BET OF THE DAY

FRIDAY, MAY 23

I always enjoy early season two-year-old races as it is exciting to see the siblings of successful horses and the offspring of first-crop sires. The second race today at Churchill Downs features both. #8 Spice Runner (5/2) is the full sibling to Grade 1 winner Gunite and is trained by the same man, Steve Asmussen. The Winchell homebred clearly has lofty expectations and you can tell Asmussen has been taking a long-term approach with this horse, having put him through a series of eight works before his debut. It is relatively uncommon to see so many works for a young horse debuting in May as most other first-time runners have worked between three and five times leading up to their first race. The positive with Spice Runner is that he has been working like a metronome and turning in solid gate works at Keeneland and has gotten over the track well at Churchill Downs in the morning. Jockey Jose Ortiz is in the irons, and he draws to the outside, which is ideal in a sprint as Ortiz can play the break and keep him out of trouble, but he does need to be wary of the horse breaking out toward open space when the gates open. Still, his pedigree, connections, and work pattern make him an easy top pick. #7 Baytown Dreamer (9/2) made his debut over a muddy track at Keeneland while finishing third at odds of 25/1. He has come back from that race in good order putting in a pair of solid workouts over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. The son of Mendelssohn out of a Munnings mare could like just about any surface or track condition with that pedigree but has a chance to move forward over a fast track in his second start. Trainer Paul McEntee has not had much success winning in these spots, so look for this one to be an underneath play. Finally, Asmussen’s other runner with his son Keith on the mount is an intriguing first-timer as #2 Compressed (10/1) will be 2019 Hopeful (G1) winner Basin’s first raced offspring. Much like his stablemate Spice Runner, Compressed has had a nice series of works leading up to his debut with six official workouts and he put in a nice gate work two back when he went four furlongs in 48 second and was ninth of 60 that day at Churchill Downs. The dam side pedigree does not necessarily point to much as Feria de Flores was a turf horse in Europe but has plenty of dirt influence as she was sired by Speightstown out of an A.P. Indy mare. Scratches have shortened this field up, so a horse like Compressed stands a better chance at hitting the board than he might have earlier today. As a sire, Basin might only stand for $5,000, but he was precocious barely losing in debuting and then winning his next two starts including a Grade 1, so if he can pass some of that along, he could be an under-the-radar sire for these early juvenile races.