Guide to Handicapping Synthetic Races
HANDICAPPING SYNTHETIC RACES
The basics of handicapping synthetic races whether it be at Turfway Park or Gulfstream Park is largely the same as how you handicap races on the turf or dirt, but there are certain factors to be aware of that might be different if you are unaccustomed to playing those tracks.
Weather
When handicapping turf and dirt races we often think of rain being the defining factor. Certainly, synthetic tracks can play like dirt tracks when they take on a lot of moisture, but temperature matters too. Particularly at Gulfstream Park, the track plays differently the warmer or colder it is outside. As the temperature heats up, the track expands and horses will run over a deeper surface, which often makes it difficult for frontrunners to wire the field. On warmer days, you want to find horses tracking from off the pace. When the temperature goes down, the tapeta becomes more contracted and as a result frontrunners can glide over the surface while expending less energy. Think of it as running at the beach down by the water where the sand is compact as opposed to running toward the back of the beach where the sand is light and fluffy.
Workouts
Anyone who handicaps turf racing knows that it is helpful to watch horses work over grass, particularly maidens, to see if they “perk up” compared to their dirt workouts. The same logic is true for synthetics. When playing Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, it is so important to look at the workout tabs to see which horses have been working over the surface and how they have been working. At Turfway Park, many times horses will continue to work out at Churchill or Keeneland, but I always like to see a horse get a local work in if they have not run on synthetic before just to make sure they get a feel for the track. The same is true at Gulfstream Park where you can find big value when looking at which horses work over the synthetic, particularly on days when the races get moved off the grass.
Pedigree Matters
As mentioned in the FAQ's below, horses like Hard Spun and Ghostzapper have had numerous offspring with synthetic success. However, sires such as Munnings and Candy Ride both also have strong winning percentages (18%) with their synthetic starters. Meanwhile, traditionally successful stallions such as Into Mischief, Tapit, Uncle Mo, and Medaglia d’Oro have roughly the same win percentage for their offspring on synthetic that you see on turf or dirt. However, superstar sire Gun Runner, is a little below average producing synthetic winners, which is likely tied to his struggles producing notable turf progeny. One of the hot freshman sires in 2023 is Omaha Beach. He is relatively untested as a synthetic sire, and it will be important to track how his progeny do this winter at Gulfstream Park as we see more of them run over the tapeta surface.
Running Lines
It might seem simple, but sometimes you just must trust the horse. For more experienced horses, oftentimes they will have had multiple races over a synthetic surface so you can simply look to see how those efforts compare to their other non-synthetic efforts and what it would take to win that day’s race. It is not uncommon when looking at horses alternating between turf/synthetic or dirt/synthetic that they have a preference and run higher speed figures over one than the other. Finding horses with muddied running lines that alternate between different surfaces can be the ones that provide the most value, particularly at Gulfstream Park in races that were intended for the grass and get moved to the tapeta.
Trainer Angles
Looking at trainer angles is important when playing synthetic tracks, but context is also required since trainers like Saffie Joseph Jr., Mark Casse, and Jose D’Angelo have large barns and turn out hundreds of synthetic starters per year. However, we do see some interesting trends pertaining to trainer success over synthetic surfaces. Below is a chart comparing the overall win percentage and ROI to the win percentage and ROI on synthetic for trainers over the last five years.
| Trainer | Overall win % | Overall ROI | Synthetic win % | Synthetic ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pletcher | 21% | $1.55 | 22% | $1.83 |
| Chad Brown | 25% | $1.68 | 36% | $2.39 |
| Saffie Joseph Jr. | 23% | $1.78 | 22% | $1.71 |
| Brad Cox | 25% | $1.69 | 25% | $1.68 |
| Mark Casse | 16% | $1.57 | 20% | $1.76 |
| Paulo Lobo | 20% | $2.39 | 16% | $2.61 |
| Wesley Ward | 26% | $1.71 | 33% | $1.81 |
| Steve Asmussen | 18% | $1.42 | 7% | $0.70 |
| Brendan Walsh | 16% | $1.68 | 15% | $1.36 |
| Mike Maker | 17% | $1.57 | 19% | $1.60 |
| Jose D’Angelo | 19% | $1.60 | 20% | $1.72 |
While Chad Brown’s numbers are impressive, he has turned out the smallest number of synthetic starters (36) over the last five years. The trainers who should catch your eye are Paulo Lobo and Wesley Ward who run a lot of horses over the synthetic and return a positive flat bet ROI. Obviously, trainers like Brad Cox, Saffie Joseph Jr., and Todd Pletcher also have a good amount of success on synthetic, but their win percentages and ROIs are roughly aligned with their overall numbers. On the flip side, the winningest trainer in North American history, Steve Asmussen, is one of the worst bets when running on a synthetic surface.
Bottom Line
Embrace synthetics. I find them to be a fun alternative to dirt and turf racing as they can provide good value. Much like any other surface, the more time you spend handicapping synthetic races the more comfortable you will get playing them. Do not fret when Gulfstream Park goes off turf and the races are moved to the tapeta. Rather, take a few minutes at look at the PPs to see what sticks out and whether you can find a longshot who might like the new surface. Do not get overwhelmed by the field sizes at Turfway Park, instead focus on local workouts and reliable trainers like Paulo Lobo.
