BET THE DUBAI WORLD CUP
Dubai World Cup HQ
BETTING THE DUBAI WORLD CUP 101
What: Dubai World Cup
When: March 30, 2024
Where: Meydan Racecourse
How do I bet the Dubai World Cup?
You can bet it on NYRA Bets! Look for Dubai World Cup in Today's Racing menu on race day.
How do I watch the Dubai World Cup?
Tune in to FS2 from 8 AM - 1 PM ET on Saturday, March 30 as it will be broadcast as a supplement to America's Day at the Races. You can also stream the races live and watch replays on NYRA Bets.
History of the Dubai World Cup
The Dubai World Cup is one of the most prestigious horse races in the world, attracting top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the globe. The race is part of the Dubai Racing Festival, a series of high-profile horse races held annually at the Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
The Dubai World Cup was first run in 1996 and quickly established itself as one of the most lucrative horse races in the world, with a purse of $6 million.
NYRA Bets customers can watch and bet on the Dubai World Cup and other races from more than 300 race tracks worldwide, making it easy for fans to enjoy the action from anywhere. Be sure to check out the Dubai World Cup promotions available on the Promotions Calendar.
If you're looking to bet on the Dubai World Cup or any other horse race, NYRA Bets is the place to be. With a wide range of betting options, live streaming, and promotions, NYRA Bets is the ultimate destination for horse racing fans.
Expert Picks: Dubai World Cup, POST TIME 12:35 PM ET
Pace: While several horses are coming back from running in the Saudi Cup (G1), including your winner #10 Senor Buscador, the pace dynamics, track configuration, and distance lead to a completely different pace scenario in Saturday’s Dubai World Cup (G1). Last month we saw a very hot pace around a one-turn 9-furlong race with several horses contending for the lead, but in Meydan we are getting a two-turn race going 1 ¼ miles in which there is minimal front-end speed. Horses like White Abarrio, Lemon Pop, and National Treasure opted out from running here and a horse like Saudi Crown has decided instead to run the Godolphin Mile (G2). As a result, #7 Laurel River is the only horse that represents early speed as he is stretching out from sprinting. I am skeptical that he can get the distance, but the fact he will not be pressed on the front end means horses sitting a more traditional tracking trip should be upgraded in your analysis while horses that are reliant on a hot pace may struggle to close under these circumstances. #6 Kabirkhan, #4 Derma Sotogake, and #9 Newgate are enticing as they should be sitting tracking trips just off the pace.
#9 Newgate (8/1) – The Bob Baffert trainee presents the best value in the field based upon the morning line pricing. Fresh off a win in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), Newgate finally appears healthy after not racing for 11 months between February of 2023 and January of 2024. However, the son of Into Mischief would appear to have a perfect setup in this race. He is not a typical Baffert speed horse in that he does not need the lead and has more of a grinding running style. That said, due to the dearth of speed in the race, I would expect Newgate to be sitting third or fourth in the early going which would put him in an ideal position come the top of the stretch to slowly chip away at the leader. While many handicappers are skeptical about the Into Mischief pedigree getting the classic 10-furlong distance, Newgate’s form has quelled those concerns as we know he can win at this distance, and it is not a projection. NYRA's own Acacia Clement is over in maidan and has reported that Newgate looks tremendous in the mornings and is very fit and ready for this race. Remember, Baffert is a four-time winner of the Dubai World cup, most recently with Country Grammer in 2022 and Arrogate in 2017. He knows how to get horses ready for these races and understands the travel and schedule requirements necessary to be successful in this spot. We may not end up getting the morning line price, but Newgate has shown incredible consistency throughout his career having hit the exacta in his last six races. While I do not see a big separation between my top three choices, I will always side with the best price among those three when deciding on who will be my top pick.
#4 Derma Sotogake (4/1) – The runner up to the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) is returning to the track that serves as the high watermark of his career when he dominated last year's UAE Derby (G2) in gate-to-wire fashion and firmly stamped itself as one of the top three-year-olds in the world. Ultimately, we have only seen Derma Sotogake run three times since then, which was a 6th place in the Kentucky Derby (G1), followed by the runner up finish at Santa Anita, and then most recently a 5th place finish in the Saudi Cup (G1). He was much closer to the pace in the Saudi Cup (G1) and lacked the necessary closing kick that you saw from eventual winner Senor Buscador and fellow Japanese contender #11 Ushba Tesoro. However, the Dubai World Cup (G1) sets up much more like the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in that Derma Sotogake should be able to sit a very close tracking trip behind the early speed of Laurel River and has demonstrated to have the stamina and durability to handle 10 furlongs. The son of legendary New York-bred Mind Your Biscuits, can be a mercurial horse who is prone to getting lathered up or being slightly agitated ahead of the gate, but he has settled in nicely in Dubai and seems to like his surroundings which would indicate that he is sitting on a strong effort. Superstar jockey Christophe Lemaire remains in the saddle and this race feels like one that is set up for him to win. As much as I love him as a horse, I do question whether he can win in these spots as he's come up short the last couple of times.
#6 Kabirkhan (7/2) – Perhaps no horse has had a more remarkable journey to the Dubai World Cup (G1) than Kabirkhan who started off as a very modest $12,000 purchase at the Keeneland September sales as a yearling. He debuted running in Kazakhstan, which is not exactly a hotspot for top international horses. If you have not seen the video of his debut race, make sure to seek it out because it truly was humble beginnings as he is racing over a muddy track in the middle of an overgrown field. Yet, within five career starts he is now the second choice in one of the premier races in the world. He has an advantage over many horses in this field and that he has raced over this course multiple times for new trainer Doug Watson as he has dismantled the competition in both races including last time out when he easily cruised to victory over fellow Dubai World Cup (G1) entrants #1 Clapton and #8 Military Law. He possesses an ideal running style for Saturday’s contest as he should be tracking within a few lengths of the early pace and has shown no issues with stamina or distance. He has good tactical speed and while not quite a “push button” horse, he certainly has another gear when asked in the stretch. Making a potential win even more remarkable is the fact he is the son of former Dubai World Cup (G1) winner California Chrome who won this race in 2016 after being the runner up the year before. California Chrome has a rabid fanbase, which appears to have been inherited by Kabirkhan so I would expect him to perform quite well at the betting windows as you might not get the morning line price. He absolutely belongs in this race based upon his form and figures and Saturday could serve notice that the top dirt horse in the world was completely overlooked at the most prominent American sale and now resides overseas.
#11 Ushba Tesoro (5/2) – The seven-year-old Japanese horse who discovered a new life when he switched from turf to dirt nearly two years ago is looking to become only the second horse to repeat as Dubai World Cup (G1) winner in the history of the race. Currently, the only horse to hold that distinction is Thunder snow who went back-to-back in 2018 and 2019. Ushba Tesoro will have his work cut out for him on Saturday as he will no longer benefit from the ideal pace setup he had in last year's race or more recently in his runner-up finish in the Saudi Cup (G1) where he was barely nosed out by eventual winner Senor Buscador. Last year's edition of the Dubai World Cup (G1) featured significantly more early speed and a mad scramble for positioning into the first turn, which in turn allowed Ushba Tesoro to sit in the back of the pack before making his devastating run late. Much like his fellow closer, Senor Buscador, he always makes his run, but as mentioned above, this race feels more like the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) where he was out finished by fellow Japanese contender Derma Sotogake. In that race the pace was solid, but not overwhelming and we saw Ushba Tesoro flatten out while finishing fifth. All reports from Meydan indicate that he is an eye-catching horse who looks physically ready to run his race on Saturday, but it will take a big effort for him to replicate last year's victory. However few horses in the field can boast the recent form of this son of Orfevre who has won eight of his last 11 races including three grade ones. It feels dangerous to count him out, but I do not like using him as a win bet at his morning line price.
Strategy: In my eyes the top three horses separate themselves quite a bit from the rest of the field due to the pace scenario. I do not have a large gap between them and as a result I would use all of them in different capacities both in horizontal sequences as well as in vertical wagering. Certainly, you must respect horses like Ushba Tesoro and Senor Buscador for their ability to close under virtually any circumstance, but the dynamics of this race would lead me to think that using horses with good early speed is going to be the way to go. While I do not expect Newgate to hold his value from the morning line price of 8/1, he currently represents the best bet in the field given the trainer, pace, and form. That said, I would wait until betting is underway in this race before making my final decision about how to play win bets and vertical wager by attacking the horse among the top three that ends up being the best value.
DUBAI WORLD CUP HORSE-BY-HORSE ANALYSIS
Saturday, March 30 will feature one of the more prestigious races for the older handicap division as the Dubai World Cup (G1) goes off with a probable field of 12. Several horses that competed in the Saudi Cup (G1) are staying over in the Middle East for this race, but it also features several new shooters coming in from the United States, Japan, and the Middle East. NYRA Bets expert handicapper Matthew DeSantis takes a first look at the field and each of the entries to get you ready for the big race and familiarizes you with some international contenders.
Race: Dubai World Cup (G1)
Track: Meydan Racecourse
Distance: 1 ¼ miles (ten furlongs or 2000 meters)
Surface: Dirt
CONTENDER: USHBA TESORO
Sire: Orfevre
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
Career Record: 33: 11-2-5
Overview: Don’t let the career record of this seven-year-old fool you. He has become an absolute monster since switching to dirt in 2022 where he has won eight of his last 11 races. He came up agonizingly short against Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup (G1), but still has three Grade 1 victories of his own, which includes taking last year’s edition of this race. Like Senor Buscador, he is a closer, which might be more challenging than in the Saudi Cup given the two-turn configuration and then not having quite as much speed signed on for the race. Look for him to be positioned near the back of the field and make a furious run late as he did last year. He fires nearly every time out and clearly likes the track. A dangerous threat no matter the pace dynamics.
CONTENDER: DERMA SOTOGAKE
Sire: Mind Your Biscuits
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Career Record: 11: 4-1-2
Overview: The son of legendary New York-bred Mind Your Biscuits, Derma Sotogake is returning to the track that was the highwater mark of his career when he absolutely crushed the field in last year’s UAE Derby (G2) and announced himself as a major player in the Kentucky Derby picture. He ultimately finished sixth at Churchill Downs despite a rough start and was not seen for nearly six months until he ran a surprisingly good second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to White Abarrio. He is coming off a fifth-place finish in the Saudi Cup (G1), which was a solid effort given that he was close to the hot pace and stayed with the top group of horses as there was a sizeable gap back to sixth place. He has good tactical speed and should sit a tracking trip. The two-turn configuration and pace dynamics favor him a bit more than in the Saudi Cup. Plus, remember that he suffered a minor eye injury in transport from Japan to Saudi Arabia ahead of his last race. He is healed and primed for a big effort at Meydan.
CONTENDER: DEFUNDED
Sire: Dialed In
Trainer: Abdulaziz Mishref
Career Record: 21: 7-5-2
Overview: The former Bob Baffert-trained horse was sold to Middle Eastern interests late last year and ran seventh in the Saudi Cup (G1). It was his first effort overseas after not racing in nearly five months, so you can easily make an excuse for the dull effort. He has some positional versatility in his running style as he has gone gate-to-wire in the pace while also winning from well off the pace. He is a multiple Grade 1 winner and has traditionally been an honest horse as evidenced by hitting the board 67% of the time while competing almost exclusively against graded stakes company the last three years. Depending on the post draw and pace dynamics, he is an interesting horse to consider at what will be an honest price.
CONTENDER: KABIRKHAN
Sire: California Chrome
Trainer: Doug Watson
Career Record: 5: 4-1-0
Overview: Perhaps the biggest wildcard in the race, Kabirkhan has gone from breaking his maiden in a muddy, overgrown track in Kazakhstan to being a Group 1 winner in a matter of five races. He has already aced the 10-furlong test two races ago while easily besting the competition last time out at 9.5 furlongs in the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) where he dispatched two of his fellow Dubai World Cup (G1) entrants—Clapton and Military Law. That said, those two horses are likely to be significant longshots, and this will be a much tougher test. He has a perfect running style for the race as he likes to track the pace but travels nicely without needing to be on the lead. He is sure to be among the betting favorites and could announce his arrival on the world stage in a big way.
CONTENDER: NEWGATE
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career Record: 9: 3-4-0
Overview: Fresh off a win at the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), the son of Into Mischief is headed over to Meydan to test himself against the best in the world. Unlike many Baffert horses, Newgate is not a speed horse and often sits mid-pack and grinds away at his competition. His victory at the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) was a little surprising as generally Into Mischief many trust when his offspring run at the 10 furlong distance. However, Newgate hasn’t finished out of the exacta in his last six races and appears to finally be healthy after taking an 11-month layoff from February of 2023 to January of 20224. Baffert regularly ships horses over to run in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, so he is in capable hands in terms of knowing how to train a horse up to this race. A longer homestretch might benefit his grinding running style as it will give him time to slowly chip away at the leaders.
CONTENDER: SENOR BUSCADOR
Sire: Mineshaft
Trainer: Todd Fincher
Career Record: 18: 7-2-2
Overview: The feel-good story of the Saudi Cup (G1), the Todd Fincher trainee is coming off a career-defining victory as he made a final late lunge to best Ushba Tesoro while flying down the middle of the track late. I am not as bullish on his chances in Dubai, which is not to suggest what we saw last time out was a fluke. However, he benefited from a very strong pace, and I firmly believe he, perhaps more than any horse in that field, would perform best in a one-turn nine-furlong race. While some believe distance benefits closers, it is often pace that makes them more effective, and he might not get the same setup. Additionally, the two-turn configuration will slow things down a little and give many horses a chance to catch their breather down the latter part of the backstretch going into the far turn. All of that said, he is riding a wave of momentum into Dubai and always makes his run late no matter the pace but might be a tall task to repeat the magic of the Saudi Cup.
CONTENDER: WILSON TESORO
Sire: Kitasan Black
Trainer: Hitoshi Kotegawa
Career Record: 15: 7-2-0
Overview: One of the new shooters coming in from Japan, Wilson Tesoro is unlikely to be a familiar name to many North American racing fans, but he is Grade 1-placed in two of his last three efforts. He ran second behind Ushba Tesoro two back at the Tokyo Daishoten (G1) after finishing second behind Lemon Pop at the Champions Cup (G1). Those were his first two tests against graded stakes company after racking up a lot of wins going against lesser competition. The performances showed he belonged in a conversation among the best Japanese dirt horses, but he disappointed last time out in the February Stakes (G1) finishing eighth in a field of 16. He had an ideal trip stalking the pace and while he had to deal with a little trouble in the lane as a horse was drifting out on him, he failed to find more. One might argue the pace of a one-turn mile race was too much for him and he will appreciate getting back to a longer distance going two turns. I would rate him in the second tier of the Japanese entries but will be a generous price.
CONTENDER: DURA EREDE
Sire: Duramente
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Career Record: 12: 2-2-2
Overview: He has much in common with two other fellow Japanese runners—Derma Sotogake and Wilson Tesoro. Like Derma Sotogake, he is returning to a track where he experienced success having run second behind his rival in last year’s UAE Derby (G2), which came one race after he took the Hopeful Stakes (G1) in Japan. He has not experienced much success since then, but like Wilson Tesoro, he appeared to be rounding into form as he finished just behind him to get third in both the Champions Cup (G1) and Tokyo Daishoten (G1). However, he then experienced a similar setback finishing a distant twelfth in the February Stakes (G1). Perhaps he will rebound with more distance and getting on a track where he has had success but Dura Erede feels like the longest shot of the Japanese contingent to me.
CONTENDER: CRUPI
Sire: Curlin
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Career Record: 13: 4-2-4
Overview: If you had bet someone last March that Crupi would be running in the Dubai World Cup (G1), you could have made a small fortune. The horse that took eight tries to break his maiden has suddenly strung together four wins in his last six starts, which includes two listed stakes victories and a third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). His pedigree points to loving distance, so the 1 ¼-mile race should be ideal for him, and the key will be how he breaks from the gate. He had a tough time getting away from the gate early in his career and was slow getting involved before making a furious charge late. He started to show better gate speed over the last few starts but went back to his closing ways when he came from last to third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Todd Pletcher is one of the best trainers at getting horses ready to run a longer distance, so I would expect him to be ready and might be able to grind away for a minor award.
CONTENDER: LAUREL RIVER
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Career Record: 9: 5-1-0
Overview: The former Pat O’Brien (G2) winner did not run for 16 months after that race and in the meantime, he went to Middle Eastern connections. He was rusty in his first race back but won the Burj Nahaar (G3) over the Meydan course earlier this month. While he does not have a “need the lead” running style, expect him to be up front in this race as his natural sprinting speed will naturally get him to the lead. It seems a tall task for him to get the 10-furlong distance, but he will ensure there is some pace and if nobody else presses him then crazier things have happened on a track that tends to carry frontend speed. Remember Derma Sotogake went gate-to-wire in the UAE Derby (G2) over this course last year in a race where nobody else wanted to go.
CONTENDER: CLAPTON
Sire: Brethren
Trainer: Chad Summers
Career Record: 27: 6-4-8
Overview: Another horse that has shifted to running in the Middle East for trainer Chad Summers, Clapton was a two-time graded stakes winner in 2023 in the United States when he took the Ghostzapper (G3) and Lukas Classic (G2). He was a distant eleventh in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in November before back-to-back third place finishes in his first two tries in Meydan. His last effort was when he finished behind Kabirkhan. He is another horse with an off-the-pace running style and is more of a grinder rather than a horse that displays a sudden burst. He is an honest horse who rarely runs a bad race, but it is notable that his two worst efforts were in the two Grade 1 races last year. In a field of tough runners, he would be a surprise if he hit the board.
CONTENDER: MILITARY LAW
Sire: Dubawi
Trainer: Musabbeh Al Mheiri
Career Record: 17: 5-4-0
Overview: A horse who has been running in Meydan since 2019, a nine-year-old who started his career running on the turf in England, he won last time out for the first time in three years. He finished sixth in the aforementioned Al Maktoum (G1) won by Kabirkhan where Clapton finished third. However, he came back and won the Al Maktoum Classic (G2) in his next start where he turned the tables on Clapton and bested him by over four lengths. He has some good tactical speed, so expect him to be ridden aggressively to ensure he stays in touch with the leaders early, but it is hard to see him being a factor turning for home. He would need to get significantly faster in order to contend even for the minor awards.
