Arkansas Derby Picks

Pace: If there is a sure bet in this race, it might be that the #9 Cornucopian (7/5) will be on the lead. The combination of his natural speed, outside post position, and having jockey John Velazquez aboard ensures it. The question will be how fast he goes and whether anyone can truly press him. Velazquez is a master of controlling pace in races that seemingly have loads of it. Remember when he wired the field in the Cigar Mile (G2) two years ago with Hoist the Gold? He is as good as they come at getting a young horse to relax on the lead and get into a rhythm. That said, #5 Speed King (15/1) has some legitimate speed as well as he went to the front in his first three starts before sitting off the pace last time out, but the recent bullet works for trainer Ron Moquett makes me think they’ll send. However, outside of those two, there is not much speed. Maybe trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Nik Jaurez decide to send with #4 Bestfriend Rocket (20/1), but that horse has been successful tracking the pace. The fractions might be strong, but I do not think they will go quite as fast as they did in the Rebel (G2) just over a month ago.

#8 Coal Battle (7/2) – The plucky underdog from the Lonnie Briley barn has answered the bell at every call as he is a perfect 5-5 on dirt with four straight stakes victories. The $70,000 purchase at the Texas Summer Yearling Sale and son of Coal Front (standing for $2,000) might have a price, and pedigree, that pales in comparison to the rest of the field, but he was hardly overlooked given he was the eighth most expensive horse taken that weekend where the average sale price was $18,000. That said, few could have expected him to be a million-dollar winner before April of his three-year-old season. Coal Battle has shown the ability to do a little bit of everything. He’s won on the lead. He’s won tracking the pace. He’s won closing from the back of the field. He’s won sprinting on a wet track. He’s won routing on a fast track. He’s won at four different tracks. He’s won at four different distances. When it comes down to it, it is hard to poke holes in what he can do. The most common refrain is likely that his Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) have not been as strong as you might expect for a top Kentucky Derby contender, but that was the critique of him going into the Rebel (G2) when his then-career-best BSF was an 84. He promptly won that race and earned a 91 BSF. We have not seen many eye-popping BSF from anyone outside of California on the Derby Trail this year, save Magnitude who was on the Derby Trail for about 48 hours. Coal Battle appears to be able to run for days and will get a perfect trip on Saturday given the pace scenario. Cornucopian and Speed King will go out 1-2 and you can expect Coal Battle and Bestfriend Rocket to be sitting in tracking position behind the early speed. Briley likes to work Coal Front three furlongs before a race to remind the horse, and jockey, when he needs to make his move. Briley would be 0-15 this meet at Oaklawn Park if not for Coal Battle. Yes, Cornucopian and Sandman likely have more natural ability with the latter trying two turns for the first time and the former perpetually winning the gallop out, but not the race, I will side with the proven winner at the best price of the three favorites.

#9 Cornucopian (7/5) – Every year a horse, often by no fault of its own, becomes a lightning rod on social media and this year our winner in Cornucopian. It is a perfect combination of the connections and the horse’s sudden ascendence to a Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep, which makes people online salivate over the opportunity to give out hot takes masquerading as definitive fact. There is no middle ground on Cornucopian. You either believe he is going to win this race by a pole, or you believe he might not finish the race until sometime on Tuesday. Of course, now I am the only guilty of hyperbole. That said, very few people believe he will run a “good” race. Most people believe he will either turn in the sort of spine-tingling effort that he teased was possible a month ago in his debut sprinting six furlongs over this track on the Rebel Stakes Day undercard or they believe he will run a dud and finish as an also-ran after tiring in his first attempt going two turns in a Grade 1 in only his second career start. As with most things in life, the truth is likely somewhere between those two points, which is why you’re hopefully reading this column. Yes, Cornucopian is taking a massive jump up from his first to second start facing winners and Grade 1 competition while trying to conquer nine furlongs on his way to a potential birth in the Kentucky Derby. We have rarely seen this aggressive move work, though it did work for Taiba in 2022 when he won in debut at six furlongs and then won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his second start. However, he was technically in Tim Yakteen’s barn for that race, so the numbers will not be reflected in Baffert’s trainer stats. Optimists will look at this move and point out that over the last five years Baffert is 12-23 (52%) going sprint to route with last out maiden winners in the second starts. However, the glass-half-empty crowd will raise issue with the fact that none of those races went nine furlongs. Part of the reason for that is you typically stretch out from sprint to route in second starts for two-year-olds or very young three-year-olds before the races get beyond 8.5 furlongs. This is simply an anomalous event without many comparisons, particularly for a barn that seemed to have too many Derby hopefuls just two months ago and suddenly there may be too few. Gaming is cutting back in distance, Getaway Car showed his true colors at the Virginia Derby, Barnes’s recent workouts are less than inspiring, and Madaket Road is being shipped across the country to Gulfstream Park for a prep race. Yet, here is this $1.1 million son of Into Mischief that suddenly has leapfrogged them all and is clearly Baffert’s #1B choice for the First Saturday in May being entered in Arkansas Derby behind only his #1A runner, Citizen Bull, who has not lost a race in over six months and who will stay in sunny Southern California for the Santa Anita Derby. From a pedigree standpoint, Cornucopian should be able to get the distance. While Into Mischief’s are best sprinting, the best of them can get nine furlongs the way Life Is Good did. Additionally, he has good dam side pedigree as he is the half-sibling to Guarana who won the Acorn (G1) going a mile in her second career start and the Coaching Club of American Oaks (G1) in her third career start going nine furlongs. He is also the half-sibling to Beatbox who is a G3-winning turf router. There are plenty of other examples of both precocity and winning going long from other half-siblings that it gives you confidence that if any horse can make this jump in their second career start, it is Cornucopian. Then there is the Johnny V factor. It is hard to quantify, but anyone who watches racing regularly knows that if you put John Velazquez on a speed horse and let them get comfortable, it’s over. He is as good as they come at getting a horse, particularly a young horse, out of the gate and into a comfortable position up front where they can relax. The key is getting them to relax so they do not overexert themselves during the first half of the race and will still have plenty left when asked at the quarter pole. Finally, there is Bob Baffert. If any trainer can get a young horse to make this type of jump, it is him. Think of him what you will, but those six-furlong bullet workouts do not lie and are often a dead giveaway that a horse is sitting on a massive effort. I am not betting against Cornucopian as much as I am betting on Coal Battle because taking 7/5, or lower, odds on a horse stretching out and taking on winners for the first time in a Grade 1 race is just not a great bet…but I’m scared of him.

#6 Sandman (3/1) – From the potential of the unknown in Cornucopian to the potential of what could be with Sandman. The Mark Casse runner is earning the dubious distinction of being champion of the gallop out. The son of Tapit is the type of horse that makes you think next time will be the time. If the race was just a few yards longer or the pace was just a touch faster or if he got just a slightly better ride, he could have won. Except none of those those things happen and he keeps running past everyone after the race is over. Now we come to the Arkansas Derby (G1) which should be a race he loves. Added distance and likely strong enough fractions that he can close from off the pace. He is also getting a rider chance from Cristian Torres to Jose Ortiz. I am a fan of Torres, but the jockey switch might point to the fact it was not trainer Mark Casse’s intention for the horse to be intentionally strangled back to ninth during the early going of the Rebel (G2) last time out. I have a hard time thinking that Sandman will suddenly be part of the early pace scenario as he is not a quick horse, but expect Jose Ortiz to get him away in good horse and stay mid-pack so that he is not having to travel wide or hope for a miracle trip on the inside when trying to pass most of the field in the final furlong. Should he get a better trip, he has more than enough natural talent to win this race, but my decision to put him third has more to do with his morning line price of 3/1 as I believe that is a bad bet on a horse that has yet to win a stakes race and has repeatedly proven to come up short against similar competition. He was a $1.2 million purchase last year at the March OBS, which gives him the distinction of being the highest-priced horse in the race, so there have always been lofty expectations. The horse tries hard and sometimes the result is not his fault, but he must prove to me that he can win until I start betting him to win at such a short price. Were his odds to float up to 9/2 or 5/1, I would be MUCH more interested in taking a shot.

#3 Publisher (6/1) – While I feel this is a very top-heavy race with the three top choices asserting themselves easily above the others, if one horse could upset things it is trainer Steve Asmussen’s maiden who keeps jockey Flavien Prat up for the second straight race and gets blinkers added on Saturday. The won of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has traditionally given himself too much to do with his late-running style. After failing to break his maiden in his first three starts in Kentucky, Asmussen has moved him to Oaklawn Park where he seems to have taken to the surface having earned his three best BSF at the track. He was a strong runner-up to eventual Virginia Derby winner American Promise in a December maiden race over a wet track where he got a 92 BSF and from there Asmussen entered him in the Southwest (G3) despite still being a maiden. He had a rough go of things that day and for the next start Asmussen’s son Erik was replaced by reigning Eclipse Award-winning Jockey of the Year Flavien Prat. Again, the horse’s lack of early speed put him 16 lengths back during the early going of the race, but Prat was able to make a move with him and get him up to fourth while making up significant ground late. On Saturday he is getting blinkers added with the clear intention of injecting more speed into him during the early portion of the race so that he does not give himself so much work to do turning for home. Asmussen has suddenly emerged as someone who might be having a pretty good Kentucky Derby crop. Yes, Magnitude was taken off the Derby trail, but he romped in the Risen Star (G2) and then Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby (G2) last weekend. While attention is always warranted for the likes of Cox, Pletcher, Brown, Baffert, and Mott, let’s not forget the all-time winningest trainer in North America.