BET SANTA ANITA

BETTING SANTA ANITA

Leading Santa Anita Trainers

Whenever you talk about California racing, you need to start with trainer Bob Baffert. He has dominated the West Coast for two decades and has continued his winning ways in recent years at Santa Anita. What makes Baffert so effective is his success in nearly every type of race whether it be maidens, allowance-level races, or graded stakes. Most of his entries are on the dirt as only 7 of his 374 entries over the last three years of the December to June Santa Anita meet have been on the grass.

Table 1: Leading Trainers for December-June Santa Anita Meet since 2020

Speaking of the grass, the turf in Southern California goes through Phil D’Amato who has won 24.3% of his 103 turf starters over the last three years of the December to June meet at Santa Anita. His entries in those races have finished in the money on 52.4% of occasions. For East Coast horse players, he is the equivalent of Chad Brown in New York. He always has the best turf horses, regularly gets good horses coming over from Europe, and will have multiple live entries in graded stakes turf races. While “the other Chad” has become a punchline in New York, “the other D’Amato” happens regularly out in California.

Another thing to note regarding the top trainers are some of the newer faces. Trainers like Michael McCarthy and Tim Yakteen have seen more success in recent years. While Yakteen has followed in Baffert’s footsteps (he was a former assistant to Baffert) in focusing mostly on dirt races, McCarthy runs a well-rounded barn as he has had success on both surfaces.

Finally, some important context for a few veteran West Coast trainers. Richard Mandella has turned out a low number of starters in comparison to many of his fellow trainers during the last three seasons, but his win and in the money rates are always among the best in the circuit, so take everything coming out of his barn seriously. Meanwhile, trainer Peter Miller stepped away from training for a brief stint, so his overall numbers are a little down when looking at the cumulative total of the last three meets but look for him to be among the top trainers. Finally, trainer Richard Baltas is coming back from a one-year ban for using illegal substances on race day but has served his suspension and is planning to return to Santa Anita. It is unclear just how many horses he will start, but it appears likely that he will have at least a handful of starters the first week of the meet.

Leading Jockeys

We have seen a lot of movement in the California jockey colony over the last several years, however this December through June meet usually brings back a few familiar faces. Flavien Prat has started spending most of his time riding in New York, but will be part of the Santa Anita meet for a few months, which is noteworthy given his success there. Both he and Juan Hernandez ride regularly for trainer Bob Baffert, which explains why they are continually among the most successful riders in the colony since they are getting at least one or two live mounts every day.

Table 2: Leading Jockeys for December-June Santa Anita Meet since 2020

Beyond the top two, we have seen some new blood come into the California colony with all-time European great Frankie Dettori putting off retirement and returning to the West Coast. Another up-and-coming jockey is Tiago Pereira who has done some magnificent work with a horse like Macadamia for Phil D’Amato. Finally, Ramon Vazquez is a jockey is picking up more mounts over the last two seasons and has become a reliable rider for some of the bigger barns in California.

With all the new faces, there are some notable absences from the table as well. Jockeys like Joe Bravo and John Velazquez are going to be stationed primarily at Gulfstream Park this winter after having spent years riding out in California. Additionally, the ageless “Big Money” Mike Smith might not big up as many mounts as he used to, but it is not uncommon to see trainers Bob Baffert and Richard Mandella reach out to Smith to use him on some of the bigger days of the meet.

Santa Anita Track Conditions and the Downhill Turf Course

Santa Anita, like all Southern California tracks, is largely defined by speed. The fractions are simply faster out there than on the East Coast where a “fast” two-turn dirt race might get 48 second and change to the half mile. By Santa Anita standards that is slow. For an East Coast racing fan, when you watch the races and see the fractions you might think there will be a pace meltdown, but that rarely happens. Even on the turf you typically see insanely fast fractions compared to the lackadaisical pace set on the grass in New York. Getting used to new pace dynamics is important.

While the dirt course tends to favor speed, the turf course plays more fairly. You can be successful a few different ways on the grass as it can support a gate-to-wire trip, a tracking trip, or a deep closer. The X-factor for the turf is the Downhill Turf course. Easily my favorite feature of Santa Anita, the Downhill Turf course is used on 6 ½ furlong sprints as well as in some marathon turf races. There are a few things to note regarding the Downhill Turf course.

The inside rail is not particularly advantageous, and you want to be further outside to better handle the turn onto the main track. When handicapping individual horses running the Downhill Turf course, you typically like to use horses that have experience going LONGER than 6 ½ furlongs. The undulation of the course and unique configuration makes it difficult for horses that are used to going a flat six furlongs. Personally, I like to look at horses cutting back from a mile to run the 6 ½ furlongs on the Downhill. From a jockey perspective, pay attention to Frankie Dettori. His decades of experience riding over uneven ground in Europe has made him the master of the Downhill in his short time at Santa Anita. Finally, previous experience on the Downhill Turf course is critical. I will always elevate a horse that has had success going that route over a horse that might grade out a little better but is trying it for the first time.