Longshot of the Day: Race 9 at Fair Grounds
Track: Fair Grounds
Race 9: $54K MSW going 6 furlongs on dirt for 2YO Louisiana breds
Post Time: 5:45 PM ET
Horse: #9 Dr. Hinkley (10/1) use as a win by at 6/1 or higher
Yesterday was Opening Day at Tampa Bay Downs and today we have Opening Day at Fair Grounds, which is one of my favorite tracks as I love the racing, I love Louisiana, and I love New Orleans. Let’s try to get a longshot there today to kick off the meet the right way and I’ll head to the bailout race for the debut runner Dr. Hinkley for trainer Robertino Diodoro. The son of Vekoma has plenty of pedigree to suggest first-out success starting with his sire who has an obscene 24%-win rate with first-out juvenile starters, which is more than double the all-sire average of 11%. Vekoma’s run. They run fast. They run early. So, that’s already a good starting point for a horse that is 10/1 on the morning line, but there is plenty of dam side precocity too. His dam, Alva, has produced two raced foals, both of whom have won, and one of which won in debut. What makes her broodmare success more impressive is who she has been matched with for her first two foals. Her first foal was by Cloud Computing, who is a below average sire with virtually no first-out success and who has been relegated to standing in Pennsylvania. Yet, the foal, Crimson Princess, went on to win in her third start and was a two-time winner in 19 career efforts. Not overwhelming but certainly promising given the status of the sire and considering it was her first foal. For her next foal she was matched with Leofric, a marginally better sire, but still one that only stood for $5,000 at the time. However, their foal, Nine Part, was a smashing success, winning her first four career starts while amassing over $130,000 in career earnings in five starts, which is excellent return on investment for a $46,000 OBS purchase. All of this brings us to Dr. Hinkley. We often speak of jockey upgrades when someone like Flavien Prat or Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over a mount from a less established rider, but what we are seeing here is a massive sire upgrade. Aside from pedigree, you must like the fact she is trained by Diodoro who has been fantastic in these types of spots over the last two years winning debut juvenile dirt sprints at a 31% clip. The horse has been putting in solid workouts and picks up jockey Axel Concepcion. I love the fact the horse draws a little further outside and should be clear of trouble at the start.
Though, he’s not the only interesting price in the race. #10 Bad Joke (10/1) is the half brother to Dapper Moon who broke his maiden at Saratoga in his second career start and went on to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Street Sense (G3), and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Finally, #1 Wherethehitsare (8/1) is a very promising runner for Mitole who has put in a solid series of works. I’m always a little skittish when it comes to backing debut runners breaking from the rail, but if the horse gets off clean, it is obvious from the morning workouts that he can run.