BET THE SAUDI CUP

2025 SAUDI CUP (G1) HORSE BY HORSE ANALYSIS

This Saturday is the Saudi Cup (G1), which is the richest horse race in the world with a $20 million purse. The best horses from across the world are running and NYRA Bets expert handicapper Matthew DeSantis takes a first look at the field and each of the entries to get you ready for the big race and familiarizes you with some international contenders.

Race: Saudi Cup (G1)
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (nine furlongs) and a one-turn configuration
Post time: 12:40 PM ET

Al Musmak
Trainer: Thamer Aldaihani
Jockey: Muhammad Aldaham
Overview: The son of Night of Thunder is an intriguing entry as most of his career has been on the turf in the United Kingdom for respected trainer Roger Varian, but he came off a five-month break for a new trainer last time out winning at stakes race in Riyadh over the dirt and doing it easily drawing off by 4+ lengths in a 20-horse field. Could the surface switch have unlocked something new in this horse? Maybe. This will be a massive class test for a horse who only has two wins in five starts and failed the hit the board in the other three races, but he is proven at the distance, surface, and track, so there are some things to like for a runner that should be a big price.

Defunded
Trainer: Abdulaziz Khalid Mishref
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Overview: The former Grade 1 winner of the Awesome Again (G1) moved from Bob Baffert’s barn in California to the Middle East last year while finishing seventh in the 2024 renewal of this race. He followed that up with another seventh-place finish in the Dubai World Cup before going to the bench for nine months. He took a start to knock off some rust finishing fifth against allowance company in his first race back before beating allowance company in January as a prep for this race. The 24-race veteran will not be overwhelmed by the moment and has tested himself against the best competition in the world. However, it is fair to ask whether the 7-year-old gelding has lost a little off his fastball in recent starts. He will be tracking the early speed and should appreciate the distance and configuration.

El Kodigo
Trainer: Abdulaziz Meshref
Jockey: Gustavo Calvente
Overview: The former South American runner will be making his first start in the Middle East on Saturday for new trainer Abdulaziz Meshref. The Argentina-bred four-year-old has finished in the exacta in seven of eight career starts with five wins including last time out winning the Gran Premio Jose Pedro Ramirez (G1) in Uruguay while traveling 1 ½ miles. Distance will not be an issue for this runner who tends to do his best running at 12 furlongs. The shorter distance might be an issue as we saw with a horse like Next in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The pace of a one-turn nine-furlong race is quite different than a 12-furlong marathon, so it will be interesting to see how comfortable he gets during the early flow of the race. He has talent, but this is an ambitious placing in a new environment.

Facteur Cheval
Trainer: Jerome Reynier
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Overview: The long-time staple of Group 1 turf racing in Europe made his first start over dirt last time out when he finished third behind Walk of Stars and Imperial Emperor in the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) last month in Meydan. For his first dirt start, there were some positives to note as he beat dirt veterans like Kabirkhan, Generous Tipper, and Clapton to show that he has some ability on this new racing surface. Normally, his running style of coming from the back might be the biggest issue, but the reality is this race sets up better than most for him. There is always a load of speed in this race and the early fractions are faster in this contest than most nine-furlong races because of the one-turn configuration. We remember Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro coming from off the pace, so why not this horse?

Forever Young
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Overview: The third-place finisher in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is your clear favorite for trainer Yoshito Yahagi. The horse appears incapable of running a bad race having never been out of the top three. He won the Saudi Derby (G3) last year over this surface before winning the UAE Derby (G2), so we know shipping to the Middle East will not be an issue. The only potential problem for Forever Young is that he can sometimes get off to a slow start, which could put him in an awkward spot going down the backstretch, but he has such a powerful stride late in the race and has shown the ability to get better with distance that it is hard to imagine a scenario where he is not a part of the stretch call. He is the class of the field, and the only negative is that we are not going to get to see him run against the likes of Sierra Leone or Fierceness on a neutral site as he is always the one making the long trip to North America to face our top horses.

Intense For Me
Trainer: Abdulaziz Meshref
Jockey: Camillo Ospina
Overview: Another South American import who finally got the better of fellow Saudi Cup (G1) entrant El Kodigo last time out after losing to him the previous two starts will be making his first appearance in the Middle East. The son of Fortify has done his best racing going 12 furlongs, so it will be interesting to see if he can adapt to a shorter distance as well. His relative inexperience might provide him with the chance to grow in this spot as he is just starting to scratch his potential. The class test is obvious, but we have seen over the last couple of years that horses coming up from South America are competitive in graded stakes action in the United States with the likes of Didia, Nanda Dea, and Mufasa. I have a feeling this horse has yet to reach his full potential and could provide good value for local connections.

Ramjet
Trainer: Shozo Sasaki
Jockey: Kosei Miura
Overview: One of several Japanese coming over for the race, Ramjet went on a three-race win streak last year at Tokyo, Kyoto, and Ohi. While you might see a Grade 1 win for him at Oi, it is important to draw the designation that is a “local” Grade 1 in Japan on the lesser NAR circuit compared to the JRA tracks where he won a listed stakes and a Group 3. He faced Forever Young twice before and lost both times, first at another “local” Grade 1 at Oi and then last time out in the Tokyo Daishoten (G1) where he showed significant improvement while only being bested by two lengths. Distance should not be an issue at nine furlongs as most of his races have been going longer of late and he clearly is not going to be intimidated by the favorite. The son of Majestic Warrior can win but will be making his first trip out of Japan, so how he ships and takes to the new surroundings is a legitimate question.

Rattle N Roll
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Overview: The lone entrant from the United States in the race tends to be a forgotten about horse in the handicap division. The nine-time winner appears to be back in good form for trainer Kenny McPeek who has nurtured this horse through peaks and valleys during his four-year career from the time he was a precocious two-year-old old until now. It appears the son of Connect is on an upward swing after winning the Clark (G2) in November before traveling over to Saudi Arabia early and getting a dominant win in the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3), which serves as the local prep. Jockey Joel Rosario comes back overseas to retain the mount. The biggest issue with Rattle N Roll is that when expectations are at the highest, he can falter, but while he might be the only representative for the Stars and Stripes, he will still be an underdog to Forever Young and potentially Ushba Tesoro. He has a versatile running style, and the distance/configuration should be set up nicely for him.

Romantic Warrior
Trainer: Danny Shum
Jockey: James McDonald
Overview: The Hong Kong import sired by Acclamation is an elite turf horse who has 18 career victories in 23 starts, however, the decision for the connections to run him on the dirt does raise some serious questions for the race. We saw a horse like City of Troy this past fall look dreadful in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) when running on the dirt for the first time after an illustrious (but brief) turf career. Romantic Warrior does not have much to prove on the grass after demolishing the field in the Jebel Hatta (G1) last time out in Meydan. When watching the horse train, he certainly moves like a turf horse, and you must wonder how he responds to the kickback on Saturday over a track that even good dirt horses do not always enjoy. If the race was over synthetic, he would likely be a stronger choice, but he is a play against for me on this surface despite him being the most proven winner in the field.

Ushba Tesoro
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
Jockey: Akira Sugawara
Overview: The winner of the 2023 Dubai World Cup (G1) came up just a nose short last year in this race being edged out by Senor Buscador at the wire. He is a late-running horse for trainer Noboru Takagi who has danced every dance across the world from the big races in the Middle East and Japan to coming over for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He has not run as well lately finishing 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) this year and then being a well-beaten fourth in his comeback race at Oi against Forever Young and Ramjet. The eight-year-old is closing in on the end of his career, but the pace setup and configuration of this course always makes him dangerous. If they go too fast up front, as they did last year, you know he will come with his patented late run and once he starts rolling down the center of the track, he is hard to deny. Can the old man recapture glory on last time? I would like to think so.

Wait to Excel
Trainer: Thamer Aldaihani
Jockey: Adel Alfouraidi
Overview: The runner-up to Rattle N Roll in the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3) has run on the dirt the last three times out after starting his career running on turf in the United Kingdom. The son of Postponed was more of a turf marathoner but since coming back from a 16-month layoff this past November, he has shortened up slightly to running 9-10 furlongs. He appears to have taken to the new surface and distance. Saturday will be a massive class test for a horse that has yet to see elite competition on the dirt, but the fact he was second best to Rattle N Roll, who will likely be one of the top choices, shows that he can at least be in the conversation as an upset shot for an underneath finish.

Walk of Stars
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Tadgh O’Shea
Overview: The Meydan-based runner is coming off a career best performance after winning the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) last time out while beating Imperial Emperor and Facteur Cheval. The son of the legendary sire Dubawi has not missed the exacta in his last five starts while collecting two wins the last two times out. Perhaps the performance that stands out most to me was his effort two back when he beat the horse Auto Bahn by an astounding 11 lengths as this was the horse that finished second to Forever Young by two lengths in the UAE Derby (G2) last year. Admittedly, it was Auto Bahn’s first race since that effort, but to beat a horse of that caliber is still telling of his talent. He has good early speed and expect him to be a part of the early mix. The question will be whether he gets sucked up into the pace too much to sustain his run or whether he can stalk just behind the leaders and get first crack down the long homestretch.

Wilson Tesoro
Trainer: Noburo Takagi
Jockey: Yuga Kawada
Overview: Another hard-knocking entry from Japan, Wilson Tesoro has always faced good competition overseas whether it was Forever Young, Lemon Pop, or Crown Pride. While he has traveled outside of Japan, it will be only his second time in the Middle East as last year he finished fourth in the Dubai World Cup (G1). That effort should give supporters some confidence that he can hang with the best in the world as he has not missed the exacta since that race. I do believe he is at his best at nine furlongs and I love that he picks up jockey Yuga Kawada who is one of the best in the world. The son of Kitasan Black should present outstanding betting value for a horse that has held his own against the favorite and has proven the ability to ship to the Middle East while running competitively against worldwide Grade 1 company.

Wootton’Sun
Trainer: Abdullah Mishref Al-Kahtani
Jockey: Ricardo Ferreira
Overview: Yet another horse who started his career on the turf in Europe is now running on dirt in the Middle East. The son of the great Wootton Bassett finished third in the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3) to Rattle N Roll and Wait To Excel last time out, but had a win over the track going 12 furlongs the previous start in the Crown Prince Cup, which is a listed stakes race. He will be making his fourth start back after nearly a one-year layoff, so while that third-place finish last time out was likely his high water mark, it is possible he could find another gear as he continues to get himself back into peak condition. The race should set up nicely for him as he is a mid-pack runner who can take advantage of the early speed, but will not have so much work to do coming for home. I do wonder if he is a bit better going longer, but if the field comes back to him, he has a chance at a price to hit the board.

Scotland Yard
Trainer: Nicholas Bachalard
Jockey: Luis D. Morales
Overview: It is hard to know what to make of this horse who finished eighth in last year’s renewal of the race. At times he has looked dominant beating lesser company as he did last October winning an allowance race by 16 lengths. He followed that up with a massive 13 ½ length victory in the Saeed Al Majed Cup, but it appears that whenever he goes against the upper echelon in the sport, he falls back down to earth. A prime example is his last effort in the Tw Holy Mosques Cup (G3) where he was a complete non-factor and finished 14th in a 20-horse field. He will be a massive price, but he is not for me given his propensity for showing up small at the biggest moments.