along on the Derby trail after breaking his maiden in debut going seven furlongs down at Gulfstream Park in December.  He immediately stepped up into the Holy Bull (G3) about four weeks later, going two turns for the first time where he took the lead but then was overtaken by Burnham Square and had to settle for second.  Objectively, it was a good effort.  He showed good patience sitting behind horses, nice professionalism by willingly passing horses, and while he was passed, he kept trying through the wire and was 9+ lengths clear of the third-place finisher.  For such a talented horse with Kentucky Derby aspirations, it is interesting that Cox has opted to wait until the last possible moment to run him again as it is nearly an all-or-nothing race for Tappan Street if he wants to make the starting gate for the first Saturday in May.  He will need to finish first or second to secure enough points since his runner-up finish in the Holy Bull only got him 10 points.  Cox is typically aggressive with placing his horses to maximize their point possibilities, but showed a lot of patience with this one, which could be interpreted as confidence.  He’s been working beautifully down at Payson Park and will be able to sit an effective trip behind the early speed of the race.  Jockey Luis Saez knows Gulfstream Park as well as anyone and this $1 million son of Into Mischief could easily move forward from the 87 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) from his Holy Bull effort.  If there is one drawback is that the Holy Bull (G3) did not come back particularly strong with Burnham Square finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and others not running back well since either. That said, as the fourth choice on the morning line, he is the horse I would most want to bet on from the top contenders when balancing price and his chances of winning.

#10 Sovereignty (8/5) – Your morning line favorite seems to universally be one of the top two or three contenders on everyone’s Kentucky Derby list.  He hinted at his potential last year winning the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs, going two turns over a group that included Sandman and recent Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic.  He validated that potential last month when he stormed from the back of the field and overtook River Thames in the final strides to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) and earn a 95 BSF.  This son of Into Mischief is out of a Bernardini mare and has a late-running style that is thrilling but also does not necessarily give a lot of room for error.  He will need to overcome a far outside post with a relatively short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream Park but should likely tuck over toward the back of the field.  The Godolphin-bred and owned horse trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott has impeccable connections, but there has been a last second jockey change.  Regular rider Junior Alvarado suffered a fractured scapula and is out for three weeks, so Mott (with some likely help from Godolphin) opted to go with New York-based jockey Manny Franco as the replacement.  I mention the influence of Godolphin as Franco rides regularly for that outfit, such as Champion 2-year-old Filly Immersive.  Franco is an excellent replacement who, like Alvarado, has good strength and often finishes races strong.  The latter part is key as Sovereignty will need someone to encourage him to get going and give him a hard ride down the stretch.  Still, it is a change, and Franco has been at Aqueduct nearly all winter, so there might be some adjustments.  The final point about Sovereignty is that he has already secured his spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.  He does not need to win this race.  Nothing in the workout pattern makes me think Mott is turning the screws particularly tight leading up to this.  The horse managed to win the Fountain of Youth off a rather light workout pattern, so he might be good enough to win with only 85% of his best, but it is something to consider when playing him at a short price.

#4 Disruptor (4/1) – A lot of focus this weekend is on Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby who is making his second career start after dazzling in debut at six furlongs.  While the story is slightly different with Todd Pletcher’s Disruptor, this $1.15 million son of Gun Runner is also making a massive jump in class as a last out maiden winner who is only making his third career start.  Like Tappan Street, this is an all-or-nothing race for the Run for the Roses where he must finish in the top two to secure his spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby.  He disappointed in debut going seven furlongs on the Pegasus World Cup Day undercard, but he came back the next time out and romped going the same distance, with Lasix, and drawing off by over 9+ lengths.  Now Pletcher is stepping him up, stretching him out, and switching him off Lasix.  Those are a lot of things to overcome in your third career start at a 4/1 price.  He clearly has talent and was always highly regarded within the barn as a potential Derby starter, but setbacks appear to have kept him from starting down that road sooner.  He has outstanding early speed and should be part of the early dynamics on the front end with Neoequos and Madaket Road.  Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. stays aboard and it will be interesting to see how he navigates the early stretch of the race, particularly with Madaket Road to the outside of him.  He will want to get Disruptor to relax but will not want him to get stuck between horses caught up in a speed contest.  He can sit off the pace, but last time out he had the advantage of the far outside post.  I think he has loads of talent, but I think it might be too much, too soon.

#8 Madaket Road (7/2) – Bob Baffert does not ship many horses into Gulfstream Park for Kentucky Derby prep races, but it speaks to just how many Kentucky Derby hopefuls he has that he must place them across the country.  Madaket Road is a horse that I have always struggled to embrace.  I believe he will ultimately do his best work around one turn and is distance compromised, particularly at nine furlongs.  That said, Gulfstream Park, much like Santa Anita, is a speed favoring track, so Baffert’s decision to send him there makes some sense.  The pedigree is nearly all sprint on the dam side while his sire, Quality Road, is one of the most versatile sires we have and can produce sprinters and routers in equal measures.  However, his running lines suggest he will tire late in this race, particularly if pressed.  However, Baffert has one final trick up his sleeve, which is taking the blinkers off.  It might help the horse relax a bit more, which in turn will ensure a better chance of getting a longer distance.  He has been working out beautifully in California leading up to the race, but there is one last-second complication, which is that scheduled rider Tyler Gaffalione broke his ankle in a paddock accident at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday and is being replaced by Mike Smith.  Smith knowns his way around Gulfstream Park and big races, so there is no concern there, but this will now be the fifth different rider in five races on this horse.  For a runner coming out of a top-notch barn, it seems at least a little curious that not a single jockey has really wanted to stay on this horse.  While he has great speed, he does not need the lead and has shown in previous starts that he can pass horses.  Should Smith decide to rate him off the pace, it might allow him to get extra distance as the pace will be cooler, but it also might let two of his main pace rivals, Neoequos and Disruptor, get that much more comfortable walking the dog up front.