BET MONMOUTH PARK

MONMOUTH PARK TRACK STATS

Throughout the Monmouth Park meet, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends. Updated through 8/11/24.

What Are Track Trends?.

Track stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through 12 weeks of racing at Monmouth Park. Obviously, as the number of races increases, so will the reliability of the statistical trends we see throughout the meet.

Post Time Favorites Analysis

Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 36.4% rate during 14 weeks of racing at Monmouth Park. Looking beyond just favorites, 66.4% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 10.7% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.

From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.52 (-24.0% ROI) during the meet at Monmouth Park. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Average Field Size – 7.47
Average Dirt Field Size – 6.87
Average Turf Field Size – 8.49
Average OFF TURF Field Size – 6.45

Favorites by Level

• Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 42.3%
• Maiden Claiming race favorites – 35.4%
• Claiming race favorites – 37.1%
• Optional Claiming race favorites – 32.8%
• Allowance race favorites – 32.4%
• Handicap race favorites – 0.0%
• Stakes race favorites – 37.8%

Favorites by Surface and Distance

• Dirt sprint favorites – 36.4%
• Dirt route favorites – 31.3%
• Turf sprint favorites – 51.8%
• Turf route favorites – 28.4%
• OFF TURF sprint favorites – 0.0%
• OFF TURF route favorites – 66.7%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt Sprint Winners (n=132)

• 40.2% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 46.2% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 13.6% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt Route Winners (n=83)

• 19.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 59.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 21.7% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Sprint Winners (n=56)

• 33.9% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 42.9% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 23.2% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Route Winners (n=81)

• 24.7% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 44.4% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 30.9% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF Sprint Winners (n=2)

• 50.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 50.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

OFF TURF Route Winners (n=9)

• 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 100% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

MONMOUTH PARK HISTORICAL TRENDS

Nothing says that summer is around the corner like the start of racing at Monmouth Park. The Jersey track runs from Saturday, May 11 through Sunday, September 15 and is as much a staple of summertime as going to the Jersey Shore or strolling down the boardwalk. The meet is highlighted by the Haskell (G1), which is one of the premiere races for the 3-year-old dirt division. This year’s edition of the Haskell (G1) takes place on Saturday, July 20.

To get you ready for racing in New Jersey, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis dives into some important trainer and jockey trends for Monmouth Park to give you an edge. Make sure to come back each week during the Monmouth Park meet as Matthew will have updated Track Stats that provide thorough winning trip analysis by distance and surface.

Trainers

One of the unique features of Monmouth Park is the sheer volume and diversity of trainers who run there over the summer. You have familiar faces from the New York circuit bringing their horses down, but you have a lot of New Jersey-based trainers in addition to those coming up from different tracks throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Florida.

While I am highlighting some of the more successful trainers over the last three years, it is important to note that during the 2023 meet, there were 20 trainers who made at least 50 starts. Therefore, trainers like Derek Ryan and Jose Camejo might not be included in all the charts below, but they are trainers who will have entries on a regular basis at the track.

Top Trainers at Monmouth Park since 2021

A few things to note for the higher volume trainers like Claudio Gonzalez and Kelly Breen. They make most of their starts in the maiden and claiming ranks. Over the last three years at Monmouth Park, Gonzalez has had 76.9% of his starters running in maiden and claiming races while 65.9% of Breen’s entries have been running in either maiden or claiming races. Therefore, if you are someone who just plays Monmouth Park on big days, you might not see those two trainers in the feature races, but if you play the track consistently, they are two of the more reliable trainers.

You will also notice that some of the highest percentage trainers are the ones who have less volume in entries, which would seem to be the byproduct of them selectively choosing their spots. One additional note is trainer Wayne Potts served a lengthy suspension, which precluded him from running in 2022. His 173 starters signify his starts in 2021 and 2023, so expect him to be more prevalent this meet than his rank might indicate.

The number that is most noteworthy is the success of Robert Falcone Jr., who has a mid-sized barn based in New York, but who has been extremely successful when he brings his horses across the bridge to New Jersey over the last three years. He boasts the highest winning and WPS percentage in the group.

Top Stakes Trainers at Monmouth Park since 2021

More casual horse players will dip into playing a track on their bigger days, so it is important to see who has had stakes success at Monmouth Park over the last three years. Not surprisingly, the New York invaders tend to dominate racing in the Garden State on their big days with Chad Brown leading the way. What makes Brown’s numbers even more impressive is that he typically runs multiple horses in most of the stake races, which means the number of stakes races he entered is lower than his number of starts. You see similar success from other New York-based trainers like Todd Pletcher and Shug McGaughey.

Local trainers Kelly Breen and Eddie Owens Jr. have good success in limited starts and Breen, in particular, represents a trainer that provides outstanding value. Over the last three years, placing a flat $2 win bet on each of Breen’s stake entries would have returned $2.92, which is a 46% return on your investment.

Win Percentage by Shipping Status since 2021

One of the narratives among horse players is the belief New York-based trainers have more success at Monmouth Park with their horses based in New York than the horses that a part of their local strings training on location at Monmouth Park. Therefore, I isolated Brown, Pletcher, and McGaughey entries over the last three years and broke them into three categories: local Monmouth horses, domestic shippers (nearly all from New York), and any foreign shippers. What we see is that the domestic shippers vastly outperform their horses training at Monmouth Park, which is a rather intuitive finding. Their horses based in New York are more likely to be pointed toward stakes races at Saratoga over the summer while their horses based at Monmouth Park might be in a lower tier or simply taking a little time to develop.

One fascinating trend is that Brown rarely debuts a first-time North American starter at Monmouth Park. He has only done it four times in the last three years, and they have yet to win. Keep that in mind in case you see that scenario unfold this summer as Brown’s top first-time North American starters are more likely to make their debuts at Belmont at the Big A or Saratoga.

Jockeys

There are certain circuits where one jockey just stands out above everyone else and that is certainly the case at Monmouth Park as Paco Lopez has been the leading jockey, by a considerable margin, each of the last three years. The jockey colony in New Jersey has had some new faces pop up over the last couple of years, but it has been very consistent up top.

It will be interesting to see how much jockeys like Isaac Castillo, Lane Luzzi, and Madison Olver ride at Monmouth Park this summer as all three have put in a lot of work riding in New York this winter and might have opportunities in both circuits, which could reduce their overall number of mounts for the upcoming meet.

One important thing to note regarding the jockey preferences of the New York-based trainers. Chad Brown has shifted his preferred local jockey from Hector Diaz Jr. to Samy Camacho who rides for him down at Tampa Bay Downs. Over the last two meets at Monmouth Park, Camacho has picked up 34% of Brown’s entries. Meanwhile, both Todd Pletcher and Shug McGaughey turn to Paco Lopez for over 34% of their entries throughout the summer at Monmouth Park.