Betting Belmont at the Big A

FRIDAY, JUNE 14

Pace: The pace complexion of the race is murky due to so many horses trying the turf for the first time. On paper, you can see where the potential speed might come from, but we have seen early speed tendencies shift with the surface for certain horses. That said, if #2 Geopolitics (5/2) can transition from dirt to turf, then she should be right up on the lead along with horses like #1 Sohana (4/1) and #3 Soloshot (3/1) pressing or giving chase. While TimeFormUS gives the race a “hot pace” rating, I think there is a difference between a “hot” pace and a “contested” pace. I believe this race leans more toward the former, but again, much of this is dependent on horses taking to the grass as effectively as they have to the dirt. As a result, I have a hard time seeing the pace collapsing, so I believe your most likely winners will be in the forward group.

#5 Soloshot (3/1) – Honestly, finding horses with top turf sprint form is slim pickings with this group and while trainer Lolita Shivmangal runs a rather low percentage barn, the horse checks several boxes. First, the daughter of Solomini has the two highest turf Beyer Speed Figures (81 and 73) in the field. The next closest turf Beyer Speed Figure is a 64 belonging to #4 Being Betty (5/1). Additionally, Soloshot is a proven winner, which is not something others can say for others. Of the eight slated runners, three are still maidens and two others have never beaten winners. Meanwhile, Soloshot has not only beaten winners, but won a stakes race in her second career start at Finger Lakes as a two-year-old. Despite a strong start to her career on the dirt, she really perked up on the grass and her race two back was particularly strong finishing second behind Lady Mia, who was a well-intended runner and heavy favorite for Christophe Clement. She has good early speed and should be right up with #2 Geopolitics (5/2) for the lead. She also attracts jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. on the mount, and he is at his best tracking the pace, which he should be able to do as Soloshot drew to the outside of her main speed competition.

#1 Sohana (4/1) – Breaking from the inside rail, the Brad Cox trainee will need to flash her speed to avoid getting in a tight spot with #2 Geopolitics (5/2) and #5 Soloshot (3/1) to her outside. She is another horse who is a multi-time winner and has never finished off the board in five career starts. However, like several others in the race, she will be trying turf for the first time. She has run well over two wet tracks and while I do not believe a wet track success is a 1:1 correlation with turf success, I do think it can give some indication of whether a horse could be open to running on grass. She has shown some progress in each start and has won as six and seven furlongs, so the distance should not be an issue for her. Jockey Flavien Prat remains on the mount after guiding her to victory in her last race against state-bred optional claiming competition. She can win from off the pace, but do not be surprised to see Prat send hard from the rail and she might do her best running up front. I give her the slightest edge over the morning line favorite simply because she is a proven winner, though there is rather modest turf pedigree. Cox is winning at a 50% clip during the Belmont at Aqueduct meet and he does not rack up those numbers by putting his horses in spots where they are overmatched.

#2 Geopolitics (5/2) – Despite not breaking her maiden yet, Geopolitics is your morning line favorite for trainer Bill Mott. She is making her first start on grass and that is not typically a winning move for Mott. Over the last five years Mott is only 9% (27-307) when his runners try turf for the first time. When controlling for runners who are trying turf for the first time in stakes races, which are the conditions Geopolitics will have on Saturday, Mott is 0-11 the last five years. Finally, Mott is an astounding 0-41 the last five years when non-maidens try turf the first time with only four hitting the board. While Geopolitics is still a maiden and the above statistic is not directly applicable, it does show that Mott is not a trainer who typically does well with these types of surface switches under any situation. On the track, Geopolitics possesses solid early speed and should be your leader out of the gate. She earned an 85 Beyer Speed Figure for her last effort, which is the top overall figure in the field. If she can transition that speed from dirt to turf, then she is certainly dangerous. There is some limited turf pedigree as her dam, Liza Lu, has produced turf winners before, but they hold a combined 5-75 (6.7%) lifetime record. She is clearly talented, but the daughter of Central Banker has a pair of runner-up finishes while going off as the post time favorite, so be cautious betting at a short price.

#4 Being Betty (5/1) – As mentioned above, Being Betty has the second-best turf Beyer Speed Figure (64) in the field and seems very well intended for the grass as she is out of Lady Joan who was a six-time turf winner and finished her career 14-18 hitting the board on the green stuff. The Philip Serpe trainee broke her maiden sprinting on the grass before facing open company in the Tepin Stakes, which might have been a little too much as she finished fifth. She came back from a five-month layoff with a rather dull effort against state-bred allowance company, but that was going two turns. I like the cutback to sprinting and you do not need to worry about how she projects on a new surface. She is a rather one-paced runner, but jockey Jose Lezcano got some speed out of her in the maiden breaking win, so if he can coax her up near the front then she has a chance to hit the board at a modest price.

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