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<h2 data-block-key="3ewsn">HIDDEN! DUBAI WORLD CUP HORSE-BY-HORSE ANALYSIS</h2>Saturday, March 30 will feature one of the more prestigious races for the older handicap division as the Dubai World Cup (G1) goes off with a probable field of 12. Several horses that competed in the Saudi Cup (G1) are staying over in the Middle East for this race, but it also features several new shooters coming in from the United States, Japan, and the Middle East. NYRA Bets expert handicapper Matthew DeSantis takes a first look at the field and each of the entries to get you ready for the big race and familiarizes you with some international contenders.Race: Dubai World Cup (G1) Track: Meydan Racecourse Distance: 1 ¼ miles (ten furlongs or 2000 meters) Surface: DirtCONTENDER: USHBA TESORO Sire: Orfevre Trainer: Noboru Takagi Career Record: 33: 11-2-5 Overview: Don’t let the career record of this seven-year-old fool you. He has become an absolute monster since switching to dirt in 2022 where he has won eight of his last 11 races. He came up agonizingly short against Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup (G1), but still has three Grade 1 victories of his own, which includes taking last year’s edition of this race. Like Senor Buscador, he is a closer, which might be more challenging than in the Saudi Cup given the two-turn configuration and then not having quite as much speed signed on for the race. Look for him to be positioned near the back of the field and make a furious run late as he did last year. He fires nearly every time out and clearly likes the track. A dangerous threat no matter the pace dynamics.CONTENDER: DERMA SOTOGAKE Sire: Mind Your Biscuits Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi Career Record: 11: 4-1-2 Overview: The son of legendary New York-bred Mind Your Biscuits, Derma Sotogake is returning to the track that was the highwater mark of his career when he absolutely crushed the field in last year’s UAE Derby (G2) and announced himself as a major player in the Kentucky Derby picture. He ultimately finished sixth at Churchill Downs despite a rough start and was not seen for nearly six months until he ran a surprisingly good second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to White Abarrio. He is coming off a fifth-place finish in the Saudi Cup (G1), which was a solid effort given that he was close to the hot pace and stayed with the top group of horses as there was a sizeable gap back to sixth place. He has good tactical speed and should sit a tracking trip. The two-turn configuration and pace dynamics favor him a bit more than in the Saudi Cup. Plus, remember that he suffered a minor eye injury in transport from Japan to Saudi Arabia ahead of his last race. He is healed and primed for a big effort at Meydan.CONTENDER: DEFUNDED Sire: Dialed In Trainer: Abdulaziz Mishref Career Record: 21: 7-5-2 Overview: The former Bob Baffert-trained horse was sold to Middle Eastern interests late last year and ran seventh in the Saudi Cup (G1). It was his first effort overseas after not racing in nearly five months, so you can easily make an excuse for the dull effort. He has some positional versatility in his running style as he has gone gate-to-wire in the pace while also winning from well off the pace. He is a multiple Grade 1 winner and has traditionally been an honest horse as evidenced by hitting the board 67% of the time while competing almost exclusively against graded stakes company the last three years. Depending on the post draw and pace dynamics, he is an interesting horse to consider at what will be an honest price.CONTENDER: KABIRKHAN Sire: California Chrome Trainer: Doug Watson Career Record: 5: 4-1-0 Overview: Perhaps the biggest wildcard in the race, Kabirkhan has gone from breaking his maiden in a muddy, overgrown track in Kazakhstan to being a Group 1 winner in a matter of five races. He has already aced the 10-furlong test two races ago while easily besting the competition last time out at 9.5 furlongs in the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) where he dispatched two of his fellow Dubai World Cup (G1) entrants—Clapton and Military Law. That said, those two horses are likely to be significant longshots, and this will be a much tougher test. He has a perfect running style for the race as he likes to track the pace but travels nicely without needing to be on the lead. He is sure to be among the betting favorites and could announce his arrival on the world stage in a big way.CONTENDER: NEWGATE Sire: Into Mischief Trainer: Bob Baffert Career Record: 9: 3-4-0 Overview: Fresh off a win at the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), the son of Into Mischief is headed over to Meydan to test himself against the best in the world. Unlike many Baffert horses, Newgate is not a speed horse and often sits mid-pack and grinds away at his competition. His victory at the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) was a little surprising as generally Into Mischief many trust when his offspring run at the 10 furlong distance. However, Newgate hasn’t finished out of the exacta in his last six races and appears to finally be healthy after taking an 11-month layoff from February of 2023 to January of 20224. Baffert regularly ships horses over to run in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, so he is in capable hands in terms of knowing how to train a horse up to this race. A longer homestretch might benefit his grinding running style as it will give him time to slowly chip away at the leaders.CONTENDER: SENOR BUSCADOR Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Todd Fincher Career Record: 18: 7-2-2 Overview: The feel-good story of the Saudi Cup (G1), the Todd Fincher trainee is coming off a career-defining victory as he made a final late lunge to best Ushba Tesoro while flying down the middle of the track late. I am not as bullish on his chances in Dubai, which is not to suggest what we saw last time out was a fluke. However, he benefited from a very strong pace, and I firmly believe he, perhaps more than any horse in that field, would perform best in a one-turn nine-furlong race. While some believe distance benefits closers, it is often pace that makes them more effective, and he might not get the same setup. Additionally, the two-turn configuration will slow things down a little and give many horses a chance to catch their breather down the latter part of the backstretch going into the far turn. All of that said, he is riding a wave of momentum into Dubai and always makes his run late no matter the pace but might be a tall task to repeat the magic of the Saudi Cup.CONTENDER: WILSON TESORO Sire: Kitasan Black Trainer: Hitoshi Kotegawa Career Record: 15: 7-2-0 Overview: One of the new shooters coming in from Japan, Wilson Tesoro is unlikely to be a familiar name to many North American racing fans, but he is Grade 1-placed in two of his last three efforts. He ran second behind Ushba Tesoro two back at the Tokyo Daishoten (G1) after finishing second behind Lemon Pop at the Champions Cup (G1). Those were his first two tests against graded stakes company after racking up a lot of wins going against lesser competition. The performances showed he belonged in a conversation among the best Japanese dirt horses, but he disappointed last time out in the February Stakes (G1) finishing eighth in a field of 16. He had an ideal trip stalking the pace and while he had to deal with a little trouble in the lane as a horse was drifting out on him, he failed to find more. One might argue the pace of a one-turn mile race was too much for him and he will appreciate getting back to a longer distance going two turns. I would rate him in the second tier of the Japanese entries but will be a generous price.CONTENDER: DURA EREDE Sire: Duramente Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe Career Record: 12: 2-2-2 Overview: He has much in common with two other fellow Japanese runners—Derma Sotogake and Wilson Tesoro. Like Derma Sotogake, he is returning to a track where he experienced success having run second behind his rival in last year’s UAE Derby (G2), which came one race after he took the Hopeful Stakes (G1) in Japan. He has not experienced much success since then, but like Wilson Tesoro, he appeared to be rounding into form as he finished just behind him to get third in both the Champions Cup (G1) and Tokyo Daishoten (G1). However, he then experienced a similar setback finishing a distant twelfth in the February Stakes (G1). Perhaps he will rebound with more distance and getting on a track where he has had success but Dura Erede feels like the longest shot of the Japanese contingent to me.CONTENDER: CRUPI Sire: Curlin Trainer: Todd Pletcher Career Record: 13: 4-2-4 Overview: If you had bet someone last March that Crupi would be running in the Dubai World Cup (G1), you could have made a small fortune. The horse that took eight tries to break his maiden has suddenly strung together four wins in his last six starts, which includes two listed stakes victories and a third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). His pedigree points to loving distance, so the 1 ¼-mile race should be ideal for him, and the key will be how he breaks from the gate. He had a tough time getting away from the gate early in his career and was slow getting involved before making a furious charge late. He started to show better gate speed over the last few starts but went back to his closing ways when he came from last to third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Todd Pletcher is one of the best trainers at getting horses ready to run a longer distance, so I would expect him to be ready and might be able to grind away for a minor award.CONTENDER: LAUREL RIVER Sire: Into Mischief Trainer: Bhupat Seemar Career Record: 9: 5-1-0 Overview: The former Pat O’Brien (G2) winner did not run for 16 months after that race and in the meantime, he went to Middle Eastern connections. He was rusty in his first race back but won the Burj Nahaar (G3) over the Meydan course earlier this month. While he does not have a “need the lead” running style, expect him to be up front in this race as his natural sprinting speed will naturally get him to the lead. It seems a tall task for him to get the 10-furlong distance, but he will ensure there is some pace and if nobody else presses him then crazier things have happened on a track that tends to carry frontend speed. Remember Derma Sotogake went gate-to-wire in the UAE Derby (G2) over this course last year in a race where nobody else wanted to go.CONTENDER: CLAPTON Sire: Brethren Trainer: Chad Summers Career Record: 27: 6-4-8 Overview: Another horse that has shifted to running in the Middle East for trainer Chad Summers, Clapton was a two-time graded stakes winner in 2023 in the United States when he took the Ghostzapper (G3) and Lukas Classic (G2). He was a distant eleventh in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in November before back-to-back third place finishes in his first two tries in Meydan. His last effort was when he finished behind Kabirkhan. He is another horse with an off-the-pace running style and is more of a grinder rather than a horse that displays a sudden burst. He is an honest horse who rarely runs a bad race, but it is notable that his two worst efforts were in the two Grade 1 races last year. In a field of tough runners, he would be a surprise if he hit the board.CONTENDER: MILITARY LAW Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Musabbeh Al Mheiri Career Record: 17: 5-4-0 Overview: A horse who has been running in Meydan since 2019, a nine-year-old who started his career running on the turf in England, he won last time out for the first time in three years. He finished sixth in the aforementioned Al Maktoum (G1) won by Kabirkhan where Clapton finished third. However, he came back and won the Al Maktoum Classic (G2) in his next start where he turned the tables on Clapton and bested him by over four lengths. He has some good tactical speed, so expect him to be ridden aggressively to ensure he stays in touch with the leaders early, but it is hard to see him being a factor turning for home. He would need to get significantly faster in order to contend even for the minor awards.

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History of the Dubai World Cup

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey
1	Forever Young	Yoshito Yahagi	Ryusei Sakai
2	Hit Show	Brad Cox	Florent Geroux
3	Il Miracolo	Antonio Sano	John Velazquez
4	Imperial Emperor	Bhupat Seemar	Tadhg O'Shea
5	Katonah	Doug O'Neill	Silvestre De Sousa
6	Mixto	Doug O'Neill	Frankie Dettori
7	Ramjet	Shozo Sasaki	Kosei Miura
8	Rattle N Roll	Kenny McPeek	William Buick
9	Ushba Tesoro	Noboru Takagi	Akira Sugawara
10	Walk Of Stars	Bhupat Seemar	Mickael Barzalona
11	Wilson Tesoro	Noboru Takagi	Yuga Kawada